Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2018

River Flood Warning 90, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

October 18, 2018Val Verde County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this river flood warning at Oct 18, 2018, 12:45 AM CDT for Val Verde County, Texas. It was in force for 44 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 18, 2018, 12:45 AM CDT (05:45 UTC)
Expired
Oct 19, 2018, 8:24 PM CDT
In force
44 hr
Issued by
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Val Verde County, TX

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Devils River at Cauthorn Ranch near Juno (JNXT2).

Action stage
7 ft
Minor stage
8 ft
Moderate stage
10 ft
Major stage
18 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

787 
WGUS44 KEWX 180545
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1245 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued 
 a flood warning for the... 

  Devils River 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 
 
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 
 
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 
 
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 
 
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-181816-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0090.181018T0545Z-181018T1816Z/
/JNXT2.1.ER.181018T0545Z.181018T0600Z.181018T0616Z.UU/
1245 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

 The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until this afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:00 AM Thursday the stage was 7.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage after midnight and continue to rise to
  near 8.1 feet early this morning. The river will fall below flood stage
  by mid morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...(2.4 meters), Several low crossings on Highway 163 on 
  the Devils River are flooded, and motorists may become stranded between 
  crossings for several hours.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
  Cauthorn Ranch     7    8    7.7   Thu 12 AM   5.9   4.4   4.4   4.4   4.4


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$
8 follow-up statements
792 
WGUS44 KEWX 180828
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
328 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued 
 a flood warning for the... 

  Devils River 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 
 
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 
 
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 
 
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 
 
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-190228-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181019T0458Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T1200Z.181018T1658Z.UU/
328 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Observed flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity... 
...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity... 
The flood warning continues for 
  THE Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until this evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:00 AM Thursday the stage was 10.5 feet (3.2 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 12.4 feet (3.8 meters)
  this morning. The river will then fall to below flood stage this afternoon
  and below bankfull stage this evening. 
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...(3.0 meters), Numerous portions of Highway 163 along 
  the Devils River become flooded. Low water crossings and bridges along the 
  Devils River are impassable, and motorists may become stranded between low 
  spots for several hours.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8   10.5   Thu 03 AM   4.3   4.3   4.3   4.3   4.3


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    3.2   Thu 03 AM   1.3   1.3   1.3   1.3   1.3


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$
001 
WGUS84 KEWX 181435
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
935 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-190834-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181019T1818Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T1800Z.181019T0618Z.UU/
935 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until Friday afternoon...The flood warning continues 
for the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno until Friday afternoon...or 
until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:00 AM Thursday the stage was 14.2 feet (4.3 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.4 feet (4.4 meters) by 
  this afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage after midnight tomorrow.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...(4.0 meters), Campers, autos and gear on the banks 
  wash downstream as this flood wave moves downstream.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8   14.2   Thu 09 AM   6.2   4.6   4.5   4.3   4.2


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    4.3   Thu 09 AM   1.9   1.4   1.4   1.3   1.3


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$
047 
WGUS84 KEWX 182045
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
345 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-191444-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181020T0120Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181019T1320Z.UU/
345 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until Friday evening...The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until Friday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:00 PM Thursday the stage was 15.1 feet (4.6 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...(4.9 meters), Flow is well into the flood plain and 
  life threatening to campers near the river from the headwaters to Amistad 
  Reservoir. Low roads and crossings are extremely dangerous along the Devils 
  River and tributaries. Livestock should be removed from the flood plain.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8   15.1   Thu 03 PM   8.6   4.4   4.4   4.4   4.4


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    4.6   Thu 03 PM   2.6   1.3   1.3   1.3   1.3


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-191444-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181020T0022Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0000Z.181019T1222Z.NO/
345 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until Friday evening...The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until Friday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:15 PM Thursday the stage was 13.0 feet (4.0 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.6 feet (4.1 meters) by 
  Thursday evening. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...(3.7 meters), Campers, automobiles and equipment near 
  the river above Juno to Amistad Reservoir can be washed downstream. The river 
  is very turbulent at this level and dangerous for inexperienced swimmers, 
  canoeists and kayakers. Five feet of flow covers the Highway 163 bridge below 
  Juno.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Bakers Crossing     4    6   13.0   Thu 03 PM   6.1   3.0   2.9   2.8   2.7


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    4.0   Thu 03 PM   1.9   0.9   0.9   0.9   0.8


