Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

747 
WGUS74 KEWX 160330
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1030 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

TXC137-265-385-160730-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0058.000000T0000Z-181016T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kerr TX-Edwards TX-Real TX-
1030 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT FOR
KERR...EDWARDS AND CENTRAL REAL COUNTIES...

At 1028 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported flash flooding on 
Highway 55 south of Campwood. Additional flooding was reported along 
Highway 337 and Highway 41 across portions of Edwards and Real 
Counties. Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Kerrville, Rocksprings, Ingram, Hunt, Camp Wood, Barksdale, Vance,
Waltonia, Kerr Wildlife Management Area, Mountain Home, I-
10 Near The Kimble-Kerr County Line, Us-377 Near The Kimble-
Edwards County Line, Us-83 Near The Kerr-
Kimble County Line, The Intersection Of I-
10 And Us 290, Prade Ranch, Devil's Sinkhole State Natural Area and
Kickapoo Cavern State Park.

Additional rainfall amounts of up to one inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 9931 3013 9931 3014 9898 2990 9929
      2991 9973 2962 9996 2963 10070 2977 10070
      3029 10017

$$

HUFFMAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
714 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.AVIATION...
Periods of SHRA are expected at the terminals through at least 14-18Z
Tuesday as an upper level speed maxima overrides a frontal boundary
located around 850 MB draped north of the terminals. This will result
in visibilities dropping as low as LIFR in heavier SHRA, with
IFR/MVFR conditions prevailing as ceilings remain trapped beneath a
low level frontal inversion. With the surface pressure gradient
relaxing, expect northerly winds to begin decreasing but remain
generally elevated in the 10-15 knot range. Amendments are expected
to handle more intense SHRA that approach the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Much cooler temperatures along with widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms can be found across south central Texas this afternoon.
Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the
region, compared to 24 hours ago when temperatures were mainly in the
80s to lower 90s.

Widespread rain along with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected
to continue through tonight as southerly warm air advection above
the cold low-level northerly flow continues. For the early part of
this evening, the main concern is expected to remain out west along
the Rio Grande, where the HRRR suggests some stronger convection from
Mexico will move northward into the Rio Grande plains. For the
overnight hours, the models suggest additional showers and embedded
thunderstorms will continue, with the heavier totals expected to
remain across the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country. Locally heavy rainfall may also spill over into Tuesday
and with this in mind, we have opted to extend the Flash Flood Watch
into early Tuesday evening. Storm total amounts through Tuesday of 1
to 3 inches with a few totals of 4 to 6 inches are expected.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
We could see a brief break in the rainfall on Wednesday for areas
along and east of I-35. However, west of I-35, rain chances continue
to remain high as additional shortwave energy moves out of Mexico
into the Rio Grande plains. Rain chances look to increase again on
Thursday as the medium range models show a series of disturbances
moving up from deep south Texas into the region. The forecast for the
upcoming weekend into early next week remains uncertain as the
operational GFS and ECMWF diverge on the mid-level flow pattern. The
GFS suggests a drier forecast with a surge of cool and dry air on
Saturday. The ECMWF also shows this surge of cooler air, but
maintains a warm air advection pattern and keeps much higher rain
chances intact. For now, we will keep rain chances in the forecast,
but have gone a little lower than the ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              44  47  45  54  49 /  90  80  50  40  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  46  47  43  55  49 /  90  80  50  40  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     45  49  45  56  51 /  90  70  40  30  40
Burnet Muni Airport            41  44  43  53  48 / 100  80  60  50  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           43  48  46  54  50 /  90  70  70  70  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        43  46  45  53  49 /  90  80  50  40  30
Hondo Muni Airport             46  50  48  57  49 / 100  70  50  40  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        45  48  46  55  52 /  90  70  40  30  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   47  50  49  58  53 /  80  60  30  30  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       45  49  46  57  51 /  90  70  40  40  50
Stinson Muni Airport           47  52  48  58  51 /  90  70  40  30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Bandera-Blanco-Burnet-
Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Maverick-Medina-Real-
Uvalde-Val Verde-Zavala.

&&

Aviation...Huffman
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
352 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-162100-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
352 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible today into tonight. A Flash
Flood Watch is in effect through 7 pm Tuesday evening for areas
along and west of Interstate 35. 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible
with isolated areas receiving up to 4 to 6 inches across the
Flash Flood Watch area.

The strong cold front will bring a drastic change in
temperatures today. Widespread wind chill indices in the 40s are
expected with indices dropping as low as the low 30s in the Hill
Country.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The Flash Flood Watch will continue through the day on Tuesday as
locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the Watch area.

Cooler temperatures and wind chill values will continue for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

High confidence for rainfall returns to the forecast for Thursday.
Locally heavy rainfall may be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
750 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WSW VALLEY SPRING     30.83N 98.89W
10/15/2018                   LLANO              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE COUNTY ROADS (CR 404, CR 405, CR
            408, AND CR 409) ARE CLOSED THROUGHOUT THE
            COUNTY DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
756 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E VALLEY SPRING       30.87N 98.73W
10/15/2018                   LLANO              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CR 414 AT PECAN CREEK IS WASHED OUT.

&&

AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
801 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DOSS                    30.44N 99.13W
10/15/2018                   GILLESPIE          TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            VIA DRIVETEXAS.ORG RM 648, RM 783, AND FM
            2093 ARE ALL CLOSED IN GILLESPIE COUNTY DUE
            TO WATER OVER THE ROAD AND/OR LOW WATER
            CROSSINGS.

&&

AAT