Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Atlanta, GA

945 
WWUS52 KFFC 210728
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
328 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

GAC139-210736-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-180721T0745Z/
Hall GA-
328 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HALL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have slowed down and will not 
reach northern Hall County by 345 AM EDT. Therefore, the warning has 
been cancelled. These storms will likely affect Hall County around 
400 AM and could be severe at that time. Stay tuned for possible 
warnings.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM EDT for
north central Georgia.

LAT...LON 3477 8403 3461 8388 3457 8388 3446 8399
      3441 8421 3444 8438 3461 8441 3470 8430
      3477 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 314DEG 31KT 3469 8414 3462 8420 3459 8435 

$$

GAC085-111-123-187-227-291-210745-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-180721T0745Z/
Lumpkin GA-Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Pickens GA-Union GA-Fannin GA-
328 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM EDT
FOR LUMPKIN...SOUTHEASTERN GILMER...NORTHWESTERN DAWSON...
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN
COUNTIES...

At 326 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Hawk Mountain Shelter to Black Gap Shelter to near
Cartecay, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Dahlonega, Dawsonville, Suches, Amicalola Falls State Park, Sequoyah
Lake, Margret, Camp Merrill, Juno, Fausett Lake, Springer Mountain
Shelter, Len Foote Hike Inn, Cartecay, Black Gap Shelter, Lake
Tamarack, Auraria, Stover Creek Shelter, Hawk Mountain Shelter,
Porter Springs, Nimblewill and Roy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8403 3461 8388 3457 8388 3446 8399
      3441 8421 3444 8438 3461 8441 3470 8430
      3477 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 314DEG 31KT 3469 8414 3462 8420 3459 8435 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
153 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 823 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

UPDATE...
Tornado Watch is now in effect for far northwest Georgia. Starting
to see strong development for the storms moving from Kentucky into
Tennessee. Even with the loss of daytime heating, these storms are
moving into a more favorable environment for storm development,
and short term models continue to indicate robust convection
moving into northwest Georgia around/after 10 PM. At this time,
the shear environment over Georgia is not as pronounced, but a
few tornadoes are possible, particularly as these storms will
generally be supercellular in nature. Modeled DCAPE over the
region is high, and expect damaging winds to be the primary
concern, along with potentially large hail. Although storms are
expected to weaken as they move farther into the state, it may be
necessary to expand the watch southward.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 749 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

At the surface, there is high pressure building in from the NE with
a departing low riding a residual boundary along the Carolina coast.
This has led to some subsidence across the area limiting
precipitation activity across much of the region today. We are
seeing slightly better coverage of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across our far southern tier with better deep layer
moisture and instability. Expect this activity to wane this
evening.

The main challenge with this forecast will be in regards to a
potential storm system moving into north GA this evening/overnight.
A somewhat rare pattern is setting up as an upper level low drops
south toward the mid-atlantic over the next couple of days. This
will result in mid/upper level NW flow with shortwave activity
rounding the trough. Given this, there may be a series of
complexes coming out of the north through the weekend. The first
potential complex may quickly move through this evening. Given
that the atmosphere is not exceptionally unstable, the potency of
this system looks fairly weak by the time it arrives toward the
metro around 02-04Z. I think the far NW tier of the CWA may see a
bit more strength with this system as it moves south at or around
sunset. Elevated instability and shear might be enough to overcome
some stable air at the surface. It should be noted that some
guidance is hardly showing any activity at all, while others show
showers/thunderstorms through late tonight. So the model
solutions are all over the place. Either way though, current
feeling is that this complex should diminish as it moves south and
the overall impacts should be fairly limited in coverage.
Whatever impacts there are will be in the form of damaging wind
gusts, small hail, heavy rain and frequent lighting.

Once this complex moves through, at least whatever is left of it as
it crosses the region, we should have a brief reprieve in
precipitation activity...likely through tomorrow morning.
Thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon does look a bit more
widespread with better instability, deep layer moisture and upper
level support. It should be noted however that the overall
activity may be tempered a bit if we have better cloud
coverage/precipitation activity lingering into the morning hours.
So we will will have to keep an eye on the trends. There is a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms with the main impacts being
damaging wind gusts, hail, heavy rain and frequent lightning. The
aforementioned shower/thunderstorm activity may even linger into
the evening/overnight with shortwave activity crossing the region.

A lot of questions remain with this forecast package, but the
them is the same...it will be an unsettled pattern through the
short term.

26

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

For much of the extended period, the forecast area will be under the
influence of upper level troughing associated with an upper level
cutoff low currently located over the Great Lakes region. As the
period begins on Sunday the cutoff low will be moving southeastward
into the Ohio Valley and will then drop southward towards the
southeastern CONUS, with the center of the low positioning over
Georgia by Monday evening. Model guidance is beginning to come into
agreement that a dry slot could limit precipitation chances
somewhat in central Georgia on Sunday. After that, deep moist
convergence will take hold over the area on Monday and Tuesday.