&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-191444-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0092.181019T1200Z-181020T0000Z/
/CMKT2.1.ER.181019T1200Z.181019T1200Z.181019T1200Z.NO/
345 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until Friday evening...The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* from Friday morning to Friday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:15 PM Thursday the stage was 2.8 feet (0.8 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Friday morning.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...(1.5 meters), Minor lowland flooding one quarter mile 
  wide at Pafford Crossing covers most of the right bank. Turbulent flow above 
  Pafford Crossing to Amistad Reservoir can wash campers, automobiles, and 
  equipment downstream.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    2.8   Thu 03 PM   5.0   2.8   2.7   2.8   2.8


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    0.8   Thu 03 PM   1.5   0.9   0.8   0.9   0.9


&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
615 
WGUS84 KEWX 190149
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
849 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-191949-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181020T2215Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181020T1015Z.UU/
849 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The flood warning continues
for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until Saturday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 14.0 feet (4.3 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Saturday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...(4.0 meters), Campers, autos and gear on the banks 
  wash downstream as this flood wave moves downstream.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8   14.0   Thu 08 PM  10.2   7.1   4.4   4.4   4.4


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    4.3   Thu 08 PM   3.1   2.2   1.3   1.3   1.3


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-191949-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181021T0637Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0045Z.181020T1837Z.NO/
849 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until late Saturday night...The flood warning 
continues for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Thursday the stage was 13.6 feet (4.2 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Saturday 
  early afternoon.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...(4.3 meters), Flooding can wash automobiles, 
  equipment, and campers downstream from above Juno to Amistad Reservoir. Roads 
  and bridges near the river are very dangerous. Six feet of flow covers the 
  Bakers Crossing bridge. Livestock should be moved from flood prone areas.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Bakers Crossing     4    6   13.6   Thu 08 PM  11.3   9.1   3.1   2.9   2.8


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    4.2   Thu 08 PM   3.4   2.8   0.9   0.9   0.9


&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-191949-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0092.181019T0149Z-181020T0705Z/
/CMKT2.1.ER.181018T2337Z.181019T0600Z.181019T1905Z.NO/
849 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...Flood warning extended until late Friday night...The flood warning continues 
for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* from this evening to late Friday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Thursday the stage was 5.3 feet (1.6 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 5.5 feet (1.7 meters) by 
  after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow early 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...(1.5 meters), Minor lowland flooding one quarter mile 
  wide at Pafford Crossing covers most of the right bank. Turbulent flow above 
  Pafford Crossing to Amistad Reservoir can wash campers, automobiles, and 
  equipment downstream.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    5.3   Thu 08 PM   4.1   2.9   2.8   2.8   2.8


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    1.6   Thu 08 PM   1.2   0.9   0.9   0.9   0.9


&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
128 
WGUS84 KEWX 191411
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
911 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-200811-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181021T1410Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181021T0210Z.UU/
911 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...Flood warning extended until Sunday morning...The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until Sunday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:00 AM Friday the stage was 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.4 feet (2.9 meters) by 
  early Saturday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage late 
  Saturaday evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...(3.0 meters), Numerous portions of Highway 163 along 
  the Devils River become flooded. Low water crossings and bridges along the 
  Devils River are impassable, and motorists may become stranded between low 
  spots for several hours.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8    8.5   Fri 08 AM   6.2   6.2   4.9   4.3   4.3


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    2.6   Fri 08 AM   1.9   1.9   1.5   1.3   1.3


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-200811-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181021T2100Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0045Z.181021T0900Z.NO/
911 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...Flood warning extended until Sunday afternoon...The flood warning continues 
for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 AM Friday the stage was 9.2 feet (2.8 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...(3.0 meters), Moderate lowland flooding is several 
  feet over the Bakers Crossing bridge at Highway 163. Flow is well into the 
  flood plain and very dangerous to campers and river recreationists above Juno 
  to Amistad Reservoir.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     4    6    9.2   Fri 08 AM   7.6   5.5   2.9   2.8   2.7


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    2.8   Fri 08 AM   2.3   1.7   0.9   0.9   0.8


&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-200811-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-181021T0336Z/
/CMKT2.2.ER.181018T2337Z.181019T0745Z.181020T1536Z.NO/
911 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...Flood warning extended until Saturday evening...The flood warning continues 
for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* until Saturday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 AM Friday the stage was 5.2 feet (1.6 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 5.9 feet (1.8 meters) by 
  midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage late Saturday
  morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...(1.8 meters), Moderate lowland flooding over 1/4 mile 
  wide covers the right bank to the canyon walls. The turbulent flow can wash 
  motorists, campers, and equipment downstream from Pafford Crossing to Amistad 
  Reservoir. Livestock are cut off and potentially drowned below Juno to Amistad
  Reservoir.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    5.2   Fri 08 AM   5.3   3.8   3.7   3.6   3.5


