Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2018

River Flood Warning 91, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

October 18, 2018Val Verde County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this river flood warning at Oct 18, 2018, 9:32 AM CDT for Val Verde County, Texas. It was in force for 52 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 18, 2018, 9:32 AM CDT (14:32 UTC)
Expired
Oct 20, 2018, 1:36 PM CDT
In force
52 hr
Issued by
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Major

County Val Verde County, TX

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Devils River at Bakers Crossing near Juno (BKCT2).

Action stage
4 ft
Minor stage
6 ft
Moderate stage
8 ft
Major stage
15 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

751 
WGUS44 KEWX 181432
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
932 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued 
 a flood warning for the... 

  Devils River 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 
 
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 
 
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 
 
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 
 
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-190831-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0091.181018T1432Z-181019T2131Z/
/BKCT2.3.ER.181018T1242Z.181018T1800Z.181019T0931Z.NO/
932 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock 
  until Friday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:15 AM Thursday the stage was 10.1 feet (3.1 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 16.2 feet 4.9 meters by this
  afternoon. The river & 
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...(5.2 meters), Major flooding can wash livestock, 
  autos, camp equipment and campers away well into the flood plain and 
  tributaries of the Devils River above Glasscock Ranch to Amistad Reservoir. 
  Roads and bridges are severely flooded and extremely dangerous. Many areas are
  cut off for hours.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Bakers Crossing     4    6   10.1   Thu 09 AM   5.3   3.2   3.0   2.8   2.6


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    3.1   Thu 09 AM   1.6   1.0   0.9   0.9   0.8


&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-190831-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0092.181019T0600Z-181019T1800Z/
/CMKT2.1.ER.181019T0600Z.181019T0600Z.181019T0600Z.NO/
932 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock 
  from late tonight to Friday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:15 AM Thursday the stage was 2.8 feet (0.9 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage after midnight 
  tomorrow.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...(1.5 meters), Minor lowland flooding one quarter mile 
  wide at Pafford Crossing covers most of the right bank. Turbulent flow above 
  Pafford Crossing to Amistad Reservoir can wash campers, automobiles, and 
  equipment downstream.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    2.8   Thu 09 AM   4.7   3.5   2.7   2.6   2.5


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    0.9   Thu 09 AM   1.4   1.1   0.8   0.8   0.8


&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
7 follow-up statements
047 
WGUS84 KEWX 182045
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
345 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-191444-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181020T0120Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181019T1320Z.UU/
345 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until Friday evening...The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until Friday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:00 PM Thursday the stage was 15.1 feet (4.6 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...(4.9 meters), Flow is well into the flood plain and 
  life threatening to campers near the river from the headwaters to Amistad 
  Reservoir. Low roads and crossings are extremely dangerous along the Devils 
  River and tributaries. Livestock should be removed from the flood plain.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8   15.1   Thu 03 PM   8.6   4.4   4.4   4.4   4.4


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    4.6   Thu 03 PM   2.6   1.3   1.3   1.3   1.3


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-191444-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181020T0022Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0000Z.181019T1222Z.NO/
345 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until Friday evening...The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until Friday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:15 PM Thursday the stage was 13.0 feet (4.0 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.6 feet (4.1 meters) by 
  Thursday evening. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...(3.7 meters), Campers, automobiles and equipment near 
  the river above Juno to Amistad Reservoir can be washed downstream. The river 
  is very turbulent at this level and dangerous for inexperienced swimmers, 
  canoeists and kayakers. Five feet of flow covers the Highway 163 bridge below 
  Juno.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Bakers Crossing     4    6   13.0   Thu 03 PM   6.1   3.0   2.9   2.8   2.7


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    4.0   Thu 03 PM   1.9   0.9   0.9   0.9   0.8


&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-191444-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0092.181019T1200Z-181020T0000Z/
/CMKT2.1.ER.181019T1200Z.181019T1200Z.181019T1200Z.NO/
345 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until Friday evening...The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* from Friday morning to Friday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:15 PM Thursday the stage was 2.8 feet (0.8 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Friday morning.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...(1.5 meters), Minor lowland flooding one quarter mile 
  wide at Pafford Crossing covers most of the right bank. Turbulent flow above 
  Pafford Crossing to Amistad Reservoir can wash campers, automobiles, and 
  equipment downstream.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    2.8   Thu 03 PM   5.0   2.8   2.7   2.8   2.8


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    0.8   Thu 03 PM   1.5   0.9   0.8   0.9   0.9


