River Flood Warning 7, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes needed to the previous forecast. Adjusted
temperatures a bit to account for ongoing trends and to bump the
afternoon highs down a couple of degrees.

Training storms this morning, producing rainfall rates of 2-4"
per hour have resulted in significant flooding across the Coastal
Bend. Several flash flood warnings have been issued with a flash
flood emergency issued for Port Aransas where there has been
numerous water rescues and reports of water entering homes.
Additional rain is expected this morning as radar shows areas of
moderate to heavy rainfall over the Gulf Waters tracking inland
just north of Corpus Christi. The strongest showers/storms will
begin to diminish a bit late this afternoon, with lingering
showers around the area. Even with a lull in the rainfall, expect
flooding conditions to continue due to the significant amount of
rainfall we have received in the last couple of days.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 649 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions can be expected throughout the
day as num showers move across S TX, especially along and east of
highway 281. LRD will likely see an increase in areal coverage
through the day as a sfc axis moves slowly westward. Could also
see IFR visibilities with the heavier rainfall and an occasional
thunderstorm through the afternoon, but will leave the mention of
TSRA out of the TAFs as it will be mainly showers. Models show
some improvement by late afternoon or evening to VFR levels, but
the chance of showers will remain in the forecast through tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 449 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Will make this short as possible. Another round of heavy rainfall
expected today, with the main activity in the morning and
gradually moving inland during the day. Average rainfall amounts
through tonight (not including rainfall before 12Z today) will be
1 to 3 inches over the previous FFA area, so extended it through
tonight as any additional rainfall will likely cause flooding.
Drier air will gradually begin to filter in Thursday and even more
on Friday, generally from the north as an upper level ridge
finally tries to come back into the area. Based on WPC's Day 2
excessive rainfall outlook, will only go with the FFA through
tonight as any flooding on Thursday likely to be more isolated and
farther south. A later shift could decide on whether it is needed
to extend for Thursday, and that will mainly be based on NWS
forecast QPF for Thursday. Plenty of clouds and wet grounds should
help to keep temperatures down today, with similar temperatures
for lows tonight. For Thursday, there may be more sunshine, but
wet grounds will help keep temperatures down again except out to
the west where much less rainfall has been observed. Drier air
Friday and Saturday with upper ridge is expected to come in, but
rain begins to return by early next week as there is a hint of
another upper level low approaching the area. For temperatures,
generally went with a blend of short-range consensus and
Supreblend for high temperatures today and Thursday, with close to
Superblend and Bias-consensus guidance for lows through Friday
morning. After that, went with Superblend for highs (but did trim
temperatures a degree or two east of Highway 281 due to the
saturated soils), with a blend of Superblend and WPCGuide for
minimum temperatures.

MARINE...

Based on forecast wave heights, will maintain the SCA for the
offshore waters, with SCEC for the nearshore waters. SCA until 3
PM based on wave heights, with SE winds 15 to 20 knots. Conditions
should gradually improve, but still will have scattered to
numerous (if not widespread) convection today and tonight,
beginning (hopefully) to diminish in areal coverage and strength
Thursday through the rest of the week. Near SCA conditions at
times over the waters, as low pressure over West Texas deepens and
high pressure remains in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

COASTAL FLOODING...

Astronomical tide levels have come down over the last couple of
days, but levels are running one foot or more above predicted
levels at last look. Given the fact that there is still more
rainfall to come and some areas have received 5 to 10 inches of
rain, will keep the Coastal Flood Advisory going as there is
likely a lot of standing water and once high tide is approached
it could get close again (feeling is that it may not be would
rather be safe than sorry). Also, a borderline rip current risk
between moderate and high. Will again err on the side of caution
and extend both of these hazards through this evening. Additional
heavy rainfall would strand motorists away from beach access roads
so at this time do not want people to believe conditions are
improving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    83  76  87  77  91  /  90  70  70  30  20
Victoria          83  75  90  75  93  /  90  50  50  20  20
Laredo            89  77  91  77 101  /  70  40  40  30  10
Alice             84  75  88  75  94  /  80  60  70  30  20
Rockport          83  78  86  79  90  /  90  70  60  20  20
Cotulla           88  76  93  76 101  /  60  30  20  20  10
Kingsville        85  77  88  77  94  /  90  70  70  30  20
Navy Corpus       84  79  86  80  89  /  90  70  70  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight For the following zones:
     Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...
     Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...
     Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval...Goliad...
     Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland
     Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg
     Islands...Live Oak...Nueces Islands...Victoria.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg
     Islands...Nueces Islands.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight For the
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

TC/95...SHORT TERM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
610 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-211100-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
610 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tonight for the following
zone locations: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal
Aransas... Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...
Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval...Goliad... Inland
Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland
San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg Islands...Live Oak...Nueces
Islands...Victoria. Additional 1 to 3 inches, with isolated
amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible through tonight,
especially in thunderstorms.

There is a High Rip Current Risk until midnight for the following
zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...
Nueces Islands.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until midnight CDT for the
following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Kleberg
Islands...Nueces Islands

Scattered thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 3 or more
inches per hour at time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms Thursday will produce isolated
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents Thursday along gulf-
facing beaches.

Afternoon heat indices between 105 and 109 degrees are expected
over portions of South Texas Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay reports of heavy rainfall and
flooding. Use hashtags #ccspotter and #txwx

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-211100-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
610 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 3 PM for the offshore
gulf waters due to elevated seas of 7 to 8 feet.

Thunderstorms will produce gusty winds and rough and confused seas
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorm chances will diminish on Thursday, with no
thunderstorms Friday or Saturday expected. Thunderstorms will be
possible Sunday through Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Saturday and Sunday
over portions of the Middle Texas Gulf Waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1031 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE WOODSBORO          28.23N  97.31W
06/20/2018                   REFUGIO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ROAD NEAR CHOCOLATE SWAIL AND FM 136 NEAR
            WOODSBORO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800133

PZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1101 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CORPUS CHRISTI          27.71N  97.29W
06/20/2018  M13.80 INCH      NUECES             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800134

TC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1118 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 AM     FLOOD            7 WSW PALO ALTO         27.64N  97.91W
06/20/2018                   NUECES             TX   LOCAL OFFICIAL

            COUNTY ROAD 101 EAST OF FM 70 IS REPORTED TO BE
            COMPLETELY UNDER WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800135

TC

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