Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday and Thursday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

As of midnight, a large mature MCS was in progress across
SW Nebraska, NW Kansas, and NE Colorado. Satellite imagery and
lightning data indicate this complex is still quite intense with
cloud tops to -80C. A smaller MCS has produced very beneficial
rainfall across far SW Kansas this evening; these storms are
gradually weakening as they drift further east. Instability
remains high (ML CAPE still near 3000 J/kg as of midnight) but
forcing remains nebulous and storms are struggling against
nocturnal boundary layer cooling and strong capping aloft. Showers
and storms from this complex will progress eastward overnight,
clearing the eastern zones around sunrise. Will be watching the
complex entering NW Kansas carefully for the next few hours. Per
latest SPC mesoscale discussion, this MCS will be directed SE into
the low level jet through sunrise, likely affecting (at least
approaching) the NE zones by sunrise Thursday. Strong outflow
winds of 40-60 mph will be the primary threat. With very high
boundary layer moisture content, excessively heavy rainfall is
likely whereever storms decide to track. With anvil overcast and
moist SE winds outside of convection, temperatures will struggle
to fall into the upper 60s through sunrise.

Thursday...Hot and humid by afternoon. Some disparity in the
guidance on temperatures, with GFS/MAV guidance suggesting upper
90s near 100 (with lower dewpoints), while NAM/MET guidance
suggests lower 90s for more zones with higher dewpoints. Tried to
split the difference on this; it will all feel hot. With its
higher boundary layer moisture, 00z NAM develops extreme
instability (lifted index near -10C, CAPE near 5000 J/kg) by early
afternoon. Capping will be strong with 700 mb temps near 14C, so
most zones will be dry most of daylight Thursday. Still, it is
difficult to ignore the amount of instability that is being
forecasted, and various mesoscale outflow boundaries from
tonight's storms will be drifting around at peak heating. Forcing
for ascent aloft is nebulous, but have noted ECMWF's weak
shortwave dampening the ridging aloft, squarely over SW KS at peak
heating. ECMWF favors storms over the southern zones Thursday
afternoon. SPC has placed a marginal 5% wind/hail probability
everywhere, with severe downbursts/large hail likely occurring
whereever storms decide to develop. Broadbrushed slight chance
pops Thursday afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Thursday night will see another mild and muggy start to Friday
with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with high dewpoints
in the 60s and light southeasterly winds. Isolated areas of fog
are again possible due to this light upslope flow and previous
rainfalls expecting to quickly burn off by mid morning as the
surface becomes warmer and mixing occurs down to the surface.
Increased winds in the 10-15 mph range are expected once again
with high temperatures escalating into the mid to upper 90s under
high pressure. Another subtle short wave trough looks to propagate
through the area giving the CWA a marginal risk for severe weather
development. These will be isolated in nature due to moderate
lapse rates and weak upslope flow giving way to neutral height
differences. Flow aloft will again be weak not making this a
widespread event at this time. Most severe weather development
should be well to the north into Nebraska and southeastern
Wyoming.

Low temperatures through the middle of next week will see ranges
in the mid 60s to low 70s and high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s through Sunday. A bit of a change in the upper level
pattern comes Monday with the upper level trough pushing through
the high plains and dropping a dry frontal boundary briefly
shifting winds out of the northwest and cooler temperatures
comparative to what it has been. High temperatures for Monday
through Wednesday will be in the upper 80s and gradually becoming
low to mid 90s by mid week. Dry weather is expected from Saturday
through most of Tuesday, with chances for thunderstorm development
and isolated severe weather possible Tuesday evening and again on
Wednesday associated with a dryline that will setup across the
western counties. Upper level ridging will set back up over the
western high plains giving way to subtle short waves to pertebate
through southwest Kansas giving the precipitation chances across
the entire CWA with PoPs in the 20s at this time.

Again, moral of the story, summer has arrived with hot
temperatures and thunderstorm chances possible almost every late
afternoon and evening through at least the middle of next week and
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Scattered convection near GCK/LBL as of 04z will continue to
spread eastward overnight, eventually with impacts at/near DDC.
An additional large complex of storms (MCS) entering far NW Kansas
as of 04z will spread SE overnight, ending up near HYS during the
09-12z Thu timeframe. Thunderstorms will be capable of outflow
winds of 40-50 kts, frequent lightning, and brief but significant
flight category reductions in heavy rain. Included convective
TEMPO groups at all airports when impacts are most likely.
Convective complex will exit SW KS during the 12-15z Thu
timeframe, with airports expected to remain dry during daylight
hours Thursday. SE winds will prevail through this TAF forecast
cycle outside of convection. After 15z Thu, SE winds will increase
markedly at all terminals once again, gusting in the 25-30 kt
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  92  68  96 /  30  20  20  10
GCK  66  92  66  97 /  30  10  20  10
EHA  66  96  64  97 /  20  20  20  10
LBL  70 100  67  97 /  30  20  20  10
HYS  67  87  68  94 /  50  20  30  10
P28  70  94  71  96 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
420 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-071000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
420 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018 /320 AM MDT Wed Jun 6 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

There will be a slight chance for late afternoon thunderstorms
over far western Kansas and then a better chance for storms into
the late evening hours over west central and central Kansas.
Initially, the main severe weather threat will be large hail
although an isolated tornado could also be possible. Later in the
evening, the main threat will be from damaging winds.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms across the area
Thursday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds
being the main threats.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1223 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

KSZ030-031-045-070630-
Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
1223 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NESS...TREGO AND SOUTHWESTERN
ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1222 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Utica, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wakeeney, Ness City, Bazine, Ransom, Ogallah, Utica, Collyer,
Brownell, Trego Center, Cedar Bluff, Arnold, Riga and Voda.

LAT...LON 3842 9959 3835 10017 3870 10021 3870 10015
      3913 10015 3913 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 251DEG 11KT 3883 10018

Reynolds

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1235 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

KSZ077-078-087-088-070630-
Gray KS-Meade KS-Clark KS-Ford KS-
1235 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FORD...EASTERN MEADE...
SOUTHEASTERN GRAY AND WESTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1232 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of
thunderstorms extending from Montezuma to Kismet, moving east at 15
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickle-sized hail will be possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City, Cimarron, Meade, Ashland, Minneola, Fowler, Ensign,
Bloom, Englewood, Clark State Lake, Howell, Wright, The Haggard Elev,
Acres and Ft. Dodge.

LAT...LON 3701 10039 3783 10039 3783 9978 3701 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 266DEG 12KT 3750 10034

Reynolds