Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS State College, PA

219 
WWUS51 KCTP 151904
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
304 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

PAC013-151913-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-180515T1930Z/
Blair PA-
304 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BLAIR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
south central and central Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4028 7821 4047 7781 4063 7750 4063 7696
      4040 7717 4027 7766 4029 7767 4026 7771
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 276DEG 35KT 4065 7728 4044 7756 4029 7798 

$$

PAC061-067-087-099-151930-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-180515T1930Z/
Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-Juniata PA-Perry PA-
304 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL HUNTINGDON...SOUTHWESTERN MIFFLIN...JUNIATA AND CENTRAL
PERRY COUNTIES...

At 303 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Mcalisterville to near Honey Grove to near Rockhill
Furnace, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Newport, Loysville, Ickesburg, Juniata Terrace, East
Waterford, New Bloomfield, Honey Grove, Blacklog and Perulack.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4028 7821 4047 7781 4063 7750 4063 7696
      4040 7717 4027 7766 4029 7767 4026 7771
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 276DEG 35KT 4065 7728 4044 7756 4029 7798 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Dangelo

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1231 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms capable of significant damaging wind are
forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of central
Pennsylvania. A wet and muggy weather pattern will persist
through late week into the weekend with areas of locally heavy
rain and risk of flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93 just issue for all of our CWA
except for warren county - through 8 pm edt.

After a few hour break in the isolated early convection over
northern PA, generally cloud free skies and strong diabatic
diabatic heating and advection of low to mid 60s dewpoints is
priming the airmass for one or two lines of fast-moving tsra
headed across our far NW counties ATTM.

Latest HRRR has this expanding/intensifying line of TSRA
screaming across much of central and northern PA by 21Z,
while lagging back along its southern edge over the Lower Susq
Valley.

A second mesoscale mid/upper level vort max will ride east along
the sagging/slowing frontal boundary near the mason dixon line
tonight, bringing the chc for training heavy showers/tsra cells
and heavy rain. Flash flood watch there through the first half
of tonight issued very early this morning looks good.

Central and northern counties of the state will dry out with
some brief/partial clearing possible, before winds veer all the
way around through the north and northeast, helping to develop a
widespread lowering stratus deck toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A wet and humid weather pattern is expected to last through the
end of the week as tropical moisture flowing northward collides
with a stalled frontal zone across the Mid Atlantic region. This
should result in some relatively cooler days (vs. mid-May
climo) and warmer nights given moist/humid airmass. Highest
precip probs are over south-central PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A persistent flow of subtropical moisture interacting with a
quasi-stationary frontal system will keep conditions soggy over
the region for the foreseeable future. The front will wag north
and south for the next several days bringing periods of showers
and thunderstorms with very little chance of any 12 hour period
remaining dry in any one location. Proximity of drier air mass
and high pressure to the north over southern Canada means that
drier air will filter southward into far northern PA from time
to time, giving at least some chance of periodic drier periods
this week, but the main story is for daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms until further notice. The Thursday night into
Friday timeframe looks particularly wet as deep layer moisture
surges (PW near 2.0") thanks to amplification of the offshore
upper ridge coupled with a nearly stationary upper trough over
the central plains. This will direct copious subtropical
moisture northward into the eastern GLAKS and set the stage for
locally heavy rains and potential flooding given what will have
been a very wet week by that time.

Temperatures should be above seasonal climate averages this week
with a muggy summertime/humid feel given dewpoints in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions will be interrupted by a few brief
periods of MVFR/IFR with a gusty thunderstorm this afternoon and
early evening. Strongest westerly wind gusts expected across the
northern half of PA where westerly mid-level winds are over 50
kts.

A cold front will push south across the region This afternoon,
accompanied in many locations by a round of strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms, with briefly reduced
cigs/vsbys and possible strong wind gusts.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Rain/low cigs possible, mainly southern Pa.

Fri...Rain/low cigs likely.

Sat...Rain/low cigs possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some repeat/training convection (on the tail end of fcst
damaging Tstm wind complex) is possible across the southern tier
of central PA mainly this evening. Collaborated with adjacent
offices on FF watch across srn PA although would have preferred
to issue a more short-fused watch. 1-3hr FFGs as low as 1-1.5
inches suggest some runoff problems are possible.

Deep moisture feed advecting northward along stalled frontal
boundary suggests potential for heavy rain/FF risk through late
week. Current WPC EROs favor areas just south of PA for marginal
to slight risk of flash flooding.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ033>036-
056-057-059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir
AVIATION...Lambert
HYDROLOGY...lambert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
102 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066-161715-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
102 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-045-049-050-161715-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-
102 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ037-041-042-046-051>053-058-161715-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
102 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-161715-
Warren-
102 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW OSCEOLA MILLS      40.86N  78.28W
05/15/2018                   CLEARFIELD         PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801804

COLBERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
159 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

PAZ024>026-151845-
Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-
159 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...BLAIR...AND
CAMBRIA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 158 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Tyrone to near Horseshoe Curve to near East
Conemaugh. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Tyrone, Bald Eagle and Birmingham around 205 PM EDT.
  Altoona, Hollidaysburg and Warriors Mark around 210 PM EDT.
  Franklinville and Bellwood around 215 PM EDT.
  Sinking Valley, Canoe Creek State Park and Lilly around 220 PM
  EDT.
  Williamsburg around 230 PM EDT.
  Whipple Dam State Park and Spruce Creek around 235 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Tunnelhill, Spring
Hill, Cassandra, Marklesburg and McConnellstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4054 7857 4074 7826 4074 7813 4069 7794
      4074 7783 4072 7777 4073 7768 4069 7771
      4068 7768 4058 7783 4055 7784 4051 7783
      4039 7807 4032 7840 4032 7860 4033 7862
      4032 7863 4031 7900
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 272DEG 27KT 4071 7824 4054 7849 4035 7884

Dangelo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E BELLWOOD            40.60N  78.31W
05/15/2018  M52 MPH          BLAIR              PA   PENNDOT RWIS

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801805

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
215 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E CRESSON             40.46N  78.57W
05/15/2018  M50 MPH          CAMBRIA            PA   PENNDOT RWIS

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801806

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
222 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     TSTM WND GST     UNIVERSITY PARK AIRPORT 40.85N  77.85W
05/15/2018  M58 MPH          CENTRE             PA   AWOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801807

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             PORTAGE                 40.39N  78.68W
05/15/2018  M1.00 INCH       CAMBRIA            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801808

COLBERT