Early next week, the low will slowly deteriorate as it meanders
around the area before opening up and getting absorbed into the
northern westerlies. There is still disagreement on the positioning
of the low. However, a belt of warm and moist southwesterly flow and
isentropic lift on the eastern side of the low is nonetheless
expected to set up over the area during the early parts of the week.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon
and evening each day from Monday until there is a change in the
overall pattern. As such, maintained likely PoPs for each afternoon
and evening through Thursday. Model guidance becomes more divergent
by the end of the period, with the GFS solution indicating dry air
building into the area Friday and the ECMWF solution maintaining
moist conditions and widespread precipitation. Due to these
inconsistencies, I have ended the likely PoPs after Thursday.

High temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees below normal
throughout the extended period, with afternoon highs ranging from
the mid 80s in north Georgia to the low 90s further south. Low
temperatures are forecast to be near normal with morning lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

Much of this forecast will depend upon evolution of a series of
storm systems to affect the area over the next 36 hours. The
first of these is moving through NE GA currently with a second
moving in from Kentucky. Have inserted a TEMPO for ATL area sites
but recent indications are first system may miss to the east.
Timing is very difficulty with these systems but have inserted a
separate Prob30 for late afternoon for possible re-development of
storms. Wind calm currently over ATL but should shift to west
with time this morning and remain there for the remainder of this
TAF cycle.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

Medium on TSRA chances and timing.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  70  88  69 /  60  50  40  40
Atlanta         90  72  88  71 /  70  50  40  40
Blairsville     81  63  80  63 /  50  50  60  40
Cartersville    89  69  87  68 /  60  50  40  30
Columbus        93  74  92  73 /  60  50  30  30
Gainesville     88  70  86  68 /  60  50  40  30
Macon           90  73  91  71 /  60  50  50  40
Rome            90  70  88  68 /  60  50  50  40
Peachtree City  90  70  89  70 /  70  50  40  40
Vidalia         91  75  91  73 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 4 AM EDT early this morning for the
following zones: Catoosa...Dade...Murray...Walker...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1250 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211000-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
1250 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon but a greater
risk for storms is expected later this evening, mainly across
northwest Georgia. Some of the storms could be strong to severe,
with damaging winds the primary threat, mainly along and west of a
Columbus to Atlanta to Gainesville line. Additional storm hazards
will be small hail, locally heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will affect much of north and
central Georgia Saturday into Saturday night. Again, some storms
could be severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy
rain. Large hail could also be possible, especially during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

The threat for thunderstorms will exist Sunday through Thursday, but
the severe potential appears low at this time. Regardless, locally
heavy rain, frequent lightning and brief gusty winds will all be
possible with any showers and storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested at this time, but spotters are
encouraged to submit storm/damage reports through the web by going
to www.weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
207 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

GAZ006-008-210645-
Union GA-Fannin GA-
207 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN UNION AND
NORTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM EDT...

At 207 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Marble to near Nottely Dam to near Culberson...
and moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Nottely Dam, Ivy Log and Culberson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3497 8395 3494 8392 3488 8413 3499 8432
      3499 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0607Z 299DEG 18KT 3520 8396 3502 8409 3498 8422

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
215 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

GAZ005-006-210645-
Murray GA-Fannin GA-
215 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MURRAY AND
NORTHWESTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM EDT...

At 215 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Archville to near Parksville to near Gap
Springs...and moving southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Tennga, Jones Mill, Cisco, Higdon, Colwell, Cohutta Wilderness,
Epworth and Copperhill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3499 8428 3490 8437 3488 8468 3499 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 308DEG 24KT 3519 8445 3506 8464 3504 8481

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
239 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

GAZ008-009-015-016-210715-
Union GA-Towns GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-
239 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UNION...TOWNS...NORTHWESTERN
WHITE AND NORTHEASTERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM EDT...

At 238 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Gumlog to Blairsville to Jones Creek...and moving
southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Hiawassee, Blairsville, Young Harris, Whitley Gap Shelter, Blue
Mountain Shelter, Brasstown Bald, Gumlog, Mountain Scene, Woods Hole
Shelter, Low Gap Shelter, Owltown, Vogel State Park, Track Rock,
Macedonia, Blood Mountain Shelter and Alexanders Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3491 8366 3470 8379 3468 8401 3487 8411
      3490 8401 3499 8395 3499 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 316DEG 25KT 3497 8391 3487 8397 3486 8409

WIND...40MPH