Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Des Moines, IA

198 
WWUS53 KDMX 110219
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

IAC039-110245-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-180611T0245Z/
Clarke IA-
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY...

At 919 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Osceola, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Osceola and Woodburn. 

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 35 and 41.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4110 9382 4114 9378 4114 9369 4107 9355
      4103 9356 4096 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 321DEG 18KT 4109 9373 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Curtis

481 
WWUS53 KDMX 110244
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
944 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

IAC039-110254-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-180611T0245Z/
Clarke IA-
944 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and is exiting the warned area. Therefore, the warning will 
be allowed to expire.  However small hail and heavy rain are still 
possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4110 9382 4114 9378 4114 9369 4107 9355
      4103 9356 4096 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 321DEG 18KT 4099 9363 

$$

Curtis

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
649 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

MCS which moved into southern Iowa this morning lingered in the
area all day. Thunderstorms on the western edge of the complex
intensified this afternoon producing locally heavy rain.
Thunderstorms were elevated in nature and were being supported by
warm and moist influx from the wsw. Will keep these storms going
early until the diurnal support diminishes towards evening. The
surface front was south of Iowa across northern Missouri this
afternoon. This boundary should remain nearly stationary tonight.
A strong low-level jet should intensify across the central plains
and overrun the boundary and support the development of elevated
thunderstorms over central Iowa. These storms, once they form,
should remain nearly stationary overnight since the forcing
mechanisms remain in place. As a result, we should see a swath of
locally heavy rain. At this time, it appears the heavy rain should
remain south of the flood hit areas in the Cedar Basin.

The thunderstorm activity should diminish as the low-level jet
decreases Monday morning. Meanwhile, the much anticipated upper
trough should move into the northern plains and eventually through
the upper midwest Monday night and Tuesday. The associated front
should move through central Iowa Tuesday night. Before it
arrives,the old surface boundary over northern Missouri will
struggle to lift north across Iowa on Monday. This will make
temperatures difficult so the confidence of the temperature
forecast is below average on Monday. We should see considerable
cloud debris and at least a chance showers and storms during the
day.

With the approaching frontal zone Monday night, there is a good
chance of more thunderstorms Monday evening. The CAMs at this
range keep the more robust storms over southern Iowa which is
consistent with the slight risk area for severe weather.

.LONG TERM.../Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

A surface high with drier air behind the front should provide
drier and cooler air across Iowa. Even with that, temperatures
will remain above normal for early June. The dry weather should
allow flooded areas some time to recover.

After the upper trough passes to the east by midweek, the models
are consistent in rising 500 mb heights and building unseasonably
warm air north into the upper midwest. There is a good signal for
warm advection, moisture transport supported, thunderstorms across
central Iowa Wednesday night as the warm and humid air returns.
After that, precipitation chances should be low with highs in the
lower to mid 90s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Central into easter TAF locations will remain mired in MVFR cigs
though KALO and KOTM should be on the fringe of the lower cigs and
may scatter out at times.  Aft 03Z thunderstorms should re-develop
over central Iowa and remain nearly stationary...impacting mainly
KMCW, KFOD and KDSM. Far eastern TAF's may be more impacted after
12Z.  Heavy rain will produce vsby restrictions and lowered cigs.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

River flooding concerns remain focused over parts of north
central into northeast Iowa, but there may be an isolated concern
over a small part of southwest Iowa on some tributaries of the
East Nishnabotna River. The Winnebago River in Mason City fell
below flood stage this morning with Iowa Flood Center gauges along
Willow Creek in and near Mason City falling to levels similar to
where they were Saturday afternoon before the rain started. This
likely means elevated, but not out of bank levels along much of
Willow Creek. For the Shell Rock River, the flood crest has
recently occurred at Marble Rock at mid-afternoon per an Iowa
Flood Center Gauge. Rises should slow as the crest occurs likely
later today or later this evening before beginning to fall in
Greene and Clarksville. The river will crest in Shell Rock early
Monday morning as well. Flooding is also forecast along the Cedar
River in Cedar Falls and Waterloo as the water from the Cedar
tributaries routes downstream. The bulk of heavier rainfall
should stay south of these Winnebago, Shell Rock, and Cedar basins
tonight, but a cold front will bring additional storms across
these basins later Monday into Monday night. This rainfall should
be briefly heavy, but should be more progressive than previous
days and mitigate against an otherwise greater threat. Farther
southwest over parts of southwest Iowa, a band of showers and
thunderstorms have been fairly stationary over parts of Shelby
into southwest Audubon and northern Cass Counties with radar
estimated rain totals averaging 3 to 5 inches with isolated higher
totals possible as of mid-afternoon Sunday. Automated weather
stations in this area indicate radar estimates may be a bit high,
but have one gauge near Elk Horn recording almost 3.5 inches
today so far. The mitigating factors to these rain amounts is that
antecedent conditions have been on the drier side and the rain
has fallen over a prolonged period since 5 or 6am this morning.
However, tributaries of the East Nishnabotna River may be primed
if future heavy rain falls over these basins.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson
HYDROLOGY...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
413 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>038-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-112115-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-
Hardin-Grundy-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-
Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-
Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
413 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight.
Isolated severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging
winds. Locally heavy rainfall could occur with any storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorms are possible later Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. A few severe storms will be possible with the
primary threats damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Large
hail and isolated tornadoes may also occur.

Scattered storms are possible at times from Wednesday night
through Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times through Monday night.

IAZ027-028-039-112115-
Butler-Bremer-Black Hawk-
413 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight.
Isolated severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging
winds. Locally heavy rainfall could occur with any storms.

River Flood Warnings are in effect along the Shell Rock and Cedar
River basins. Please refer to our website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorms are possible later Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. A few severe storms will be possible with the
primary threats damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Large
hail and isolated tornadoes may also occur.

Scattered storms are possible at times from Wednesday night
through Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times through Monday night.

Ansorge

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
823 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

IAZ072-073-083-110215-
Clarke IA-Madison IA-Warren IA-
823 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...Dime Sized Hail...

At 823 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Avenue Of The Saints Event Center, or 8 miles southeast of Winterset,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Osceola, Avenue Of The Saints Event Center, St. Charles, New
Virginia, Truro, Patterson, St. Marys and East Peru.

LAT...LON 4105 9378 4131 9399 4138 9384 4116 9352
      4116 9356 4114 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 316DEG 19KT 4130 9387

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
834 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

IAZ059-060-072-110215-
Polk IA-Madison IA-Dallas IA-
834 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...Dime to Nickel Hail...

At 833 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dallas Center, or near Adel, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Des Moines, West Des Moines, Urbandale, Clive, Waukee, Grimes, Adel,
Windsor Heights, Dallas Center, De Soto, Van Meter, Jordan Creek Town
Center, Valley West Mall, Minburn, Badger Creek State Park and Walnut
Woods State Park.

LAT...LON 4172 9412 4176 9403 4157 9367 4145 9393
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 316DEG 17KT 4167 9399

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
904 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

IAZ059-072-073-110245-
Madison IA-Dallas IA-Warren IA-
904 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...Up to Nickel Sized Hail...

At 903 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Van Meter, or near West Des Moines, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Des Moines, Indianola, Norwalk, Avenue Of The Saints Event
Center, Martensdale, Cumming, St. Marys, Bevington, Spring Hill and
Badger Creek State Park.

LAT...LON 4125 9375 4148 9398 4156 9384 4154 9379
      4151 9379 4151 9374 4140 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 313DEG 19KT 4149 9387

Curtis