Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1231 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms capable of significant damaging wind are
forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of central
Pennsylvania. A wet and muggy weather pattern will persist
through late week into the weekend with areas of locally heavy
rain and risk of flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93 just issue for all of our CWA
except for warren county - through 8 pm edt.

After a few hour break in the isolated early convection over
northern PA, generally cloud free skies and strong diabatic
diabatic heating and advection of low to mid 60s dewpoints is
priming the airmass for one or two lines of fast-moving tsra
headed across our far NW counties ATTM.

Latest HRRR has this expanding/intensifying line of TSRA
screaming across much of central and northern PA by 21Z,
while lagging back along its southern edge over the Lower Susq
Valley.

A second mesoscale mid/upper level vort max will ride east along
the sagging/slowing frontal boundary near the mason dixon line
tonight, bringing the chc for training heavy showers/tsra cells
and heavy rain. Flash flood watch there through the first half
of tonight issued very early this morning looks good.

Central and northern counties of the state will dry out with
some brief/partial clearing possible, before winds veer all the
way around through the north and northeast, helping to develop a
widespread lowering stratus deck toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A wet and humid weather pattern is expected to last through the
end of the week as tropical moisture flowing northward collides
with a stalled frontal zone across the Mid Atlantic region. This
should result in some relatively cooler days (vs. mid-May
climo) and warmer nights given moist/humid airmass. Highest
precip probs are over south-central PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A persistent flow of subtropical moisture interacting with a
quasi-stationary frontal system will keep conditions soggy over
the region for the foreseeable future. The front will wag north
and south for the next several days bringing periods of showers
and thunderstorms with very little chance of any 12 hour period
remaining dry in any one location. Proximity of drier air mass
and high pressure to the north over southern Canada means that
drier air will filter southward into far northern PA from time
to time, giving at least some chance of periodic drier periods
this week, but the main story is for daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms until further notice. The Thursday night into
Friday timeframe looks particularly wet as deep layer moisture
surges (PW near 2.0") thanks to amplification of the offshore
upper ridge coupled with a nearly stationary upper trough over
the central plains. This will direct copious subtropical
moisture northward into the eastern GLAKS and set the stage for
locally heavy rains and potential flooding given what will have
been a very wet week by that time.

Temperatures should be above seasonal climate averages this week
with a muggy summertime/humid feel given dewpoints in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions will be interrupted by a few brief
periods of MVFR/IFR with a gusty thunderstorm this afternoon and
early evening. Strongest westerly wind gusts expected across the
northern half of PA where westerly mid-level winds are over 50
kts.

A cold front will push south across the region This afternoon,
accompanied in many locations by a round of strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms, with briefly reduced
cigs/vsbys and possible strong wind gusts.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Rain/low cigs possible, mainly southern Pa.

Fri...Rain/low cigs likely.

Sat...Rain/low cigs possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some repeat/training convection (on the tail end of fcst
damaging Tstm wind complex) is possible across the southern tier
of central PA mainly this evening. Collaborated with adjacent
offices on FF watch across srn PA although would have preferred
to issue a more short-fused watch. 1-3hr FFGs as low as 1-1.5
inches suggest some runoff problems are possible.

Deep moisture feed advecting northward along stalled frontal
boundary suggests potential for heavy rain/FF risk through late
week. Current WPC EROs favor areas just south of PA for marginal
to slight risk of flash flooding.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ033>036-
056-057-059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir
AVIATION...Lambert
HYDROLOGY...lambert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
102 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066-161715-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
102 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-045-049-050-161715-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-
102 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ037-041-042-046-051>053-058-161715-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
102 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-161715-
Warren-
102 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
816 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

PAZ037-151300-
Tioga PA-
816 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF TIOGA COUNTY UNTIL 900
AM EDT...

At 815 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated several strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Westfield to 6 miles west of
Keeneyville to near Gaines. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Wellsboro, Elkland, Keeneyville, Millerton, Leonard
Harrison State Park, Covington, Westfield, Lawrenceville, Gaines,
Blossburg, Tioga, Roseville, Knoxville, Osceola, Tioga Junction and
Mansfield University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4169 7689 4168 7756 4185 7753 4200 7759
      4200 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1215Z 263DEG 50KT 4196 7749 4185 7742 4174 7748

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1057 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E SEVEN SPRINGS       40.03N  79.27W
05/14/2018                   SOMERSET           PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN JUST EAST OF SEVEN SPRINGS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801800

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1138 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

PAZ004-005-010-151630-
McKean PA-Warren PA-Elk PA-
1138 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ELK...WARREN...AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

At 1137 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Enterprise to 7 miles southeast of Oil City
to 9 miles east of Grove City. Movement was east at 75 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Sheffield and Chapman State Park around 1200 PM EDT.
  Ludlow around 1205 PM EDT.
  James City and Wetmore around 1210 PM EDT.
  Kane, Marshburg and Westline around 1215 PM EDT.
  East Branch Dam around 1220 PM EDT.
  Rew, Portland Mills and Cyclone around 1225 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Tidioute, Eldred,
Mount Jewett, Lewis Run and Clarendon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in State College PA.

&&

LAT...LON 4167 7961 4200 7820 4169 7821 4162 7828
      4161 7842 4146 7842 4141 7846 4132 7887
      4137 7897 4134 7910 4141 7910 4145 7906
      4144 7896 4162 7896 4163 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1537Z 250DEG 64KT 4160 7963 4137 7960 4115 7990

Lambert/Scully

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
103 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

PAZ037-151745-
Tioga PA-
103 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF TIOGA COUNTY UNTIL 145
PM EDT...

At 103 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Elkland to near Gaines. Movement was east at
50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elkland, Keeneyville, Millerton, Lawrenceville, Westfield, Knoxville,
Osceola, Tioga, Roseville and Tioga Junction.

LAT...LON 4199 7692 4183 7691 4180 7761 4189 7761
      4200 7748 4200 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 260DEG 43KT 4200 7723 4184 7756

Lambert