Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

562 
WWUS41 KBUF 020225
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

NYZ006-021030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180102T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.180102T1200Z-180103T0600Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO
1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road
  conditions at times. In addition, areas of poor visibility are 
  expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are 
  expected, mainly across the Tug Hill.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of significant blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0001.180102T0300Z-180102T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1400Z-180103T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO
1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Snow and blowing snow
  expected. Plan on slippery road conditions at times. In
  addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Expect wind
  chills to range from 20 below zero to 25 below zero. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected, mainly across the
  Tug Hill.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, 10 PM this evening to 10 
  AM Tuesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, 9 AM Tuesday to 1 
  AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite
  in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Winds gusting as
  high as 40 mph will cause areas of significant blowing and 
  drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1300Z-180103T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor visibilities
  and slick roadways to create difficult travel conditions at
  times. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of
  significant blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Niagara Frontier.

* WHEN...8 AM to 7 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
  areas of significant blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1500Z-180103T0000Z/
Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Geneseo and Canandaigua
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor visibilities
  and slick roadways to create difficult travel conditions at
  times. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Livingston and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...10 AM to 7 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Blowing snow expected. Plan
  on slippery road conditions. In addition, areas of poor
  visibility are expected. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and
  drifting snow Tuesday.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM Tuesday. Lake effect snow tonight, blowing
  snow on Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Blowing snow expected. Plan
  on slippery road conditions. In addition, areas of poor
  visibility are expected. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows, mainly
  along and north of Route 104. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph 
  will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow Tuesday. 

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
  areas of significant blowing and drifting snow on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

005 
WWUS41 KBUF 020841
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
341 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

NYZ007-008-021645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180102T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1400Z-180103T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
341 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Snow and blowing snow
  expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during
  the evening commute. Expect wind chills to range from 20 below 
  zero to 30 below zero. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches
  are expected.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, now to 10 AM this morning. 
  For the Winter Weather Advisory, 9 AM today to 1 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Winds gusting as 
  high as 45 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-021645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1300Z-180103T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
341 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor 
  visibilities and slick roadways to create difficult travel 
  conditions at times. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Niagara Frontier.

* WHEN...8 AM to 7 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of significant blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-021645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1500Z-180103T0000Z/
Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Geneseo and Canandaigua
341 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor visibilities
  and slick roadways to create difficult travel conditions at
  times. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Livingston and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...10 AM to 7 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-021645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.180102T1200Z-180103T0600Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
341 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS
MORNING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions, including during the morning commute. Total 
  snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...7 AM today to 1 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-021645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
341 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected.
  Additional snow accumulations of an inch or less are expected in
  the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph
  will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow today.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-021645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
341 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected.
  Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 inches are expected in
  the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph
  will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow today.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Thomas

820 
WWUS41 KBUF 021508
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1008 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

NYZ007-008-022315-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180102T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180103T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1008 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including during the evening commute. Tree branches
  could fall as well. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 9 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-022315-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
1008 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions, including during the evening commute. In addition, 
  areas of poor visibility are expected. Tree branches could 
  fall as well. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches 
  are expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara Frontier.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-022315-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Geneseo and Canandaigua
1008 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor 
  visibilities and slick roadways to create difficult travel 
  conditions at times. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Livingston and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-022315-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
1008 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor 
  visibilities and slick roadways to create difficult travel 
  conditions at times. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-022315-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
1008 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor 
  visibilities and slick roadways to create difficult travel 
  conditions at times. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-022315-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0600Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
1008 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions, including during the evening commute. Additional 
  snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches are expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1247 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue through tonight southeast of the
lakes, and through Tuesday east of Lake Ontario. It will turn quite
windy on Tuesday, with areas of blowing snow developing. A cold
front will bring a general light snow to the region Wednesday night,
with lake effect snow showers Thursday through Saturday southeast of
the lakes. It will turn frigid again late this week, with
dangerously cold wind chills likely Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar imagery early this afternoon showing a few areas of light to
moderate lake effect snow east of Lake Erie, with a more impressive
band lurking mainly offshore over the middle of Lake Ontario.

For this afternoon increasing west winds becoming northwest will
bring an upstream connection to the Lake Erie snowbands, with
moderate snowfall across the western So. Tier. Though extreme lake
instability with 850 hPa temperatures -22 to -24C, the shorter fetch
over the lake, and though improved, still shallow nature of the snow
growth zone will limit snow totals...to around 2 to 4 inches today,
and another 2 to 3 inches tonight. Will maintain the winter weather
advisory for lake effect snow here.

