Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Dodge City, KS

108 
WWUS53 KDDC 200058
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
758 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

KSC051-200108-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-180620T0130Z/
Ellis KS-
758 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3871 9904 3871 9930 3884 9930 3913 9941
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 238DEG 36KT 3922 9915 3899 9907 3871 9919 

$$

UMSCHEID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Potential for severe weather, MCS, and heavy rain setting up from
this evening through the overnight. An upper level low in Montana
will kick out a shortwave which will move from central Colorado
into western Kansas through tonight. This wave will combine with
a stationary to an eventual cold front across west central Kansas
to produce several areas of rain. The highest confidence of the
heaviest rain of possibly 2-3 inches will be along and just south
of the I-70 corridor. Models are hinting at a couple rounds of
initiation with the first being during the afternoon and then
another round of storms coming in from northeast Colorado in
association with the main shortwave and cold front.

Severe threat initially this afternoon will be a short time frame
of supercells primarily along the Colorado border where we could
see large hail and an isolated tornado threat. As the event
evolves it will quickly become a wind threat as the storms will
quickly develop into a line and move across the area.

Wednesday as the upper low progresses into Nebraska and the
shortwave move into central Kansas the rain should gradually end
from west to east through the morning into the afternoon. With the
clouds hanging around and cold air advection high temperatures
will be in the lower to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The upper level low slowly moves eastward into Iowa Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning and will bring in a second cold
front across the region. This will lead to cooler temperatures
through the day Thursday into Friday morning.

The storm system should exit the area by Friday bringing the
return of southeast winds and moisture. Both GFS and Euro hint at
convection trying to develop along a warm front as a shortwave
moves out of Colorado by the late afternoon.

The weekend has another upper level low developing in the Pacific
northwest and moving towards the Rockies with a good baroclinic
zone developing roughly along the I-70 corridor. With upslope flow
and moisture in place the possibility of another heavy rain event
and MCS could be in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Thunderstorms are likely to continue across good portions of west
central, central, and much of southwest Kansas through late tonight
increasing the potential for periods of MVFR/IFR conditions in
the vicinity of all TAF sites. Outside of storm activity,
predominately VFR conditions will persist through early Wednesday
afternoon. Gusty south winds 15 to 25kt will persist across
central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas through late this
evening as a stationary boundary remains anchored from southeast
Colorado northeast into north central Kansas. Winds will then turn
northerly 10 to 20kt early to mid Wednesday morning as a cold
front pushes across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  84  61  81 /  90  50  10   0
GCK  63  84  59  82 /  90  30  10   0
EHA  62  84  60  86 /  70  20  10   0
LBL  65  84  61  86 /  80  30  10   0
HYS  66  82  60  77 /  90  20  10  10
P28  69  82  64  85 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ030-031-
043>045.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
336 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
336 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018 /236 AM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon
into the overnight period, first across west central Kansas
spreading southeast as the night progresses. The strongest storms
will be capable of producing hail around 2 inches and winds over
70 mph. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out across west
central Kansas late this afternoon.

A flash flood watch will be in effect along the I-70 corridor late
this afternoon into the overnight period. See the latest flood
product for more information.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across south central
Kansas Wednesday morning. These storms are not expected to be
severe at this time.

A chance of thunderstorms will be possible Friday night and again
Sunday. It is too early to tell if any of these storms will become
severe.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed first across west central Kansas
late this afternoon spreading southeast this evening into tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             1 WSW ROLLA             37.11N 101.65W
06/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       MORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
636 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND GST     TREGO CENTER            38.88N 99.89W
06/19/2018  E68 MPH          TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             ROLLA                   37.12N 101.63W
06/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       MORTON             KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
640 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             2 ENE WILBURTON         37.08N 101.73W
06/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       MORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             6 SSW ROLLA             37.04N 101.67W
06/19/2018  E1.50 INCH       MORTON             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SCOTT CITY              38.48N 100.91W
06/19/2018  E5.50 INCH       SCOTT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 5 TO 5.5 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL ON BOTH SIDES OF TOWN. TIME MATCHED
            TO APPROXIMATELY WHEN STORMS MOVED OUT OF
            THE AREA.

&&

LCR