Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1231 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms capable of significant damaging wind are
forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of central
Pennsylvania. A wet and muggy weather pattern will persist
through late week into the weekend with areas of locally heavy
rain and risk of flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93 just issue for all of our CWA
except for warren county - through 8 pm edt.

After a few hour break in the isolated early convection over
northern PA, generally cloud free skies and strong diabatic
diabatic heating and advection of low to mid 60s dewpoints is
priming the airmass for one or two lines of fast-moving tsra
headed across our far NW counties ATTM.

Latest HRRR has this expanding/intensifying line of TSRA
screaming across much of central and northern PA by 21Z,
while lagging back along its southern edge over the Lower Susq
Valley.

A second mesoscale mid/upper level vort max will ride east along
the sagging/slowing frontal boundary near the mason dixon line
tonight, bringing the chc for training heavy showers/tsra cells
and heavy rain. Flash flood watch there through the first half
of tonight issued very early this morning looks good.

Central and northern counties of the state will dry out with
some brief/partial clearing possible, before winds veer all the
way around through the north and northeast, helping to develop a
widespread lowering stratus deck toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A wet and humid weather pattern is expected to last through the
end of the week as tropical moisture flowing northward collides
with a stalled frontal zone across the Mid Atlantic region. This
should result in some relatively cooler days (vs. mid-May
climo) and warmer nights given moist/humid airmass. Highest
precip probs are over south-central PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A persistent flow of subtropical moisture interacting with a
quasi-stationary frontal system will keep conditions soggy over
the region for the foreseeable future. The front will wag north
and south for the next several days bringing periods of showers
and thunderstorms with very little chance of any 12 hour period
remaining dry in any one location. Proximity of drier air mass
and high pressure to the north over southern Canada means that
drier air will filter southward into far northern PA from time
to time, giving at least some chance of periodic drier periods
this week, but the main story is for daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms until further notice. The Thursday night into
Friday timeframe looks particularly wet as deep layer moisture
surges (PW near 2.0") thanks to amplification of the offshore
upper ridge coupled with a nearly stationary upper trough over
the central plains. This will direct copious subtropical
moisture northward into the eastern GLAKS and set the stage for
locally heavy rains and potential flooding given what will have
been a very wet week by that time.

Temperatures should be above seasonal climate averages this week
with a muggy summertime/humid feel given dewpoints in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions will be interrupted by a few brief
periods of MVFR/IFR with a gusty thunderstorm this afternoon and
early evening. Strongest westerly wind gusts expected across the
northern half of PA where westerly mid-level winds are over 50
kts.

A cold front will push south across the region This afternoon,
accompanied in many locations by a round of strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms, with briefly reduced
cigs/vsbys and possible strong wind gusts.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Rain/low cigs possible, mainly southern Pa.

Fri...Rain/low cigs likely.

Sat...Rain/low cigs possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some repeat/training convection (on the tail end of fcst
damaging Tstm wind complex) is possible across the southern tier
of central PA mainly this evening. Collaborated with adjacent
offices on FF watch across srn PA although would have preferred
to issue a more short-fused watch. 1-3hr FFGs as low as 1-1.5
inches suggest some runoff problems are possible.

Deep moisture feed advecting northward along stalled frontal
boundary suggests potential for heavy rain/FF risk through late
week. Current WPC EROs favor areas just south of PA for marginal
to slight risk of flash flooding.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ033>036-
056-057-059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir
AVIATION...Lambert
HYDROLOGY...lambert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
320 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066-161930-
Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
320 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-037-041-042-045-046-161930-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
320 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ026>028-049>053-058-161930-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-
Columbia-Schuylkill-
320 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ033-161930-
Somerset-
320 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             1 S LILLY               40.41N  78.62W
05/15/2018  E1.25 INCH       CAMBRIA            PA   PUBLIC

            HAIL LARGER THAN QUARTERS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801813

COLBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND GST     PENN VALLEY AIRPORT     40.82N  76.86W
05/15/2018  M52 MPH          SNYDER             PA   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801814

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
319 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S BERWICK             41.01N  76.25W
05/15/2018  M50 MPH          COLUMBIA           PA   PENNDOT RWIS

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801815

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
320 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W WESTOVER            40.75N  78.70W
05/15/2018                   CLEARFIELD         PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON PHONE LINES BLOCKING ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801816

COLBERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
323 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

PAZ026-034-035-152000-
Bedford PA-Fulton PA-Huntingdon PA-
323 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BEDFORD...HUNTINGDON...
AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 323 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Wells Tannery, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Waterfall and Coaldale around 330 PM EDT.
  Fort Littleton around 340 PM EDT.
  Rockhill Furnace around 345 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Saltillo, Hopewell,
Shade Gap, Defiance and Orbisonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 7826 4019 7828 4027 7792 4026 7772
      4018 7779 4007 7786 4000 7792
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 264DEG 38KT 4011 7817

Dangelo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW TROUT RUN          41.43N  77.13W
05/15/2018                   LYCOMING           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON HOME.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801817

COLBERT