Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
333 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward into the
Gulf of Mexico through today. A hot westerly flow will continue
north of this ridge locally and high temperatures will be in
the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. A cold front will push into
the forecast area tonight and Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. Tuesday should be the coolest day in the past
week or so due mainly to increased cloud cover. A more
climatological pattern unfolds for the remainder of the period
with increasing moisture and ridging into the Southeast. This
pattern supports scattered diurnal thunderstorms and above
normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The main concern will be the possibility of severe thunderstorms
and localized flooding.

A surface trough will be in the forecast area today ahead of the
approaching cold front. The front is forecast to sink southward
and into the area tonight. Despite strong heating and
convergence into the surface trough, upper ridging will likely
limit thunderstorm coverage this afternoon, except there may be
considerable coverage in the north section late, with moisture
pooling ahead of the cold front plus an approaching mid-level
shortwave trough. The greatest coverage may be this evening
closer to the maximum of diurnal instability and ahead of a mid-
level shortwave trough and in an area of convergence near the
front. There will be a continued threat of thunderstorms
overnight with the front and upper feature in the area. The NAM
and GFS depict strong instability with surface- based LI values
-8 to -10. Forecast soundings indicate considerable CAPE in the
hail growth region. Damaging wind and hail will be possible with
the thunderstorms. Precipitable water is forecast to be around
2 inches. High rainfall rates and possible training near the
front support a possibility of localized flooding. We followed a
guidance for the temperature forecast. Expect peak heat index
values about 105 and just below the heat advisory criteria of
110 today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper trough will slowly move eastward from the Great Lakes into
New England during this time period.  Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday through Wednesday ahead
of this trough, while a drying trend starts on Thursday as a front
pushes offshore.  Temperatures will be near normal Tuesday and
Wednesday and then above normal on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure aloft builds over the Mid Atlantic States this
weekend.  This results in an onshore flow across the region which
will likely enhance the seabreeze front. Temperatures will be above
normal with the H5 heights.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions should persist through the day, until showers
and thunderstorms bring restrictions this evening.

A surface trough will be in the forecast area today ahead of
the approaching cold front. The front is forecast to sink
southward and into the area tonight. Despite strong heating and
convergence into the surface trough, upper ridging will likely
limit thunderstorm coverage during much of the afternoon. The
hi-res models do show scattered convection developing between
20Z and 23Z, but confidence is too low to include in the
terminal forecasts at this time.

The greatest coverage may be this evening closer to the maximum
of diurnal instability and ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough and in an area of convergence near the front. Kept
thunderstorms in the terminal forecasts during the 00z to 04z
time frame. There will be a continued threat of thunderstorms
overnight with the front and upper feature in the area. Damaging
wind and hail will be possible with the thunderstorms.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day in
early morning fog plus mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
217 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-260630-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
217 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail will be possible this
afternoon and tonight. The threat will be greatest this evening.
There will also be a possibility of very heavy rain leading to
localized flooding this afternoon and especially tonight.

It will be hot today with heat index values peaking near 105.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1016 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 E GASTON             33.79N 80.92W
06/24/2018                   CALHOUN            SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS DOWN AND MAJOR DAMAGE TO AN
            ALUMINUM PUMP HOUSE AT 1273 OLD SWAMP ROAD
            IN SANDY RUN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMDEN                  34.25N 80.61W
06/24/2018                   KERSHAW            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES IN AND
            AROUND CAMDEN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1245 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W NORWAY              33.45N 81.15W
06/24/2018                   ORANGEBURG         SC   PUBLIC

            PECAN TREES DOWN AND METAL SIDING RIPPED
            FROM HOME.

&&

RC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
337 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

SCZ036>038-252015-
Orangeburg SC-Calhoun SC-Clarendon SC-
337 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of east central
Orangeburg...east central Calhoun and southwestern Clarendon Counties
Until 415 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Marion Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 336 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Summerton, or 16 miles southwest of Manning,
moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Manning, Summerton, Elloree, Santee, Eutawville and Vance.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Marion should move to shore and seek shelter. Strong,
erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 94 and 117.

LAT...LON 3348 8015 3347 8014 3345 8015 3346 8016
      3345 8017 3345 8020 3344 8020 3345 8022
      3340 8022 3338 8024 3343 8052 3358 8059
      3365 8055 3371 8016 3349 8013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 272DEG 15KT 3352 8042

LCV