Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Quad Cities, IA

944 
WGUS73 KDVN 100310
FFSDVN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1010 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

IAC019-100815-
/O.CON.KDVN.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180610T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan IA-
1010 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM CDT FOR
BUCHANAN COUNTY...

At 948 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding in 
Independence and rural areas of Buchanan county due to slow moving 
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Doppler radar estimates show rainfall 
amounts over 3 inches has fallen over central and northern Buchanan 
county over the past 2 hours. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include... 
Independence, Jesup, Fairbank, Winthrop, Hazleton, Quasqueton, 
Lamont, Aurora, Stanley, Winthrop Golf Course, Wapsipinicon Golf 
Course, Fontana County Park, Littleton, Monti, Buchanan County 
Fairgrounds, Otterville, Independence Airport, Jakway Park and 
Fontana Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 4247 9161 4247 9160 4235 9160 4240 9206
      4247 9206 4247 9208 4264 9208 4264 9161

$$

Sheets

806 
WGUS73 KDVN 100815
FFSDVN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
315 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

IAC019-100824-
/O.EXP.KDVN.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180610T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan IA-
315 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 315 AM
CDT...

The heavy rain has ended and flood waters have receded. Flooding is 
no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4247 9161 4247 9160 4235 9160 4240 9206
      4247 9206 4247 9208 4264 9208 4264 9161

$$

Sheets

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
640 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Convectively enhanced short wave was noted in the water vapor loop
rolling east-southeast acrs south central MN, while a wavy quasi-
stationary front was draped acrs IA from NW-to-SE. Satellite imagery
and various observations suggest convective debris from this
morning's activity thinning, but conditions haven't quite recovered
to what the models suggested they would. But mixed layer CAPEs
recovered currently to 1500 to 2000 J/KG, and may get a bit higher
through early evening. Higher CAPES noted back acrs central IA which
may be a propagation target as well later tonight, maybe even more
than our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Tonight...as the above mentioned MN wave digs toward southeastern WI
and northeastern IL through Sunday morning, both LLVL shear and bulk
shear profiles(40-50+ KTS) are fcst to increase on this features
southern flank acrs the local area as the evening and night
progress. With the the main undulating boundary, as well as outflow
debris boundaries laid out acrs the CWA for shear convergence, 1500
to 2500+ CAPEs lingering into the night along with the increasing
shear support increasing storms from the north as the evening
progresses, with all modes of severe possible. A chance for low
coverage/isolated discrete supercells acrs the northern third of the
CWA or along the boundary similar to a warm air advection wing of
storms. Hail and tornadoes would be a threat with these, but expect
more coverage from the IA/MN border storms bleeding down feeding on
elevated southerly 40+ KT LLJ, and trending into bow segments or
sharped edged clusters. Forcing timing as well as THTA-E feed
parameters suggest coverage increasing north of I80 after 02z-03z or
so, and the north to northeast half or a bit more of the CWA seeing
waves of storms well into the overnight. Thus with the bow segments
and possible cold pool mechanics, see the transition to mainly
damaging winds later tonight into early Sunday morning.  Meso-
vortex tornadoes possible, but not sure the 30+ KT 0-3km shear
vectors will align perpendicular enough with southward advancing
strom segments.

PWAT's of 1.7 to near 2 inches possible tonight combined with the
shear support intense rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches an hour.
While the storms are expected to be more progressive, there is the
possibility of areas getting hit more than once, as well as additional
storm formation from LLJ impingement on lingering outflow/cold pool
boundaries for localized training(repeated storms moving over the
same areas)of storms. With many areas in the north half of the CWA
already water logged and sensitive to run-off after 2 to 5+ inches
of rain over the past two days, have issued a flash flood watch
generally along and north of I80. Heavy rainfall possible to the
south of I80 as well, but more of those areas able to take some
heavy rain.

Sunday...Marginal risk continues acrs the entire CWA, but like
previous days much will depend on morning lingering storms and
convective debris hampering renewed afternoon and evening
development. Forcing on the southwest flank of the passing wave acrs
southern LK Michigan suggests a better chance for renewed storms
clusters of MCS development may be just off to the east and
southeast of the DVN CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. But the
southern CWA may still be at risk for sctrd storms by Sunday evening
with lingering frontal boundary convergence in those areas if
atmospheric recovery is adequate. High temps a challenge with bust
potential in many areas, with a large gradient possible from
northwest-to-southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

In brief, the next main forced precip event, which could produce
strong to severe storms, looks to be with an upper trof pushing
east acrs the northern plains into the western GRT LKS late Monday
and Monday night. Very warm and humid conditions possible on
Monday before the storms arrive. Then for the rest of the week,
plenty of dry hours as the southwestern plains thermal ridge tries
to re-invigorate and build back toward the Midwest. But this
battle zone may foster some storm clusters at times that may clip
our area, especially in the evening and overnight with nocturnal
WAA processes. Temps to remain near to above normal even if the
brunt of the heat dome stays off to our southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Isolated TSRA are expected to grow upscale into an organized
thunderstorm complex 03z-12z/10. VFR conditions are expected to
deteriorate to MVFR with IFR/LIFR conditions possible in the
stronger storms. After 12z/10 MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to
continue with rain and TSRA coverage slowly dissipating.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Benton-Buchanan-
     Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Jones-Linn-Muscatine-
     Scott.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Bureau-Carroll-
     Henry IL-Jo Daviess-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Whiteside.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
308 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-102015-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
308 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk for severe
storms across much of the Outlook Area, generally along an axis
from northwest of Cedar Rapids, through the Quad Cities, and
Galesburg Illinois for this evening and overnight. A slight risk
remains in affect for most of the rest of the Outlook Area.

After an afternoon lull in the storm activity, more thunderstorms
are then expected to either develop over, or move in from the
northwest this evening and into the overnight. Some of the storms
may be severe with damaging winds and large hail the main threats.
But isolated tornadoes will also be possible with a strong storm
moving along a frontal boundary. More torrential rain and frequent
lightning will also accompany these storms, which could lead to
flash flooding across areas already hit by recent heavy rainfall.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect tonight for areas northeast of a
line from Vinton, Iowa, to the Quad Cities and Geneseo, Illinois.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe storms
across the outlook area for Sunday and Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms can be expected Sunday and
Monday, as a cold front gradually pushes towards the area. Some of
these storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds the
main threat. The cold front will push across the area by Monday night.

Hot conditions are expected Monday afternoon especially south of
Interstate 80. Heat indices should soar well into the 90s to near 100.

Thursday and Friday: More chances for thunderstorms can be
expected. However, it is too early to determine the severe risk
for late next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this evening and into the overnight.

12/RP Kinney

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
413 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE NORA              42.45N 89.94W
06/09/2018  M1.70 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
841 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N INDEPENDENCE        42.49N 91.89W
06/09/2018  E60 MPH          BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AT ABOUT A 45 DEGREE ANGLE, NO TREE DAMAGE
            VISIBILE.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
902 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     HAIL             1 ESE INDEPENDENCE      42.47N 91.87W
06/09/2018  E1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           IA   PUBLIC

&&

PS