&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
615 
WGUS84 KEWX 190149
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
849 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-191949-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181020T2215Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181020T1015Z.UU/
849 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The flood warning continues
for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until Saturday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 14.0 feet (4.3 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Saturday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...(4.0 meters), Campers, autos and gear on the banks 
  wash downstream as this flood wave moves downstream.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8   14.0   Thu 08 PM  10.2   7.1   4.4   4.4   4.4


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    4.3   Thu 08 PM   3.1   2.2   1.3   1.3   1.3


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-191949-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181021T0637Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0045Z.181020T1837Z.NO/
849 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until late Saturday night...The flood warning 
continues for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Thursday the stage was 13.6 feet (4.2 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Saturday 
  early afternoon.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...(4.3 meters), Flooding can wash automobiles, 
  equipment, and campers downstream from above Juno to Amistad Reservoir. Roads 
  and bridges near the river are very dangerous. Six feet of flow covers the 
  Bakers Crossing bridge. Livestock should be moved from flood prone areas.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Bakers Crossing     4    6   13.6   Thu 08 PM  11.3   9.1   3.1   2.9   2.8


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    4.2   Thu 08 PM   3.4   2.8   0.9   0.9   0.9


&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-191949-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0092.181019T0149Z-181020T0705Z/
/CMKT2.1.ER.181018T2337Z.181019T0600Z.181019T1905Z.NO/
849 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until late Friday night...The flood warning continues 
for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* from this evening to late Friday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Thursday the stage was 5.3 feet (1.6 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 5.5 feet (1.7 meters) by 
  after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow early 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...(1.5 meters), Minor lowland flooding one quarter mile 
  wide at Pafford Crossing covers most of the right bank. Turbulent flow above 
  Pafford Crossing to Amistad Reservoir can wash campers, automobiles, and 
  equipment downstream.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    5.3   Thu 08 PM   4.1   2.9   2.8   2.8   2.8


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    1.6   Thu 08 PM   1.2   0.9   0.9   0.9   0.9


&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
128 
WGUS84 KEWX 191411
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
911 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-200811-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181021T1410Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181021T0210Z.UU/
911 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...Flood warning extended until Sunday morning...The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until Sunday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:00 AM Friday the stage was 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.4 feet (2.9 meters) by 
  early Saturday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage late 
  Saturaday evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...(3.0 meters), Numerous portions of Highway 163 along 
  the Devils River become flooded. Low water crossings and bridges along the 
  Devils River are impassable, and motorists may become stranded between low 
  spots for several hours.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8    8.5   Fri 08 AM   6.2   6.2   4.9   4.3   4.3


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    2.6   Fri 08 AM   1.9   1.9   1.5   1.3   1.3


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-200811-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181021T2100Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0045Z.181021T0900Z.NO/
911 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...Flood warning extended until Sunday afternoon...The flood warning continues 
for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 AM Friday the stage was 9.2 feet (2.8 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...(3.0 meters), Moderate lowland flooding is several 
  feet over the Bakers Crossing bridge at Highway 163. Flow is well into the 
  flood plain and very dangerous to campers and river recreationists above Juno 
  to Amistad Reservoir.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     4    6    9.2   Fri 08 AM   7.6   5.5   2.9   2.8   2.7


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    2.8   Fri 08 AM   2.3   1.7   0.9   0.9   0.8


&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-200811-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-181021T0336Z/
/CMKT2.2.ER.181018T2337Z.181019T0745Z.181020T1536Z.NO/
911 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...Flood warning extended until Saturday evening...The flood warning continues 
for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* until Saturday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 AM Friday the stage was 5.2 feet (1.6 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 5.9 feet (1.8 meters) by 
  midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage late Saturday
  morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...(1.8 meters), Moderate lowland flooding over 1/4 mile 
  wide covers the right bank to the canyon walls. The turbulent flow can wash 
  motorists, campers, and equipment downstream from Pafford Crossing to Amistad 
  Reservoir. Livestock are cut off and potentially drowned below Juno to Amistad
  Reservoir.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    5.2   Fri 08 AM   5.3   3.8   3.7   3.6   3.5


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    1.6   Fri 08 AM   1.6   1.2   1.1   1.1   1.1


&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
132 
WGUS84 KEWX 191913
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
213 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-201312-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181021T0936Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181020T2136Z.UU/
213 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 PM Friday the stage was 7.5 feet (2.3 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late Saturday morning and continue to 
  rise to near 8.3 feet 2.5 meters by early Saturday afternoon. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Saturday evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...(3.0 meters), Numerous portions of Highway 163 along 
  the Devils River become flooded. Low water crossings and bridges along the 
  Devils River are impassable, and motorists may become stranded between low 
  spots for several hours.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8    7.5   Fri 01 PM   7.7   6.6   5.3   4.4   4.4


