Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
305 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...Updated Long Term...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

Southern MCS has intensified strongly tonight, as it encounters
a strongly unstable airmass to ingest. Rear inflow jet behind the
departing bow apex has been impressive on radar, with velocity to
near hurricane force just off the deck. Gusts of 55-70 mph have
been observed with the rear inflow jet alone. Pops were aligned
with severe thunderstorm watch for the eastern zones to account
for the squall line/MCS and high wind hazard. Storms are merging
with another severe MCS arriving from NW KS. Still expecting all
storms to clear SW KS by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday and Thursday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

As of midnight, a large mature MCS was in progress across
SW Nebraska, NW Kansas, and NE Colorado. Satellite imagery and
lightning data indicate this complex is still quite intense with
cloud tops to -80C. A smaller MCS has produced very beneficial
rainfall across far SW Kansas this evening; these storms are
gradually weakening as they drift further east. Instability
remains high (ML CAPE still near 3000 J/kg as of midnight) but
forcing remains nebulous and storms are struggling against
nocturnal boundary layer cooling and strong capping aloft. Showers
and storms from this complex will progress eastward overnight,
clearing the eastern zones around sunrise. Will be watching the
complex entering NW Kansas carefully for the next few hours. Per
latest SPC mesoscale discussion, this MCS will be directed SE into
the low level jet through sunrise, likely affecting (at least
approaching) the NE zones by sunrise Thursday. Strong outflow
winds of 40-60 mph will be the primary threat. With very high
boundary layer moisture content, excessively heavy rainfall is
likely whereever storms decide to track. With anvil overcast and
moist SE winds outside of convection, temperatures will struggle
to fall into the upper 60s through sunrise.

Thursday...Hot and humid by afternoon. Some disparity in the
guidance on temperatures, with GFS/MAV guidance suggesting upper
90s near 100 (with lower dewpoints), while NAM/MET guidance
suggests lower 90s for more zones with higher dewpoints. Tried to
split the difference on this; it will all feel hot. With its
higher boundary layer moisture, 00z NAM develops extreme
instability (lifted index near -10C, CAPE near 5000 J/kg) by early
afternoon. Capping will be strong with 700 mb temps near 14C, so
most zones will be dry most of daylight Thursday. Still, it is
difficult to ignore the amount of instability that is being
forecasted, and various mesoscale outflow boundaries from
tonight's storms will be drifting around at peak heating. Forcing
for ascent aloft is nebulous, but have noted ECMWF's weak
shortwave dampening the ridging aloft, squarely over SW KS at peak
heating. ECMWF favors storms over the southern zones Thursday
afternoon. SPC has placed a marginal 5% wind/hail probability
everywhere, with severe downbursts/large hail likely occurring
whereever storms decide to develop. Broadbrushed slight chance
pops Thursday afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

Due to ongoing severe weather, little time was spent on the long
term. A quick look at medium range models and 00z ECMWF show hot
afternoon temperatures continuing (90s). Instability will remain
each afternoon and evening, with seasonal levels of moisture, but
forcing will remain scant with broad ridging aloft. Thunderstorm
coverage will be very low each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Scattered convection near GCK/LBL as of 04z will continue to
spread eastward overnight, eventually with impacts at/near DDC.
An additional large complex of storms (MCS) entering far NW Kansas
as of 04z will spread SE overnight, ending up near HYS during the
09-12z Thu timeframe. Thunderstorms will be capable of outflow
winds of 40-50 kts, frequent lightning, and brief but significant
flight category reductions in heavy rain. Included convective
TEMPO groups at all airports when impacts are most likely.
Convective complex will exit SW KS during the 12-15z Thu
timeframe, with airports expected to remain dry during daylight
hours Thursday. SE winds will prevail through this TAF forecast
cycle outside of convection. After 15z Thu, SE winds will increase
markedly at all terminals once again, gusting in the 25-30 kt
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  67  96  69 /  20  20  10  20
GCK  95  66  97  67 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  65  98  67 /  20  20  10  20
LBL  98  66  99  69 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  88  68  94  67 /  20  20   0  10
P28  94  70  96  71 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW DODGE CITY         37.78N 100.05W
06/07/2018                   FORD               KS   PUBLIC

            PROPANE TANK AND GRILL SLAMMED AGAINST THE
            WALL. HEAVY GLASS PATIO TABLE FLIPPED AND
            SHATTERED. CHAIRS BLOWN SOMEWHERE TO THE
            EAST.

&&

LCR

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