Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
649 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions can be expected throughout the
day as num showers move across S TX, especially along and east of
highway 281. LRD will likely see an increase in areal coverage
through the day as a sfc axis moves slowly westward. Could also
see IFR visibilities with the heavier rainfall and an occasional
thunderstorm through the afternoon, but will leave the mention of
TSRA out of the TAFs as it will be mainly showers. Models show
some improvement by late afternoon or evening to VFR levels, but
the chance of showers will remain in the forecast through tonight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 449 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Will make this short as possible. Another round of heavy rainfall
expected today, with the main activity in the morning and
gradually moving inland during the day. Average rainfall amounts
through tonight (not including rainfall before 12Z today) will be
1 to 3 inches over the previous FFA area, so extended it through
tonight as any additional rainfall will likely cause flooding.
Drier air will gradually begin to filter in Thursday and even more
on Friday, generally from the north as an upper level ridge
finally tries to come back into the area. Based on WPC's Day 2
excessive rainfall outlook, will only go with the FFA through
tonight as any flooding on Thursday likely to be more isolated and
farther south. A later shift could decide on whether it is needed
to extend for Thursday, and that will mainly be based on NWS
forecast QPF for Thursday. Plenty of clouds and wet grounds should
help to keep temperatures down today, with similar temperatures
for lows tonight. For Thursday, there may be more sunshine, but
wet grounds will help keep temperatures down again except out to
the west where much less rainfall has been observed. Drier air
Friday and Saturday with upper ridge is expected to come in, but
rain begins to return by early next week as there is a hint of
another upper level low approaching the area. For temperatures,
generally went with a blend of short-range consensus and
Supreblend for high temperatures today and Thursday, with close to
Superblend and Bias-consensus guidance for lows through Friday
morning. After that, went with Superblend for highs (but did trim
temperatures a degree or two east of Highway 281 due to the
saturated soils), with a blend of Superblend and WPCGuide for
minimum temperatures.

MARINE...

Based on forecast wave heights, will maintain the SCA for the
offshore waters, with SCEC for the nearshore waters. SCA until 3
PM based on wave heights, with SE winds 15 to 20 knots. Conditions
should gradually improve, but still will have scattered to
numerous (if not widespread) convection today and tonight,
beginning (hopefully) to diminish in areal coverage and strength
Thursday through the rest of the week. Near SCA conditions at
times over the waters, as low pressure over West Texas deepens and
high pressure remains in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

COASTAL FLOODING...

Astronomical tide levels have come down over the last couple of
days, but levels are running one foot or more above predicted
levels at last look. Given the fact that there is still more
rainfall to come and some areas have received 5 to 10 inches of
rain, will keep the Coastal Flood Advisory going as there is
likely a lot of standing water and once high tide is approached
it could get close again (feeling is that it may not be would
rather be safe than sorry). Also, a borderline rip current risk
between moderate and high. Will again err on the side of caution
and extend both of these hazards through this evening. Additional
heavy rainfall would strand motorists away from beach access roads
so at this time do not want people to believe conditions are
improving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  76  87  77  91  /  90  70  70  30  20
Victoria          85  75  90  75  93  /  90  50  50  20  20
Laredo            91  77  91  77 101  /  70  40  40  30  10
Alice             86  75  88  75  94  /  80  60  70  30  20
Rockport          85  78  86  79  90  /  90  70  60  20  20
Cotulla           90  76  93  76 101  /  60  30  20  20  10
Kingsville        85  77  88  77  94  /  90  70  70  30  20
Navy Corpus       84  79  86  80  89  /  90  70  70  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight For the following zones:
     Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...
     Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...
     Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval...Goliad...
     Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland
     Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg
     Islands...Live Oak...Nueces Islands...Victoria.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg
     Islands...Nueces Islands.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight For the
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

TE/81...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
610 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-211100-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
610 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tonight for the following
zone locations: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal
Aransas... Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...
Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval...Goliad... Inland
Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland
San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg Islands...Live Oak...Nueces
Islands...Victoria. Additional 1 to 3 inches, with isolated
amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible through tonight,
especially in thunderstorms.

There is a High Rip Current Risk until midnight for the following
zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...
Nueces Islands.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until midnight CDT for the
following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Kleberg
Islands...Nueces Islands

Scattered thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 3 or more
inches per hour at time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms Thursday will produce isolated
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents Thursday along gulf-
facing beaches.

Afternoon heat indices between 105 and 109 degrees are expected
over portions of South Texas Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay reports of heavy rainfall and
flooding. Use hashtags #ccspotter and #txwx

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-211100-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
610 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 3 PM for the offshore
gulf waters due to elevated seas of 7 to 8 feet.

Thunderstorms will produce gusty winds and rough and confused seas
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorm chances will diminish on Thursday, with no
thunderstorms Friday or Saturday expected. Thunderstorms will be
possible Sunday through Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Saturday and Sunday
over portions of the Middle Texas Gulf Waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
324 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ORANGE GROVE            27.96N  97.94W
06/20/2018                   JIM WELLS          TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY ROADS FLOODED AND CLOSED AROUND ORANGE GROVE

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800123

GEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
609 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CORPUS CHRISTI          27.71N  97.29W
06/20/2018                   NUECES             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER SEVERAL ROADWAYS IN THE CITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800124

PZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
728 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKPORT                28.04N  97.05W
06/20/2018                   ARANSAS            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MARKET STREET TO KEY ALLEGRO CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER
            ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800125

PZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
737 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W CORPUS CHRISTI      27.71N  97.33W
06/20/2018  M11.87 INCH      NUECES             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL 11.87". 24 HOUR TOTAL 9.54"

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800126

PZ