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    2.3   Fri 01 PM   2.3   2.0   1.6   1.3   1.3


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-201312-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181022T0051Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0045Z.181021T1251Z.NO/
213 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...Flood warning extended until Sunday evening...The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until Sunday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:15 PM Friday the stage was 7.8 feet (2.4 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.5 feet (2.6 meters) by 
  early Saturday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...(3.0 meters), Moderate lowland flooding is several 
  feet over the Bakers Crossing bridge at Highway 163. Flow is well into the 
  flood plain and very dangerous to campers and river recreationists above Juno 
  to Amistad Reservoir.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     4    6    7.8   Fri 01 PM   7.6   6.1   3.2   2.8   2.8


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    2.4   Fri 01 PM   2.3   1.9   1.0   0.9   0.9


&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-201312-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-181020T2024Z/
/CMKT2.2.ER.181018T2337Z.181019T0745Z.181020T0824Z.NO/
213 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* until Saturday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:15 PM Friday the stage was 4.7 feet (1.4 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage Friday evening and continue to rise to near
  5.2 feet 1.6 meters after midnight Saturday morning. The river will fall below 
  flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...(1.8 meters), Moderate lowland flooding over 1/4 mile 
  wide covers the right bank to the canyon walls. The turbulent flow can wash 
  motorists, campers, and equipment downstream from Pafford Crossing to Amistad 
  Reservoir. Livestock are cut off and potentially drowned below Juno to Amistad
  Reservoir.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    4.7   Fri 01 PM   4.7   3.2   3.1   3.0   2.8


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    1.4   Fri 01 PM   1.4   1.0   0.9   0.9   0.9


&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
762 
WGUS84 KEWX 200110
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
810 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-201910-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181021T0936Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181020T2136Z.UU/
810 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 PM Friday the stage was 6.8 feet (2.1 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to 
  rise to near 8.3 feet 2.5 meters by tomorrow early afternoon. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...(2.4 meters), Several low crossings on Highway 163 on 
  the Devils River are flooded, and motorists may become stranded between 
  crossings for several hours.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8    6.8   Fri 07 PM   7.7   6.6   5.3   4.4   4.4

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    2.1   Fri 07 PM   2.3   2.0   1.6   1.3   1.3

&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-201910-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181022T0051Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0045Z.181021T1251Z.NO/
810 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until Sunday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 PM Friday the stage was 6.9 feet (2.1 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.5 feet (2.6 meters) by 
  tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...(2.4 meters), Moderate lowland flooding reaches the 
  Highway 163 bridge floor several miles below Juno. This level is turbulent and
  dangerous for inexperienced swimmers, canoeists and kayakers.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     4    6    6.9   Fri 07 PM   7.6   6.1   3.2   2.8   2.8

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    2.1   Fri 07 PM   2.3   1.9   1.0   0.9   0.9

&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-201910-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-181020T2024Z/
/CMKT2.2.ER.181018T2337Z.181019T0745Z.181020T0824Z.NO/
810 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* until Saturday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 PM Friday the stage was 3.8 feet (1.1 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and continue to 
  rise to near 5.2 feet 1.6 meters by after midnight tomorrow. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by early tomorrow.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...(1.5 meters), Minor lowland flooding one quarter mile 
  wide at Pafford Crossing covers most of the right bank. Turbulent flow above 
  Pafford Crossing to Amistad Reservoir can wash campers, automobiles, and 
  equipment downstream.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    3.8   Fri 07 PM   4.7   3.2   3.1   3.0   2.8

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    1.1   Fri 07 PM   1.4   1.0   0.9   0.9   0.9

&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
664 
WGUS84 KEWX 200124
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
824 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...
  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-200154-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181021T0936Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181019T1505Z.UU/
824 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* At  8:00 PM Friday the stage was 6.7 feet (2.0 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Fell below flood stage at 10:05 AM Friday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 5.0 feet  meters by Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...(2.4 meters), Several low crossings on Highway 163 on 
  the Devils River are flooded, and motorists may become stranded between 
  crossings for several hours.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8    6.7   Fri 08 PM   5.9   5.0   4.5   4.3   4.3

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    2.0   Fri 08 PM   1.8   1.5   1.4   1.3   1.3