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    1.6   Fri 08 AM   1.6   1.2   1.1   1.1   1.1


&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
132 
WGUS84 KEWX 191913
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
213 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-201312-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181021T0936Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181020T2136Z.UU/
213 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 PM Friday the stage was 7.5 feet (2.3 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late Saturday morning and continue to 
  rise to near 8.3 feet 2.5 meters by early Saturday afternoon. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Saturday evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...(3.0 meters), Numerous portions of Highway 163 along 
  the Devils River become flooded. Low water crossings and bridges along the 
  Devils River are impassable, and motorists may become stranded between low 
  spots for several hours.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8    7.5   Fri 01 PM   7.7   6.6   5.3   4.4   4.4


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    2.3   Fri 01 PM   2.3   2.0   1.6   1.3   1.3


&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-201312-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181022T0051Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0045Z.181021T1251Z.NO/
213 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...Flood warning extended until Sunday evening...The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until Sunday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:15 PM Friday the stage was 7.8 feet (2.4 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.5 feet (2.6 meters) by 
  early Saturday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...(3.0 meters), Moderate lowland flooding is several 
  feet over the Bakers Crossing bridge at Highway 163. Flow is well into the 
  flood plain and very dangerous to campers and river recreationists above Juno 
  to Amistad Reservoir.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     4    6    7.8   Fri 01 PM   7.6   6.1   3.2   2.8   2.8


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    2.4   Fri 01 PM   2.3   1.9   1.0   0.9   0.9


&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-201312-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-181020T2024Z/
/CMKT2.2.ER.181018T2337Z.181019T0745Z.181020T0824Z.NO/
213 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* until Saturday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:15 PM Friday the stage was 4.7 feet (1.4 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage Friday evening and continue to rise to near
  5.2 feet 1.6 meters after midnight Saturday morning. The river will fall below 
  flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...(1.8 meters), Moderate lowland flooding over 1/4 mile 
  wide covers the right bank to the canyon walls. The turbulent flow can wash 
  motorists, campers, and equipment downstream from Pafford Crossing to Amistad 
  Reservoir. Livestock are cut off and potentially drowned below Juno to Amistad
  Reservoir.

&& 



Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    4.7   Fri 01 PM   4.7   3.2   3.1   3.0   2.8


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    1.4   Fri 01 PM   1.4   1.0   0.9   0.9   0.9


&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
762 
WGUS84 KEWX 200110
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
810 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-201910-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181021T0936Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181020T2136Z.UU/
810 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 PM Friday the stage was 6.8 feet (2.1 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to 
  rise to near 8.3 feet 2.5 meters by tomorrow early afternoon. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...(2.4 meters), Several low crossings on Highway 163 on 
  the Devils River are flooded, and motorists may become stranded between 
  crossings for several hours.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8    6.8   Fri 07 PM   7.7   6.6   5.3   4.4   4.4

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    2.1   Fri 07 PM   2.3   2.0   1.6   1.3   1.3

&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-201910-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181022T0051Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0045Z.181021T1251Z.NO/
810 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until Sunday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 PM Friday the stage was 6.9 feet (2.1 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.5 feet (2.6 meters) by 
  tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...(2.4 meters), Moderate lowland flooding reaches the 
  Highway 163 bridge floor several miles below Juno. This level is turbulent and
  dangerous for inexperienced swimmers, canoeists and kayakers.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     4    6    6.9   Fri 07 PM   7.6   6.1   3.2   2.8   2.8

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    2.1   Fri 07 PM   2.3   1.9   1.0   0.9   0.9

&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-201910-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-181020T2024Z/
/CMKT2.2.ER.181018T2337Z.181019T0745Z.181020T0824Z.NO/
810 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* until Saturday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 PM Friday the stage was 3.8 feet (1.1 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and continue to 
  rise to near 5.2 feet 1.6 meters by after midnight tomorrow. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by early tomorrow.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...(1.5 meters), Minor lowland flooding one quarter mile 
  wide at Pafford Crossing covers most of the right bank. Turbulent flow above 
  Pafford Crossing to Amistad Reservoir can wash campers, automobiles, and 
  equipment downstream.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    3.8   Fri 07 PM   4.7   3.2   3.1   3.0   2.8

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    1.1   Fri 07 PM   1.4   1.0   0.9   0.9   0.9

