Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
654 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push into the forecast area tonight and
Tuesday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday should be
the coolest day in the past week or so due mainly to increased
cloud cover. A more climatological pattern unfolds for the
remainder of the period with increasing moisture and ridging
into the Southeast. This pattern supports scattered diurnal
thunderstorms and above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The main concern will be the possibility of severe thunderstorms
and localized flooding.

Mesoanalysis indicated weak to moderate instability across the
area with DCAPE values up to 1400 J/kg. The Storm Prediction
Center has the northern half of SC under a severe thunderstorm
watch until 10 pm. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
threats.

Widespread convection across the Pee Dee region will move off
the coast early this evening. Next wave of convection
approaching from the west will affect the area through around
Midnight. HRRR has widespread showers and thunderstorms east of
the forecast area by 07Z. There will still be a chance of
showers during the early morning hours with the cold front in
the area. Also, both the HRRR and RAP showed short wave energy
crossing the area...moving east of the Midlands around 08Z.
Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper trough will slowly move eastward from the Great Lakes into
New England during this time period.  Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday through Wednesday ahead
of this trough, while a drying trend starts on Thursday as a front
pushes offshore.  Temperatures will be near normal Tuesday and
Wednesday and then above normal on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure aloft builds over the Mid Atlantic States this
weekend.  This results in an onshore flow across the region which
will likely enhance the seabreeze front. Temperatures will be above
normal with the H5 heights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will bring restrictions this evening.

A surface trough will be in the forecast area today ahead of
the approaching cold front. The front is forecast to sink
southward and into the area tonight. Despite strong heating and
convergence into the surface trough, upper ridging will likely
limit thunderstorm coverage during much of the afternoon. The
hi-res models do show scattered convection developing between
20Z and 23Z, but confidence is too low to include in the
terminal forecasts at this time.

The greatest coverage may be this evening closer to the maximum
of diurnal instability and ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough and in an area of convergence near the front. Kept
thunderstorms in the terminal forecasts during the 00z to 04z
time frame. There will be a continued threat of thunderstorms
overnight with the front and upper feature in the area. Damaging
wind and hail will be possible with the thunderstorms.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day in
early morning fog plus mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
217 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-260630-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
217 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail will be possible this
afternoon and tonight. The threat will be greatest this evening.
There will also be a possibility of very heavy rain leading to
localized flooding this afternoon and especially tonight.

It will be hot today with heat index values peaking near 105.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
541 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW PATRICK            34.56N 80.06W
06/25/2018                   CHESTERFIELD       SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A TREE DOWN JUST
            SOUTH OF PATRICK ALONG HIGHWAY 1.

&&

LCV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
650 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

SCZ016-252315-
Chesterfield SC-
650 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northeastern
Chesterfield County Until 715 PM EDT....

At 650 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Chesterfield, or 7 miles northwest of
Cheraw, moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Cheraw, Chesterfield and McFarlan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio and
television stations for additional information and possible warnings
from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes suddenly, sometimes
with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly changing weather
conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe weather is observed
or a warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 7989 3470 8014 3481 8005 3481 7994
      3476 7993 3474 7989 3468 7986 3466 7983
      3466 7981 3465 7980 3464 7980 3462 7979
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 304DEG 14KT 3474 8001

fwa

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
719 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE LINCOLNTON         33.82N 82.45W
06/25/2018  E60 MPH          LINCOLN            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO BE
            AT LEAST 60 MPH NEAR LINCOLNTON.

&&

LCV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
721 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             3 NNW SOUTH CONGAREE    33.94N 81.16W
06/25/2018  E0.88 INCH       LEXINGTON          SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL 3 MILES WEST OF
            THE COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT.

&&

LCV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
730 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LYNCHBURG               34.06N 80.07W
06/25/2018                   LEE                SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES DOWN AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 341 AND HIGHWAY 76
            NEAR LYNCHBURG.

&&

LCV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
734 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             3 SSW OAK GROVE         33.94N 81.17W
06/25/2018  E1.00 INCH       LEXINGTON          SC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG EMANUEL
            CHURCH ROAD JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT.

&&

LCV