&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-201923-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181021T0300Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0045Z.181020T1500Z.NO/
824 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until Saturday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 PM Friday the stage was 6.9 feet (2.1 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow 
  late morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...(2.4 meters), Moderate lowland flooding reaches the 
  Highway 163 bridge floor several miles below Juno. This level is turbulent and
  dangerous for inexperienced swimmers, canoeists and kayakers.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     4    6    6.9   Fri 07 PM   6.2   4.6   3.5   3.0   2.8

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    2.1   Fri 07 PM   1.9   1.4   1.1   0.9   0.9

&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-200154-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-181020T2024Z/
/CMKT2.2.ER.181018T2337Z.181019T0745Z.181019T1705Z.NO/
824 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* At  7:15 PM Friday the stage was 3.8 feet (1.1 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Fell below flood stage at 12:05 PM Friday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 3.1 feet  meters by Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...(1.5 meters), Minor lowland flooding one quarter mile 
  wide at Pafford Crossing covers most of the right bank. Turbulent flow above 
  Pafford Crossing to Amistad Reservoir can wash campers, automobiles, and 
  equipment downstream.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    3.8   Fri 07 PM   3.6   3.1   2.9   2.8   2.6

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    1.1   Fri 07 PM   1.1   0.9   0.9   0.9   0.8

&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
723 
WGUS84 KEWX 201836
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
136 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-201906-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181021T0300Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0045Z.181020T1252Z.NO/
136 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* At  1:15 PM Saturday the stage was 5.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 4.7 feet by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...(1.8 meters), Minor lowland flooding extends into low 
  areas of the flood plain with no significant impact.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Bakers Crossing     4    6    5.7   Sat 01 PM   4.7   3.5   3.1   2.8   2.5


&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 18, 9:06 AM CDT, 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 18, 9:06 AM CDT, 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
906 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Area radars are currently showing light showers mainly across the
southern counties of south central Texas. However, a line of light
to isolated moderate showers just entered the southern parts of
Karnes and Dewitt counties while moving to the northwest. So far, the
rain rates are less than a one tenth of an inch.

Based on current radar and satellite data, the moderate to localized
heavy rainfall expected for this morning is been delayed for this
afternoon and evening per latest HiRes models and guidance. Still
expecting 1 to 2 inches with isolated 4 inches for the next 18 to 24
hours.

Will keep you updated as new information comes in and the shower
activity begins to impact the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGs and intermittent SHRA with restrictions to VSBY can be
expected at all TAF sites today through Friday morning. There is a
potential for LIFR VSBYs in the heavier SHRA, however, due to
uncertainty on timing will leave out for now and update based on
radar trends. Northerly winds 6 to 14 KTs prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
For today and into Friday a disturbance will rotate around the
western side of the upper level high situated across the Gulf Coast
interacting with very moist air to create more scattered light to
moderate showers across the area. The best chance of any of these
heavier showers will be later today, through the overnight hours into
Friday morning. With additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible,
with isolated totals up to 4 inches we have extended the Flash Flood
Watch through Friday morning. Beyond Friday morning the watch may
need to be reconfigured as the threat for heavier rain will shift
from across the Rio Grande Plains to focus on the Texas Hill Country.
This disturbance will drag in rich Gulf moisture and increase
precipitable water values to 1.9-2.1 inches for late today through
Friday (check out the Wednesday evening update AFD for a more in-
depth explanation on PW). These values are well into the 90th
percentile for this time of year and could translate into pockets of
heavier rainfall. Soils, especially across the Edwards Plateau (from
Real to Kerr counties) and Hill Country (from Gillespie to Llano to
Burnet counties), are so saturated that even 1 to 2 inches of rain
will cause increased runoff and could lead to additional river rises
or flooded road ways. Over the last 3 days anywhere between 4 and 12
inches of rainfall have fallen on the Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country so these areas remain the focus for the flash flood threat,
but moderate to heavy rainfall could work into the I-35 corridor
today and tonight as well leading to their inclusion in the watch.
Afternoon highs will continue to run about 10 degrees below seasonal
normals, with lows right around where they should be for mid October.

With the saturated soils across parts of South Central Texas and the
continued wet forecast this remains a dangerous situation as rainfall
from the last few days continues to work its way through area rivers.
The Lower Colorado River Authority announced that by mid-day Thursday
up to 8 flood gates at Mansfield Dam could be opened (4 are currently
releasing about 25,000 cfs down the Colorado) to move some of the
water from Lake Travis down the Colorado. Lake Travis, as of 3am is
at just over 700 feet msl, the 6th highest the lake has ever been
(Visit the NWS AHPS page and search for MSDT2 to view the other past
crests). The Devils River in Val Verde County, the Nueces River in
Dimmit County, and the Frio River in Frio County all continue to be
in flood this morning as well.

