River Flood Warning 5, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
706 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 00Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Tonight - Wednesday...Mostly VFR, lower conditions in showers and
storms. Expecting another increase in heavy shower activity later
this evening over most of our terminals. Could be a few periods of
light rain/showers after 5AM CDT before ramping back up again
towards late morning, All-in-all we continue to have a mess on our
hands. Lower CIGs and VSBYs expected in the heaviest showers with
east-southeast winds around 10 knots. Medium confidence in timing.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight)...

Showers and thunderstorms have been moving across South Texas as
the center of circulation progresses inland. Strong low level
moisture convergence and an overly saturated atmosphere (2.51"
PWATs on the CRP 18Z sounding) has contributed to rainfall rates
ranging from 1-3"/hr. Jim Wells county has seen some of our
highest totals today with rainfall reports ranging from 7-11"
with isolated pockets of larger amounts possible. There have also
been reports of 5-8" across portions of South Texas. Reports of
roadways being flooded across the region were fairly common today.

Convective activity has waned a bit this afternoon as some dry air
wrapped around the center of the low. Expect activity to increase
again late tonight into early Wednesday morning, especially along
the Coastal Bend, Victoria Crossroads and over the Gulf waters as
H85 moisture transports ramps up over the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will begin to redevelop early tomorrow morning,
around 5Z or shortly after, per the HREF which has had a fairly
strong handle on the event.

Temps will be in the mid 70s across the Brush Country and Victoria
Crossroads to the low 80s along the coast. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will continue for the offshore waters overnight with
conditions slowly improving during the morning hours Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Tuesday)...

The tropical wave will continue to move west to southwest on
Wednesday with very deep moisture/PWAT around 2-2.4 inches
continuing across S TX. This will maintain high pops through Wed
with additional rainfall around 4 to 6 inches across the east and 2
to 3 inches across the Rio Grande Plains. The Flash Flood Watch will
remain in effect through Wed afternoon, but may need to be extended
to Wed night or Thu if heavier rainfall continues. The higher rain
chances will shift south and southwest by Thu/Thu night as drier air
aloft moves in from the NE as ridging begins to build back across S
TX. By Fri, limited residual moisture and a weak embedded short wave
may lead to iso convection across the VCT area Fri, otherwise quiet
weather and warmer temps is expected Fri/Sat. Another wave is
progged to approach the region by Sunday, bringing another chance of
convection.

Winds across the offshore waters will be borderline SCA Wed morning,
but should be below advisory conditions by noon. Minor tidal
overflow and dangerous rip currents are also expected to continue
into Wed morning, but as winds and seas diminish as well as swell
periods, so will the coastal threats.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  86  77  88  77  /  80  80  50  50  30
Victoria          76  84  75  89  76  /  80  80  50  50  20
Laredo            76  92  77  92  76  /  60  70  40  40  30
Alice             76  88  76  91  75  /  80  80  50  50  30
Rockport          79  84  79  87  79  /  80  80  50  50  20
Cotulla           75  91  76  94  75  /  50  50  30  20  20
Kingsville        78  88  77  90  77  /  80  80  50  50  30
Navy Corpus       80  85  79  86  80  /  80  80  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal
     Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal
     Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval...
     Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...
     Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg
     Islands...Live Oak...Nueces Islands...Victoria.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon For the
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday For the
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

GH/77...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
339 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-202045-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
339 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Wednesday afternoon for
the eastern portions of South Texas, including Duval, Jim Wells
and Live Oak County and all counties east.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and
tonight.

There is a high risk of rip currents through Wednesday afternoon
over gulf-facing beaches.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Wednesday afternoon
for gulf facing beaches due to the higher than normal period
swells combining with excessive rainfall near the coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
will persist through Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect
through Wednesday afternoon.  The Flash Flood Watch may be extended
beyond Wednesday afternoon, or farther west during this time.  The
areal coverage of thunderstorm activity will gradually decrease
Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week.

There is a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay reports of heavy rainfall and
flooding. Use hashtags #ccspotter and #txwx

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-202045-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
339 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue for the
offshore waters through Wednesday morning.

Thunderstorms today will produce heavy rainfall reducing
visibility, with thunderstorm chances decreasing in the afternoon
but returning overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
will persist through Wednesday. The areal coverage of thunderstorm
activity will gradually decrease Wednesday afternoon through the end
of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

TC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
902 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CORPUS CHRISTI          27.71N  97.29W
06/19/2018                   NUECES             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY ROADS FLOODED IN CORPUS CHRISTI. FLOODING REPORTED
            ON LEOPARD BETWEEN PALM AND PORT, AND AT LEOPARD AT HWY
            286. FLOODING REPORTED AT HWY 286 AND AGNES. FLOODING AT
            19TH/LIPAN INTERSECTION AND ON COMANCHE FROM 19TH TO
            COKE ST. ADDITIONAL FLOODING AT EVERHART/SOUTH PADRE
            ISLAND DRIVE INTERSECTION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800118

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
915 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CORPUS CHRISTI          27.71N  97.29W
06/19/2018                   NUECES             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ON-GOING HIGH WATER RESCUES IN CORPUS CHRISTI
            NEAR IH 37 NB AND CORN PRODUCTS. OCCUPANTS STANDING ON
            ROOF OF VEHICLE. ALSO, BROWNLEE AND ANTELOPE WITH WATER
            RESCUES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800119

HEAVENER