River Flood Warning 133, NWS Atlanta, GA

496 
WGUS82 KFFC 140334
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1034 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...
 
  Armuchee Creek near Armuchee affecting Floyd County

 
GAC115-140404-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0133.000000T0000Z-181114T0334Z/
/ARCG1.1.ER.181113T2130Z.181113T2200Z.181113T2322Z.UU/
1034 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for The Armuchee Creek near Armuchee.
* This takes effect immediately.
* At 9 PM Tuesday the stage was 18.7 feet...and falling
* Flood stage is 19 feet.
* The creek/river will continue to fall.
* At 19 feet...Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of 
  woodlands...fields and pastures begins along the creek upstream and
  downstream from the gage on Old Dalton Road.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3449 8521 3448 8515 3442 8518 3436 8512
      3433 8515 3442 8525             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
244 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Forecast continues to evolve essentially as expected. Somewhat of a
lull in rainfall today through tonight as the deep upper low settles
into the lower Mississippi Valley. More heavy rainfall develops
across the region tomorrow through tomorrow night under strongly
diffluent upper flow ahead of the upper low. PWs remain well above
seasonal normals and strong upper forcing combined with strong
isentropic lift should provide for a prolonged period of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain by midday tomorrow through much of Wednesday
night. Instability is forecast to be minimal at best so I am not
expecting much if any thunder or severe potential. Biggest threat
will obviously be flooding. Some models hinting at a brief threat
for some wintry precipitation tomorrow evening in the extreme
northeast, but potential appears too low to include in the forecast
weather grids at this time.

20

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Extended period begins with the culprit upper low exiting through
KY and Eastern TN and much of the moisture exiting to the east
with it. Mid level dry slot looks to work into the region during
the day Thursday from west to east so there should be a relatively
quick shut off to the rainfall. Late Thursday there appears to be
a window where there is enough wrap around moisture and cold air
across North GA that some snow showers could start mixing in.
Model soundings for that area suggest a shallow but saturated
subfreezing layer below about 850mb with drier air above it which
favors upslope snow showers. Have added snow showers which would
be more likely in the NW facing slopes during the evening hours on
Thursday into the first part of the overnight. Because the low is
rapidly exiting to the east...much of moisture evacuates quickly
with it so the window looks to be only about 6-9 hours or so. Have
not included any appreciable amounts but would not be surprised
to hear about a trace or dusting in some of the higher elevations.
Not anticipating any issues with the snow otherwise.

By Friday...zonal upper flow and dry conditions set the tone for
what should be a nice weekend. Temps look to be near normal for
the weekend after a cold start Friday AM.

A weak upper level system works through the flow on Monday.
Models suggest that it will be moisture starved and may only bring
some clouds and low end rain chances.

Stellman

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Highest rainfall amounts are oriented from our west-central Georgia
counties northeastward into east-central and northeast Georgia.
Soils remain moist enough and stream flows are already high enough
across northwest Georgia to include all but our extreme southeast
counties in a new Flash Flood Watch beginning early Wednesday
morning and continuing through the overnight hours into early
Thursday morning.

20
&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Fairly wide range of conditions expected through 06Z, although a
mixture of MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to predominate. Most
areas IFR or lower after 06Z. Scattered light rain across the
forecast area through 06Z, becoming more widespread and increasing
in intensity by 12Z. Northwest winds 6-10kt, becoming northeast by
04Z-08Z. Wind speeds increase to 8-12kt after 12-14Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Low confidence on cig and vsby timing.
Medium confidence for all other elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          44  48  37  45 /  60 100 100  50
Atlanta         45  48  39  46 /  60 100 100  30
Blairsville     40  47  36  45 /  40  90 100  50
Cartersville    42  48  38  45 /  50 100 100  30
Columbus        48  52  42  49 /  70 100 100  20
Gainesville     44  47  38  44 /  50 100 100  50
Macon           49  51  42  52 /  70 100 100  30
Rome            41  48  38  45 /  40 100  90  20
Peachtree City  44  49  39  47 /  60 100 100  30
Vidalia         53  54  45  55 /  50  90  90  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...
Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...
Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...Crisp...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...
Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...
Glascock...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...
Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...
Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...
Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Towns...
Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren...
Washington...Webster...White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...
Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....Stellman
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
311 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-142015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
311 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of the area through
Thursday AM.

Rain will continue overnight tonight, with an additional 0.25 to
0.5 inches possible on top of what was received today and yesterday.
At times rain may be moderate to heavy, and localized flooding
will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

An extended period of heavy rain is expected through early
Thursday. The rain could be heavy at times with isolated
thunderstorms for portions of central Georgia. As the rain occurs,
an increased threat for river and stream flooding is expected by
the middle of the week. An additional 2 to 3 inches of rainfall is
likely with isolated higher amounts for a large portion of North
and Central GA on Wednesday into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.