We urge residents and visitors to South Central Texas to monitor
closely the weather conditions for the next several days as any
rainfall amounts could lead to additional flash flooding or river
flooding. Also, those along the Colorado River should monitor
information coming from the Lower Colorado River Authority concerning
releases from area lakes and take needed actions to protect lives and
property along the Colorado.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The longterm forecast is a mixed bag of good news and bad news. The
good news is that on Saturday a large trough will dig out of Canada
across the eastern half of the U.S. and drag a cold front through
Texas. While this will act as a focus for more rain during the day on
Saturday the front should clear out precipitation for Saturday night
through Sunday night, other than some isolated showers across the Rio
Grande Plains. This should give a good 24 hours for water to work
through area rivers, with no additional rainfall. The front will also
help to knock down temperatures that will have rebounded to afternoon
highs near 70 by Saturday (still below normal), back down into the
lower 60s. A lucky few may see some peaks of sun on Sunday though
mostly cloudy skies should prevail.

Now the bad news...there is more rain in the forecast for the first
half of next week. Both the ECMWF and GFS show the persistent upper
level low pressure system that has been sitting across the Southwest
U.S. finally ejected eastward across the Southern Plains. This in
itself will provide a catalyst for another round of potentially heavy
rainfall beginning on Monday and lasting through Wednesday night.
What bares watching is the possibility than a Pacific tropical system
gets pulled into the through as it traverses across Texas. This
system has yet to form, but is shown in both the ECMWF and GFS and
NHC currently has a 90% chance of formation along the southern
Mexican coast. The GFS has the trough picking up the tropical system
Wednesday into Thursday producing widespread heavy rainfall across
much of Texas. The ECMWF is faster with the main trough pulling it
through Texas as tropical system makes landfall. The difference here
will be the amount of moisture the trough has to work with. With all
of the Pacific moisture the GFS dumps 5-10 inches from San Angelo to
Abilene, while the ECMWF with the miss-match of trough first, then
tropical system shows only 2-4 inches. There are a lot of factors
that will come into play next week from the timing of the trough
moving eastward, to the location, strength, and timing of the yet-to-
form Pacific Tropical System, and how much the area gets to dry out
this weekend. How these come together will determine how much and
where the rain falls during the first half of next week and what
additional impacts will be felt across South Central Texas.

Probably the *best* news is that both long-term global models show
ridging trying to work into Texas behind the trough and a drier
forecast beginning Thursday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              58  57  65  58  67 /  70  60  70  60  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  59  57  65  58  67 /  70  60  60  60  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     59  58  67  60  68 /  70  60  60  50  50
Burnet Muni Airport            56  54  62  56  65 /  80  80  70  70  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           58  57  69  61  68 /  70  70  40  50  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  55  63  56  66 /  70  70  70  70  50
Hondo Muni Airport             59  58  70  61  69 /  80  80  60  60  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        59  57  66  59  67 /  70  60  60  60  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  60  70  60  68 /  60  50  60  50  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       59  59  68  61  68 /  80  70  60  50  50
Stinson Muni Airport           60  60  69  62  69 /  80  70  60  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-
Burnet-Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-
Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Zavala.

&&

Aviation...Platt
Short-Term/Long-Term...17
Public Service/Data Collection...YB
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 18, 4:26 AM CDT, 5 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
426 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-191000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
426 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

An upper level disturbance will bring another surge of moisture
across our area today. This will result in periods of showers
through Friday morning. Moderate to heavy rainfall is possible
across most areas. This could lead to renewed flash flooding and
river flooding, especially for areas across the Edwards Plateau
and Hill Country to along the I-35 corridor where soils remain
saturated from recent heavy rains. A Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect through Friday morning for this area. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated pockets of up to 4 inches,
are possible.

Rivers and lakes will remain elevated for the next several days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to numerous showers continue for most areas Friday.
Moderate to heavy rains are possible Friday morning, especially
across the Hill Country.

A cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers across most
areas on Saturday, then showers become more isolated and focus
toward the Rio Grande Plains on Sunday.

An upper level disturbance and the remnants of a possible eastern
Pacific tropical system result in increasing showers Monday
through Wednesday. Additional rounds of heavy rains are possible.

Rivers and lakes will remain elevated for the next several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters are encouraged
to relay any reports of heavy rain or flooding.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 18, 12:45 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXVal Verde44 hr
Oct 18, 9:32 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXVal Verde35 hr
Oct 18, 5:41 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXBandera, Medina3 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.