Over Lake Ontario, the passing upper level shortwave will likely
create a surface trough and meso low over Lake Ontario. Through the
day today lake effect snow will build over the lake, this on a
convergent wind from the colder land mass to over the warmer lakes.
By this afternoon, westerly winds will carry this snow towards the
southeast shoreline of Lake Ontario, bringing moderate to heavy lake
snows towards Oswego County. While brief, snowfall rates of 2 to 3
inches per hour will bring warning criteria snowfall...and a lake
effect snow warning will be issued. As the surface low pushes inland
over the Adirondacks, a surface trough followed by a colder airmass
will drop southward across Lake Ontario, pushing the lake snows
towards the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario. While not as
intense, several inches of snow will be possible from near Webster
and the NE corner of Monroe County and towards northern Cayuga
County this evening. Will convert the winter storm watch to lake
effect snow advisories here...with an additional 3 to 5 inches of
snow falling tonight.

With the passage of the surface trough, wind shear will increase
through the night and lake effect snow will become weaker and at
times disorganized. Wind shear will be a bit greater near Lake
Ontario. By late tonight winds will become more west to
southwesterly. This will begin to push the lake snows northward,
with snows entering southern Erie county late tonight, while also
increasing the organization and strength of lake snows southeast of
Lake Ontario. Will carry the lake effect snow warning into
Tuesday early morning to account for this second surge of lake
effect snow...though this second surge will not be as strong as
the evening snows.

As mentioned it will remain cold today and tonight. The southwest
winds tonight will bring relatively not as cold air northward
tonight...and this should leave many areas on the positive side of
zero south of Lake Ontario, while east of Lake Ontario lows will
still bottom out zero to ten below for most areas. These not as
harsh air temperatures should prevent any advisory level wind chills
(save for portions of the interior North Country) and plan on no
additional wind chill headlines with this morning's forecast
package.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday a shortwave and weak surface low will pass to our north.
The pressure gradient between this weak system and strong high
pressure across the Mississippi Valley will result in a tightening
pressure gradient. Consensus 925mb winds are forecast to increase to
40 to 45 kts, and these are southwesterly and fairly well aligned
with surface winds. This should help winds aloft mix to the surface
despite the 'warm' air advection. Expect gusts to approach wind
advisory criteria across the lake plains east of the lakes with
gusts up to 45 mph. Any lake effect snow off Lake Erie will be
minimal at this point, however with lots of fluffy snow already on
the ground across Western New York this will result in areas of
blowing snow during the day on Tuesday.

A bit more moisture and deeper equilibrium levels will support some
lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario on Tuesday. This will be aided
by upsloping along the west-face of the Tug Hill and Adirondacks.
Snowfall rates should be modest, but when combined with gusty west
to southwest winds there should be significant areas of blowing snow
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Additional snow accumulation may fall
just shy of advisory criteria, but the impact from the blowing snow
may eventually support an advisory for both hazards.

Low pressure will approach the region from the northern Great Lakes
Wednesday. Winds will shift to the SSW ahead of this system and push
any lingering lake enhanced snow into Canada. Wednesday should be
mainly dry, with mostly sunny skies in the morning giving way to
increasing clouds during the afternoon with the approach of this
system. Temperatures will be warmer, but still well below normal
with highs in the upper teens to lower 20s.

This low will then track to near Lake Ontario by late Wednesday
night. Increasing moisture from this low and an associated shortwave
will cause lake effect snow to re-develop Wednesday night. Lake
effect snow will start northeast of the lakes Wednesday evening then
shift southward late in the night. The transient nature of the bands
should limit snow amounts, but some accumulation (1 to 3 inches) is
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There will be no let up in the very cold pattern through next
weekend as a longwave trough remains well established over central
and eastern North America. In fact, the coldest airmass yet will
likely be coming at the end of the week. A long stretch of this
magnitude of cold is not common, and this one is exceptionally early
in the season. When patterns such as this occur, it is more
typically in late January through February.

