Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

MCS which moved into southern Iowa this morning lingered in the
area all day. Thunderstorms on the western edge of the complex
intensified this afternoon producing locally heavy rain.
Thunderstorms were elevated in nature and were being supported by
warm and moist influx from the wsw. Will keep these storms going
early until the diurnal support diminishes towards evening. The
surface front was south of Iowa across northern Missouri this
afternoon. This boundary should remain nearly stationary tonight.
A strong low-level jet should intensify across the central plains
and overrun the boundary and support the development of elevated
thunderstorms over central Iowa. These storms, once they form,
should remain nearly stationary overnight since the forcing
mechanisms remain in place. As a result, we should see a swath of
locally heavy rain. At this time, it appears the heavy rain should
remain south of the flood hit areas in the Cedar Basin.

The thunderstorm activity should diminish as the low-level jet
decreases Monday morning. Meanwhile, the much anticipated upper
trough should move into the northern plains and eventually through
the upper midwest Monday night and Tuesday. The associated front
should move through central Iowa Tuesday night. Before it
arrives,the old surface boundary over northern Missouri will
struggle to lift north across Iowa on Monday. This will make
temperatures difficult so the confidence of the temperature
forecast is below average on Monday. We should see considerable
cloud debris and at least a chance showers and storms during the
day.

With the approaching frontal zone Monday night, there is a good
chance of more thunderstorms Monday evening. The CAMs at this
range keep the more robust storms over southern Iowa which is
consistent with the slight risk area for severe weather.

.LONG TERM.../Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

A surface high with drier air behind the front should provide
drier and cooler air across Iowa. Even with that, temperatures
will remain above normal for early June. The dry weather should
allow flooded areas some time to recover.

After the upper trough passes to the east by midweek, the models
are consistent in rising 500 mb heights and building unseasonably
warm air north into the upper midwest. There is a good signal for
warm advection, moisture transport supported, thunderstorms across
central Iowa Wednesday night as the warm and humid air returns.
After that, precipitation chances should be low with highs in the
lower to mid 90s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night/
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Main TAF concern will be for quasi-stationary line of storms that
has developed between KFOD and KDSM.  Heavy rain and lightning will
be the danger to aviation.  Widespread MVFR/local IFR cigs expected
over all TAF's through 15Z before improving some.  IFR vsbys likely
due to heavy rain with storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

River flooding concerns remain focused over parts of north
central into northeast Iowa, but there may be an isolated concern
over a small part of southwest Iowa on some tributaries of the
East Nishnabotna River. The Winnebago River in Mason City fell
below flood stage this morning with Iowa Flood Center gauges along
Willow Creek in and near Mason City falling to levels similar to
where they were Saturday afternoon before the rain started. This
likely means elevated, but not out of bank levels along much of
Willow Creek. For the Shell Rock River, the flood crest has
recently occurred at Marble Rock at mid-afternoon per an Iowa
Flood Center Gauge. Rises should slow as the crest occurs likely
later today or later this evening before beginning to fall in
Greene and Clarksville. The river will crest in Shell Rock early
Monday morning as well. Flooding is also forecast along the Cedar
River in Cedar Falls and Waterloo as the water from the Cedar
tributaries routes downstream. The bulk of heavier rainfall
should stay south of these Winnebago, Shell Rock, and Cedar basins
tonight, but a cold front will bring additional storms across
these basins later Monday into Monday night. This rainfall should
be briefly heavy, but should be more progressive than previous
days and mitigate against an otherwise greater threat. Farther
southwest over parts of southwest Iowa, a band of showers and
thunderstorms have been fairly stationary over parts of Shelby
into southwest Audubon and northern Cass Counties with radar
estimated rain totals averaging 3 to 5 inches with isolated higher
totals possible as of mid-afternoon Sunday. Automated weather
stations in this area indicate radar estimates may be a bit high,
but have one gauge near Elk Horn recording almost 3.5 inches
today so far. The mitigating factors to these rain amounts is that
antecedent conditions have been on the drier side and the rain
has fallen over a prolonged period since 5 or 6am this morning.
However, tributaries of the East Nishnabotna River may be primed
if future heavy rain falls over these basins.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1011 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033-034-037-038-044-045-049-050-057-
058-062-070-071-075-081-082-086-092-093-097-120315-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Sac-Calhoun-Hardin-Grundy-
Crawford-Carroll-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Poweshiek-Cass-
Adair-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Davis-
1011 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight. Isolated severe
storms are possible with large hail and damaging winds. Heavy
rainfall could occur with any storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorms are possible later Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. A few severe storms will be possible with the
primary threats damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Large
hail and isolated tornadoes may also occur.

Scattered storms are possible at times from Wednesday night
through Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times through Monday night.

IAZ027-028-039-120315-
Butler-Bremer-Black Hawk-
1011 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight.
Isolated severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging
winds. Locally heavy rainfall could occur with any storms.

River Flood Warnings are in effect along the Shell Rock and Cedar
River basins. Please refer to our website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorms are possible later Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. A few severe storms will be possible with the
primary threats damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Large
hail and isolated tornadoes may also occur.

Scattered storms are possible at times from Wednesday night
through Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times through Monday night.

IAZ035-036-046>048-059>061-072>074-083>085-094>096-120315-
Webster-Hamilton-Greene-Boone-Story-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-
1011 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 8 AM. Please refer to our
website at weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are likely tonight. Isolated
severe storms are possible with threat being large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorms are possible later Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. A few severe storms will be possible with the
primary threats damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Large
hail and isolated tornadoes may also occur.

Scattered storms are possible at times from Wednesday night
through Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times through Monday night.

FAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
313 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

IAZ015-023-024-034-035-110900-
Humboldt IA-Palo Alto IA-Calhoun IA-Webster IA-Pocahontas IA-
313 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

...Line of Storms May Produce Dime Size Hail...

At 312 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pocahontas, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pocahontas, Manson, North Twin Lake, West Bend, Pomeroy, Fonda,
Rolfe, Gilmore City, Twin Lakes, Mallard, Palmer, Havelock, Plover,
Knierim, Curlew, Rodman, Pocahontas Municipal Airport and Twin Lakes
State Park.

LAT...LON 4302 9444 4239 9440 4258 9486 4305 9482
TIME...MOT...LOC 0812Z 302DEG 9KT 4266 9470

Kotenberg

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