Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
736 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Have let the flash flood watch expire but keeping an eye on the
training thunderstorms across portions of Henry county, IL and
into Bureau and Putnam counties. These storms are dumping up to an
inch of rain but expecting a gradual diminishing trend through mid
morning.

Back to the west, another MCS has been tracking eastward at 25 mph
across western and central Iowa, and at the current speed should
enter our western counties around 15z. Small hail is possible with
these storms.

SPC meso analysis page indicated a continued low level transport
feed of high PWAT air from the central Plains into Iowa and
northern Illinois. There is also a SBCAPE gradient across southern
Iowa and into western Illinois for these storms to continue to
ride along. SBCAPES at 12z were still 2000 j/kg in northeast MO.

Last night's MCS has left an extensive stratus deck this morning
and with continued scattered storms may be tough to get much
sunshine today. This would limit the severe threat but something
that will need to be monitored as the day progresses. Our southern
counties have totally missed the rain the past couple of days and
are in a moderate drought. The HRRR suggests our southern counties
to get the bulk of the storms this evening where the highest
instability will be located.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

MCS that pushed across the northern 2/3rds of the dvn cwa this
evening and into the overnight hours brought torrential rainfall
and some damaging winds. This MCS was pushing across northern and
central IL early this morning, as the low level transport flow
veers more westerly. However, the LLJ was strengthening in the
Plains and new convection was firing on the nose of this jet in
eastern Nebraska. Meanwhile, an upper low was spinning over se MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Today: The upper low will track across southern WI with the LLJ
extending from the southern/central Plains into Iowa. The upper
low and LLJ will provide the necessary forcing along with the
surface boundary. There will also be a host of outflow boundaries
around to help focus at least scattered convection for much of the
day. SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms but this is
conditional on the amount of instability due to the uncertainty on
amount of cloud cover. Highs will range from the mid 70s in far nw
IL to near 90 in the far southern counties.

Tonight: Low level moisture transport will continue with at least
scattered thunderstorms roaming the cwa, with the main boundary
still meandering in the area. Lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Later on Monday into Monday night a cold front arrives. This
looks to be a better set-up for severe as deep layer shear should
be somewhat stronger. SPC has a slight risk in southern
MN/central IA/nw MO but this will need to be monitored to see if
these storms can remain severe as they push into the dvn cwa
probably Monday evening. For now SPC has a marginal risk for the
dvn cwa. Highs should be in the 80s to lower 90s. The heat index
values will be in the upper 90s in our far southern cwa.

Tuesday and Wednesday: With the passage of the cold front this
looks to be a quiet period with comfortable temperatures and
humidity. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

Thursday through Saturday: The heat dome builds back northward
putting the area into the active pattern once again, with several
rounds of thunderstorms possible. However, this far out it is
difficult to determine the timing/location of MCS's or the severe
risk. Highs will push well into the 80s to near 90 once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

For KDBQ IFR conds this morning then becoming MVFR this afternoon.
For KCID/KMLI ocnl MVFR cigs this morning, then VFR conds this
afternoon. For KBRL VFR conds should prevail. An area of showers
and thunderstorms should impact portions of the area from the
west later this morning. At least scattered storms should continue
this afternoon and possibly become more numerous this evening.
Winds will be variable this morning but becoming mainly northeast
later this afternoon and into tonight. Wind speeds should be at
around 10 knots or less for much of this taf cycle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Flood watches have been issued for the length of the Wapsipinicon
and Cedar rivers in eastern Iowa. Heavy rainfall is again expected
tonight but exactly where and how much are not known. There is a
considerable amount of water that is forecast by the river models
to come down both river basins over the next 5 to 10 days.

The lower Iowa river from Columbus Junction to the mouth is also
expected to see significant rises as well. Flood watches may
eventually be needed for the Iowa river from Columbus Junction to
the mouth.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Haase
SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Haase
HYDROLOGY...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
415 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-110915-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
415 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe storms
across much of the outlook area.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected today and tonight. A few
of these storms may become severe especially this afternoon and
evening. The main risks will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and
hail up to the size of quarters. Locally heavy rain is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Monday and Monday night: The Storm Prediction Center has a
marginal risk for severe storms for much of the outlook area.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected especially
late afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Some of these
storms may become severe with the main risks damaging winds and
large hail.

Hot conditions are expected Monday afternoon south of Interstate
80. Heat indices should soar well into the 90s to near 100.

Thursday through Saturday: More chances for thunderstorms can be
expected. However, it is too early to determine the severe risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed especially this afternoon and evening.

Haase

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
852 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N MC NABB             41.22N 89.20W
06/10/2018                   PUTNAM             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER ACROSS ROUTE 89.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1039 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

ILC073-131-161-195-IAC031-115-139-163-183-101630-
Rock
Island-Mercer-Whiteside-Henry-Louisa-Cedar-Scott-Washington-
Muscatine-
1039 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ROCK ISLAND...MERCER...
SOUTHWESTERN WHITESIDE...WESTERN HENRY...LOUISA...SOUTHERN CEDAR...
SCOTT...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND MUSCATINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM
CDT...

At 1039 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Durant to near Grandview. Movement was
east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Davenport, Moline, Rock Island, Bettendorf, Muscatine, East Moline,
Aledo, Tipton, Wapello, Columbus Junction, Durant, Silvis, Eldridge,
Milan, Colona, Le Claire, Coal Valley, West Liberty, Wilton and
Burgess.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 74 in Iowa between mile markers 1 and 5.
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 258 and 306.
 Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 1 and 17.
 Interstate 74 in Illinois between mile markers 1 and 30.
 Interstate 88 between mile markers 1 and 19.
 Interstate 280 between mile markers 1 and 18.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4142 9146 4142 9137 4156 9137 4177 9122
      4169 9004 4115 9036 4115 9044 4106 9044
      4118 9162
TIME...MOT...LOC 1539Z 281DEG 43KT 4160 9093 4124 9124

RP Kinney