&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$
664 
WGUS84 KEWX 200124
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
824 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...
  Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno Affecting Val Verde County
  Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
  Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock Affecting Val Verde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC465-200154-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-181021T0936Z/
/JNXT2.2.ER.181018T0646Z.181018T2000Z.181019T1505Z.UU/
824 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno.
* At  8:00 PM Friday the stage was 6.7 feet (2.0 meters).
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet (2.4 meters).
* Fell below flood stage at 10:05 AM Friday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 5.0 feet  meters by Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...(2.4 meters), Several low crossings on Highway 163 on 
  the Devils River are flooded, and motorists may become stranded between 
  crossings for several hours.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    7    8    6.7   Fri 08 PM   5.9   5.0   4.5   4.3   4.3

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Cauthorn Ranch N    2    2    2.0   Fri 08 PM   1.8   1.5   1.4   1.3   1.3

&&

LAT...LON 3010 10115 3010 10107 3003 10114 2996 10110
      2996 10118 3003 10122       

$$

TXC465-201923-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-181021T0300Z/
/BKCT2.2.ER.181018T1242Z.181019T0045Z.181020T1500Z.NO/
824 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19N Of Comstock.
* until Saturday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 PM Friday the stage was 6.9 feet (2.1 meters).
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet (1.8 meters).
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow 
  late morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...(2.4 meters), Moderate lowland flooding reaches the 
  Highway 163 bridge floor several miles below Juno. This level is turbulent and
  dangerous for inexperienced swimmers, canoeists and kayakers.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     4    6    6.9   Fri 07 PM   6.2   4.6   3.5   3.0   2.8

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Bakers Crossing     1    2    2.1   Fri 07 PM   1.9   1.4   1.1   0.9   0.9

&&

LAT...LON 2996 10118 2996 10110 2989 10097 2971 10095
      2968 10103 2986 10105       

$$

TXC465-200154-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-181020T2024Z/
/CMKT2.2.ER.181018T2337Z.181019T0745Z.181019T1705Z.NO/
824 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Devils River At Pafford Crossing nr Comstock.
* At  7:15 PM Friday the stage was 3.8 feet (1.1 meters).
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet (1.5 meters).
* Fell below flood stage at 12:05 PM Friday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 3.1 feet  meters by Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...(1.5 meters), Minor lowland flooding one quarter mile 
  wide at Pafford Crossing covers most of the right bank. Turbulent flow above 
  Pafford Crossing to Amistad Reservoir can wash campers, automobiles, and 
  equipment downstream.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (FT)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    4    5    3.8   Fri 07 PM   3.6   3.1   2.9   2.8   2.6

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):
                    BF  FLD  Observed           Forecast 7AM (M)
Location           STG  STG    STG   Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Pafford Crossing    1    2    1.1   Fri 07 PM   1.1   0.9   0.9   0.9   0.8

&&

LAT...LON 2968 10103 2971 10095 2966 10089 2956 10092
      2953 10100 2963 10097       

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 18, 12:34 AM CDT, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 18, 12:34 AM CDT, 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGs and intermittent SHRA with restrictions to VSBY can be
expected at all TAF sites overnight through Thursday night. There is
a potential for LIFR VSBYs in the heavier SHRA, however, due to
uncertainty on timing will leave out for now and update based on
radar trends. Nly winds 7 to 14 KTs prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/

UPDATE...
Current forecast is in good shape with PoPs represented well the
trends expected for tonight. Rain chances will increase after
midnight from the south then move north around daybreak. A weak
disturbance will continue to lift north bringing with it very moist
air back into the region. This is in combination with southwest flow
aloft continuing over Texas with a deep upper low over Utah. PW
values on the 00z CRP sounding was 1.89" which is about the 90th
percentile for the calendar day. This will allow for pockets of heavy
rainfall within large scale lift on top of the frontal layer still
in place across South Central Texas. Rainfall should continue off and
on during the day tomorrow. Saturated soils and ongoing river
flooding will continue to allow for very efficient runoff of any
heavy rainfall that falls. No major updates were needed to the
forecast.

