Areal Flood Warning 15, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
654 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Upper level low over the upper midwest will swing into the Great
Lakes area by this evening and into northern New England by Monday
morning. A surface cold front currently entering northwest GA will
shift across the area today and stall over portions of central and
south GA by this evening. With the upper level flow oriented from
southwest to northeast, which will allow the storms to train over
areas of central GA where we have issued a Flash Flood Watch. See
Hydrology section below. As the front shifts southward today,
drier air will filter into north GA, with some clearing in the
clouds noted through early afternoon along and northwest of I-85.
Clearing will continue into this evening into areas north of a
line from roughly Columbus to Macon to Warrenton, with storms
shifting to east central GA between 00-06Z this evening. The front
will shift to the north on Monday as a surface low rides along the
front which will bring low chances of showers back across portions
of central GA. Guidance temperatures are in agreement through the
period, but with clearing skies moving into the area, have gone
just above guidance across north Georgia for this afternoon ahead
of the cooler air filtering into the forecast area.

Atwell

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
The long term models are in good agreement, as the surface front
pushes away from the forecast area making way for surface high
pressure to build into the forecast area beginning on Tuesday.
This will bring dry, quiet weather to the area through the end of
the work week. Moisture will begin to increase across the area
Friday with POPs increasing Friday night and Saturday.
Temperatures will run cooler than normal through the long range
periods.

Atwell

HYDROLOGY...
Concern for next several hours through Monday is for far south and
southeast portions of forecast area, mainly south of a Americus to
Swainsboro line. MRMS 24hr rainfall estimates through 07Z show a
swath of 2 to 4.5 inches in this area. Hires model and WPC QPF
indicate an additional 1 to 3 inches additional rainfall is likely
through 12Z Monday with highest amounts over far southeast counties.
Soil conditions already saturated in these areas so expect future
FFG guidance to indicate very high runoff and considerably lower
amounts required to produce flash flooding. Minor flooding of larger
creeks and rivers likely.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
A slow improvement to CIGs will continue at the TAF sites. VFR
expected at ATL area sites and AHN between 17-18Z. CSG and MCN
will deteriorate to MVFR for a while as convection moves through
the area. winds will continue to shift more west with speeds of
5-10kts.  Brief gusts are possible throughout the period.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  48  65  39 /  50  10  10   5
Atlanta         74  49  63  38 /  40  10  10   5
Blairsville     66  42  58  32 /  40   5   5   5
Cartersville    74  45  60  36 /  30   5  10   5
Columbus        73  53  68  42 /  50  20  20   5
Gainesville     69  48  62  38 /  50   5  10   5
Macon           74  54  68  41 /  70  20  30   5
Rome            74  45  60  36 /  20   5   5   5
Peachtree City  71  48  64  37 /  50  10  20   5
Vidalia         77  59  69  46 /  80  50  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 11 AM EST this morning for the following
zones: Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Laurens...Montgomery...Pulaski...
Sumter...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Wheeler...Wilcox.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for the following
zones: Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Laurens...Montgomery...Pulaski...
Sumter...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Webster...Wheeler...
Wilcox.

&&

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....Atwell
AVIATION...Atwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
558 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
558 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...
Storms will continue to move across an area south of a line from
Columbus to Monticello to Lexington today. Some of the storms
could be strong to severe. Any severe storms that occur could
possibly produce damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
possible are expected to continue to move through the area Monday
particularly across east central Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>