Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
410 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch In Effect Until 10AM...

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Severe thunderstorm event ongoing this evening as outflow driven
complex moves out of the Tennessee Valley and into the local area.
Impressive cold pool driving this activity with temperatures in
the mid 60s in it's wake, not too bad for this time of year.
Outflow over Tennessee is moving SW which should allow western
tier counties to get in on the act before the night is through and
current severe thunderstorm watch configuration handles this well.

Not a ton of instability to work with but temps aloft continue to
cool with -10C values creeping into far north GA at 500 mb. May
prove to be more difficult for MCS to maintain itself once it gets
to the metro and Central GA, but given the strength of
aforementioned cold pool and the fact that NW flow events are over
achievers typically, will continue high pop and svr wording for
most of the area.

This first wave is sure to disrupt the environment for a time this
morning and perhaps into the early afternoon, increasing the
uncertainty for timing of additional storms. NAMNest which has had
the best handle on this activity tonight shows a decent break in
activity for the remainder of the day once this initial activity
clears. In fact , it is Sat evening before next wave enters and
sparks additional strong to severe storm development. Leaned this
way in the grids although keep some form of pops through the
entire day given the uncertainty.

Upper low continues to move southward over the local area through
Sunday with cold temps aloft for this time of year continuing.
Impulses will traverse the overall trough from time to time with
continued timing issues but chances of seeing a cluster move
across most of the area sometime on Sunday looks high.

Deese

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
The forecast area will be under the influence of an upper level
trough/Low pressure system during the long term that is forecast
to hang around through Wednesday before weakening on Thursday with
generally weak WNW flow aloft predominating Thursday and Friday.

Plenty of moisture and instability will be associated with the low
pressure/trough system allowing for scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms.

Forecast High temperatures will run a few to several degrees below
normal through Wednesday and then close to normal Thursday and Friday.
Forecast low temperatures are running close to normal.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

Much of this forecast will depend upon evolution of a series of
storm systems to affect the area over the next 36 hours. The
first of these is moving through NE GA currently with a second
moving in from Kentucky. Have inserted a TEMPO for ATL area sites
but recent indications are first system may miss to the east.
Timing is very difficulty with these systems but have inserted a
separate Prob30 for late afternoon for possible re-development of
storms. Wind calm currently over ATL but should shift to west
with time this morning and remain there for the remainder of this
TAF cycle.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

Medium on TSRA chances and timing.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  70  88  69 /  60  50  30  30
Atlanta         89  72  88  70 /  70  50  40  30
Blairsville     82  64  79  63 /  60  50  60  40
Cartersville    89  69  87  68 /  70  50  50  30
Columbus        92  74  92  72 /  40  40  30  30
Gainesville     86  69  85  68 /  70  50  40  30
Macon           90  72  91  70 /  50  40  30  30
Rome            90  69  87  68 /  70  40  50  30
Peachtree City  90  71  89  69 /  70  40  30  30
Vidalia         91  74  91  73 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for the
following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...
Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...
Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...
Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...
Henry...Jackson...Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Madison...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Newton...North Fulton...
Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Putnam...Rockdale...South Fulton...Spalding...Talbot...Troup...
Twiggs...Union...Upson...Walker...Walton...Washington...White...
Whitfield...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
435 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221000-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
435 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across
the area today and tonight. Isolated to scattered severe storms
can be expected. The most likely hazards will be damaging winds,
large hail, frequent lightning and minor flooding from heavy
rainfall.
A tornado can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected Sunday
through Friday. A few storms could be strong to severe on any
day with the main hazards being strong gusty winds, frequent
lightning and minor flooding from heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested at this time, but spotters are
encouraged to submit storm/damage reports through the web by going
to www.weather.gov/atlanta.

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