One might ask how are we seeing these precipitable water values in
the 90th percentile while surface temperatures are in the 40s and
50s. Precipitable water is technically the mass of water vapor over
an area of the surface. In the winter, precipitable water values go
down. For example, the 90th percentile value at the CRP RAOB for
January 1st is around 1.3". This is because precipitable water is a
measure of the weight of moisture and therefore PW uses specific
humidity in its calculation which measures the ratio of the weight of
water vapor versus the total weight of the area. The warmer the
temperature, then the higher amount of moisture the atmosphere can
hold. Thus when the entire column cools during the winter PWs go
down. Currently, even though we have temperatures at the surface in
the 40s/50s, 850 temperatures are warmer and about the same as a
normal temperature at that level in late September. Slightly warmer
than normal temperatures on top of the well below normal surface
layer is allowing precipitable water values to remain in that late
summer to early fall range and not typical of what you would normally
see when temperatures are normally this cold at the surface in
winter.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/

AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
Look for continued intermittent showers with a steady NNE wind to
maintain borderline ifr/mvfr cigs for much of the TAF periods. Light
sprinkles should not impact vsbys in the short-term but cumulatively
could lower them into mvfr levels later tonight. Later periods will
show a higher presence of rain and reduced vsbys as additional
instability moves into Texas from the Pacific.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/

Flash Flood Threat Continues...

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Light to moderate rain continues to affect parts of the Rio Grande
Plains and Edwards Plateau with light echoes showing up on radar for
the southeast counties and Coastal Plains. This trend is anticipated
to continue this evening through the overnight hours. However, a
surge of rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to enter
and push across our area overnight into Thursday. The combination of
abundant moisture and passing upper level disturbances over the
Southern Plains translates into moderate to localized heavy showers
across most areas of south central Texas on Thursday. As you all
know, recent rainfall amounts which range from 4 to 12 inches in 72
hours are still causing major problems across the area. With the
expected rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized 4 inches
and saturated soils in place, the threat for flash flooding is high,
especially across the northern Hill Country and southern Edwards
Plateau. Another area of concern is the I-35 corridor if the
forecasted rainfall amounts materialized.

This is a dangerous situation due to saturated soils and the wet
weather pattern that we are in for the next few days.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday evening and now
includes the I-35 corridor counties such as Travis and Bexar.

We urge residents and visitors of south central Texas to monitor
closely the weather conditions for the next several days as any
rainfall amounts could have an impact to the area and especially
those along rivers and lakes.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Rain chances continue mainly for the northern part of south central
Texas Friday into Saturday. The shower activity shifts to the Rio
Grande Plains on Sunday with low PoPs for areas along and east of the
I-35 corridor.

An upper level disturbance over the four corners region will shift
to the northeast into the Southern Plains on Tuesday and this bring a
second round of moderate to localized heavy showers to the area. The
weather pattern finally changes with a dry airmass expected to
spread across the area by late mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              56  63  57  68  55 /  50  60  40  40  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  56  63  58  68  57 /  50  60  40  40  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     57  65  59  69  57 /  50  60  40  40  20
Burnet Muni Airport            53  60  56  66  52 /  60  70  50  50  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           56  67  60  69  57 /  50  50  40  60  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        55  61  56  67  53 /  40  60  40  40  10
Hondo Muni Airport             57  68  61  70  58 /  70  50  40  60  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        57  64  58  68  56 /  50  60  40  40  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   59  69  59  70  57 /  40  50  40  40  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       57  66  60  70  58 /  60  50  40  40  30
Stinson Muni Airport           58  67  61  70  59 /  60  50  40  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-
Burnet-Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-
Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Zavala.

&&

Aviation...04
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 17, 3:32 PM CDT, 9 hours 13 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
332 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-182045-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
332 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

The most persistent rainfall through this evening is expected to
remain across Val Verde and Edwards county. For the overnight
hours, rainfall chances will be on the increase across all of
south central Texas. Locally heavy rainfall is possible and a
Flash Flood Watch is in effect for areas along and west of the
Interstate 35 corridor.

Rivers and lakes will remain elevated through late this week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another surge of deeper moisture moves into our area on Thursday.
This will result in periods of showers along with a few
thunderstorms. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible across
most areas. This could lead to renewed flash flooding, especially
for areas along and west of the I-35 corridor where the heaviest
rains have fallen recently. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
through Thursday evening for this area. An additional 1 to 2
inches of rain, with isolated amounts near 4 inches, will be
possible through Thursday evening.

Rivers and lakes will remain elevated through late this week.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue for most areas Friday
and Saturday, then shift west to the Rio Grande Plains by Sunday.

Chances of showers slowly increase on Monday through Wednesday.
There is another potential for heavier rains by the middle of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters are encouraged
to relay any reports of heavy rain or flooding.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 18, 9:32 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXVal Verde52 hr
Oct 18, 9:32 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXVal Verde35 hr
Oct 18, 5:41 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXBandera, Medina3 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.