Looking at the details, the 00/12Z GFS, ECMWF, GEM all remain
consistent in developing an intense Nor'Easter Thursday and Thursday
night. This system will stay well out to sea and too far east to
have any direct influence on our region, but it will phase with a
northern stream trough and help pull down the coldest airmass of
this frigid stretch for Thursday night through Friday night. Both
the GFS and ECMWF bottom out 850mb temps at around -30C during this
period. According to the SPC sounding climatology website, the
coldest 850mb temp ever sampled on a KBUF sounding is -32.3C since
balloon launches began in 1948. Highs on Friday may struggle to
reach zero across much of Western NY, with the North Country staying
well below zero. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will be below
zero areawide, with lows across the North Country colder than -20F.
Winds will not be calm by any means, with a brisk northwest flow on
the western periphery of the strong Nor'Easter producing wind chills
far lower than we have seen so far in this cold pattern.

As far as snow chances go, northwest flow on the western periphery
of the coastal low will produce a spray of lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes across much of the region from Thursday
through Saturday, although the short fetch, very dry airmass, and
lack of dendritic crystal growth will likely keep accumulations on
the light side.

Model guidance begins to diverge on Sunday, with the ECMWF slower to
move the exceptional cold out of the region, while the GFS and
Canadian GEM start a moderating trend. It does appear that the
pattern will relax at least temporarily next week with temperatures
trending closer to average for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue east and southeast of the lakes this
afternoon and tonight with areas of IFR and lower conditions. Off
Lake Erie, this will mainly impact the western Southern Tier
including KJHW. Off Lake Ontario, initially the lake snow will
develop across Oswego County late this afternoon, then move onshore
along much of the south shore of the lake this evening. This may
bring a few hours of IFR to KROC. Overnight into Tuesday morning the
lake effect snow will then focus east of KROC again.

During the day Tuesday, winds become west to southwest. This will
carry the Lake Ontario lake effect snow into the Tug Hill region
with local IFR. The northern edge of this may impact KART as well.
Off Lake Erie, any lake snow that remains should be light and
disorganized with just scattered light snow showers near KBUF.
Southwest winds will become quite gusty on Tuesday, producing areas
of blowing snow and reduced surface visibility. Gusts may reach 40
mph on the lake plains.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday night...Areas of IFR in snow showers.
Thursday through Saturday...Areas of IFR in lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds will continue small craft conditions on the Eastern
Great Lakes today and through much of the week. Strongest winds will
likely be Tuesday and Tuesday night as a very strong surface high
pressure advances from the Plains to the Ohio Valley. This
strengthening pressure gradient will increase winds to near low end
gale force, for which a gale watch will be issued for Lake Ontario.
Winds may remain just below gale force on Lake Erie, and the western
shoreline of Lake Ontario.

Later in the week another very cold airmass will drop across the
Eastern Great Lakes region. This airmass may be the coldest
yet...and with winds a bit stronger there will be heightened chances
for freezing spray.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low maximums and record low temperatures will be
challenged today as arctic air continues to flow across the
Eastern Great Lakes region. Below are records for January 1st.

MONDAY/NEW YEARS DAY

Buffalo      11(1918)    0 (1970)
Rochester    10(1918)   -8 (1970)
Watertown    14(1989)  -11 (1989)

Period Records: Buffalo (1871-Present), Rochester (1871-Present) and
Watertown (1949-Present)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KTYX WSR-88D radar at Montague, NY has suffered a motor
failure. A part is enroute to the radar and, due to the
holiday, service will likely not be restored until Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ006.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ003>005.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST
         Wednesday for LEZ020.
         Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
         night for LOZ044-045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042-
         043.
         Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
         Tuesday for LOZ045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...HSK/THOMAS
EQUIPMENT...CHURCH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
927 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

NYZ001-002-010-011-021430-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
927 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Winds gusting to 45 mph on Tuesday will result in areas of blowing
snow. This may impact travel.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 25 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-021430-
Monroe-
927 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Winds gusting to 45 mph on Tuesday will result in areas of blowing
snow. This may impact travel.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 25 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012>014-021-085-021430-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-Southern Erie-
927 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 25 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-021430-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
927 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 25 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-020-021430-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
927 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 25 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-021430-
Jefferson-Lewis-
927 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Another wind chill advisory may be needed for tonight also.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Accumulating snow is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. This
combined with winds gusting to 40 mph will result in areas of
blowing
snow and difficult travel conditions.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 40 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-021430-
Oswego-
927 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

More accumulating snow is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. This
combined with winds gusting to 40 mph will result in areas of
blowing
snow and difficult travel conditions.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 25 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-043-SLZ022-024-021430-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
927 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-062>065-021430-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
927 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf