Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Quad Cities, IA

289 
WWUS53 KDVN 100419
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1119 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

IAC095-107-183-100445-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-180610T0445Z/
Keokuk IA-Washington IA-Iowa IA-
1119 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN KEOKUK...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN IOWA
COUNTIES...

At 1119 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Keswick, or 13
miles north of Sigourney, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Wellman, North English, Keswick, South English, Parnell, Millersburg,
Kinross, Webster and Holbrook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 9227 4165 9184 4144 9184 4144 9225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 263DEG 32KT 4152 9227 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Gibbs

602 
WWUS53 KDVN 100441
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

IAC095-107-183-100451-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-180610T0445Z/
Keokuk IA-Washington IA-Iowa IA-
1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KEOKUK...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN IOWA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
1145 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4160 9227 4165 9184 4144 9184 4144 9225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 264DEG 32KT 4154 9204 

$$

McClure

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
918 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

...HYDROLOGY UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Convectively enhanced short wave was noted in the water vapor loop
rolling east-southeast acrs south central MN, while a wavy quasi-
stationary front was draped acrs IA from NW-to-SE. Satellite imagery
and various observations suggest convective debris from this
morning's activity thinning, but conditions haven't quite recovered
to what the models suggested they would. But mixed layer CAPEs
recovered currently to 1500 to 2000 J/KG, and may get a bit higher
through early evening. Higher CAPES noted back acrs central IA which
may be a propagation target as well later tonight, maybe even more
than our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Tonight...as the above mentioned MN wave digs toward southeastern WI
and northeastern IL through Sunday morning, both LLVL shear and bulk
shear profiles(40-50+ KTS) are fcst to increase on this features
southern flank acrs the local area as the evening and night
progress. With the the main undulating boundary, as well as outflow
debris boundaries laid out acrs the CWA for shear convergence, 1500
to 2500+ CAPEs lingering into the night along with the increasing
shear support increasing storms from the north as the evening
progresses, with all modes of severe possible. A chance for low
coverage/isolated discrete supercells acrs the northern third of the
CWA or along the boundary similar to a warm air advection wing of
storms. Hail and tornadoes would be a threat with these, but expect
more coverage from the IA/MN border storms bleeding down feeding on
elevated southerly 40+ KT LLJ, and trending into bow segments or
sharped edged clusters. Forcing timing as well as THTA-E feed
parameters suggest coverage increasing north of I80 after 02z-03z or
so, and the north to northeast half or a bit more of the CWA seeing
waves of storms well into the overnight. Thus with the bow segments
and possible cold pool mechanics, see the transition to mainly
damaging winds later tonight into early Sunday morning.  Meso-
vortex tornadoes possible, but not sure the 30+ KT 0-3km shear
vectors will align perpendicular enough with southward advancing
strom segments.

PWAT's of 1.7 to near 2 inches possible tonight combined with the
shear support intense rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches an hour.
While the storms are expected to be more progressive, there is the
possibility of areas getting hit more than once, as well as additional
storm formation from LLJ impingement on lingering outflow/cold pool
boundaries for localized training(repeated storms moving over the
same areas)of storms. With many areas in the north half of the CWA
already water logged and sensitive to run-off after 2 to 5+ inches
of rain over the past two days, have issued a flash flood watch
generally along and north of I80. Heavy rainfall possible to the
south of I80 as well, but more of those areas able to take some
heavy rain.

Sunday...Marginal risk continues acrs the entire CWA, but like
previous days much will depend on morning lingering storms and
convective debris hampering renewed afternoon and evening
development. Forcing on the southwest flank of the passing wave acrs
southern LK Michigan suggests a better chance for renewed storms
clusters of MCS development may be just off to the east and
southeast of the DVN CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. But the
southern CWA may still be at risk for sctrd storms by Sunday evening
with lingering frontal boundary convergence in those areas if
atmospheric recovery is adequate. High temps a challenge with bust
potential in many areas, with a large gradient possible from
northwest-to-southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

In brief, the next main forced precip event, which could produce
strong to severe storms, looks to be with an upper trof pushing
east acrs the northern plains into the western GRT LKS late Monday
and Monday night. Very warm and humid conditions possible on
Monday before the storms arrive. Then for the rest of the week,
plenty of dry hours as the southwestern plains thermal ridge tries
to re-invigorate and build back toward the Midwest. But this
battle zone may foster some storm clusters at times that may clip
our area, especially in the evening and overnight with nocturnal
WAA processes. Temps to remain near to above normal even if the
brunt of the heat dome stays off to our southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Isolated TSRA are expected to grow upscale into an organized
thunderstorm complex 03z-12z/10. VFR conditions are expected to
deteriorate to MVFR with IFR/LIFR conditions possible in the
stronger storms. After 12z/10 MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to
continue with rain and TSRA coverage slowly dissipating.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Flood watches have been issued for the length of the Wapsipinicon
and Cedar rivers in eastern Iowa. Heavy rainfall is again expected
tonight but exactly where and how much are not known. There is a
considerable amount of water that is forecast by the river models
to come down both river basins over the next 5 to 10 days.

The lower Iowa river from Columbus Junction to the mouth is also
expected to see significant rises as well. Flood watches may
eventually be needed for the Iowa river from Columbus Junction to
the mouth.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for Benton-Buchanan-
     Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Jones-Linn-Muscatine-
     Scott.

IL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for Bureau-Carroll-Henry
     IL-Jo Daviess-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Whiteside.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
HYDROLOGY...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
308 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-102015-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
308 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk for severe
storms across much of the Outlook Area, generally along an axis
from northwest of Cedar Rapids, through the Quad Cities, and
Galesburg Illinois for this evening and overnight. A slight risk
remains in affect for most of the rest of the Outlook Area.

After an afternoon lull in the storm activity, more thunderstorms
are then expected to either develop over, or move in from the
northwest this evening and into the overnight. Some of the storms
may be severe with damaging winds and large hail the main threats.
But isolated tornadoes will also be possible with a strong storm
moving along a frontal boundary. More torrential rain and frequent
lightning will also accompany these storms, which could lead to
flash flooding across areas already hit by recent heavy rainfall.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect tonight for areas northeast of a
line from Vinton, Iowa, to the Quad Cities and Geneseo, Illinois.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe storms
across the outlook area for Sunday and Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms can be expected Sunday and
Monday, as a cold front gradually pushes towards the area. Some of
these storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds the
main threat. The cold front will push across the area by Monday night.

Hot conditions are expected Monday afternoon especially south of
Interstate 80. Heat indices should soar well into the 90s to near 100.

Thursday and Friday: More chances for thunderstorms can be
expected. However, it is too early to determine the severe risk
for late next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this evening and into the overnight.

12/RP Kinney

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1016 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             CENTER POINT            42.18N 91.78W
06/09/2018  E0.25 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1017 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W CEDAR RAPIDS        41.98N 91.75W
06/09/2018  M1.25 INCH       LINN               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STILL RAINING. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY
            RAIN EVENT WAS 30 MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1018 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             MANCHESTER              42.48N 91.45W
06/09/2018  M0.25 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1024 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     TSTM WND GST     CEDAR RAPIDS AIRPORT    41.88N 91.71W
06/09/2018  M46 MPH          LINN               IA   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1043 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S WINTHROP GOLF COURS 42.45N 91.66W
06/09/2018                   BUCHANAN           IA   PUBLIC

            GRAVEL ROADS COVERED IN RUNNING WATER.

&&

DLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1053 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     TSTM WND GST     TODDVILLE               42.10N 91.71W
06/09/2018  E70 MPH          LINN               IA   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&