Lake Effect Snow Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

619 
WWUS41 KBUF 011424
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
924 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

NYZ007-008-011530-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180101T1500Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
924 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WIND CHILL WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Subzero wind chills will still remain across the region today. 

$$

NYZ006-012230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-180101T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.180101T1800Z-180102T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
924 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible, including during the evening commute. 
  Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected in the 
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...1 PM today to 7 AM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4351 7593 4357 7606 4363 7620 4352 7623 
        4352 7644 4343 7661 4336 7662 4332 7639 4335 7602 
        4338 7595 
TIME Y18M01D01T1900Z-Y18M01D02T0000Z
COORD...4338 7611 4346 7623 4348 7648 4343 7661 
        4325 7661 4322 7650 4320 7629 4323 7613 4328 7619 
        4329 7609 
TIME Y18M01D02T0000Z-Y18M01D02T0600Z
COORD...4332 7642 4335 7647 4336 7662 4332 7659 
        4325 7661 4327 7652 4325 7652 4323 7637 4325 7637 
        4328 7642 
TIME Y18M01D02T0600Z-Y18M01D02T1200Z

$$

NYZ019-020-012230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-180101T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180102T0900Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
924 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are 
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-012230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-180101T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.180101T1800Z-180102T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
924 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions, including during the evening commute. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...1 PM today to 7 AM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>014-021-085-011530-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-180101T1500Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Wellsville, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
924 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Subzero wind chills will still remain across the region today. 

$$

Thomas

191 
WWUS41 KBUF 011944
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
244 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

NYZ006-020345-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.180102T1200Z-180103T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180102T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
244 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Snow and blowing snow
  expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions at times. Snow
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected in the most
  persistent lake snows late this afternoon and tonight. Snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected Tuesday and Tuesday 
  night, mainly across the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, until 7 AM Tuesday. 
  For the Winter Weather Advisory, 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM 
  Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered 
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while 
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4351 7593 4357 7606 4363 7620 4352 7623 
        4352 7644 4343 7661 4336 7662 4332 7639 4335 7602 
        4338 7595 
TIME Y18M01D01T1900Z-Y18M01D02T0000Z
COORD...4338 7611 4346 7623 4348 7648 4343 7661 
        4325 7661 4322 7650 4320 7629 4323 7613 4328 7619 
        4329 7609 
TIME Y18M01D02T0000Z-Y18M01D02T0600Z
COORD...4332 7642 4335 7647 4336 7662 4332 7659 
        4325 7661 4327 7652 4325 7652 4323 7637 4325 7637 
        4328 7642 
TIME Y18M01D02T0600Z-Y18M01D02T1200Z

$$

NYZ007-008-020345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.Y.0001.180102T0300Z-180102T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1400Z-180103T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
244 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Snow and blowing snow
  expected. Plan on slippery road conditions and poor visibility
  at times. Expect wind chills to range from 20 below zero to 25
  below zero. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are 
  expected, mainly across the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, 10 PM this evening to 10 
  AM Tuesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, 9 AM Tuesday to 1 
  AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Winds gusting as 
  high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-020345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1300Z-180103T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
244 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor visibilities
  and slick roadways to create difficult travel conditions at
  times. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of 
  significant blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Niagara Frontier.

* WHEN...8 AM to 7 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
  areas of significant blowing and drifting snow and difficult
  travel in open areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-020345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1500Z-180103T0000Z/
Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Geneseo and Canandaigua
244 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor 
  visibilities and slick roadways to create difficult travel 
  conditions at times. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Livingston and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...10 AM to 7 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow and difficult travel at times
  in open areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-020345-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
244 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Blowing snow expected. Plan
  on slippery road conditions at times. In addition, areas of poor
  visibility are expected. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Through 7 PM Tuesday. Lake effect snow through late 
  tonight. Blowing and drifting snow on Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow and difficult travel in open
  areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-020345-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
244 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Blowing snow expected. Plan on
  difficult travel conditions at times. Snow accumulations of 4 to
  6 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows, mainly
  along and north of Route 104. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph 
  will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. 

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM Tuesday. Lake effect snow tonight and early
  Tuesday. Blowing and drifting snow late morning through early
  evening Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

562 
WWUS41 KBUF 020225
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

NYZ006-021030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180102T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.180102T1200Z-180103T0600Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO
1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road
  conditions at times. In addition, areas of poor visibility are 
  expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are 
  expected, mainly across the Tug Hill.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of significant blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0001.180102T0300Z-180102T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1400Z-180103T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO
1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Snow and blowing snow
  expected. Plan on slippery road conditions at times. In
  addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Expect wind
  chills to range from 20 below zero to 25 below zero. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected, mainly across the
  Tug Hill.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, 10 PM this evening to 10 
  AM Tuesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, 9 AM Tuesday to 1 
  AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite
  in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Winds gusting as
  high as 40 mph will cause areas of significant blowing and 
  drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1300Z-180103T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor visibilities
  and slick roadways to create difficult travel conditions at
  times. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of
  significant blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Niagara Frontier.

* WHEN...8 AM to 7 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
  areas of significant blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0001.180102T1500Z-180103T0000Z/
Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Geneseo and Canandaigua
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor visibilities
  and slick roadways to create difficult travel conditions at
  times. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Livingston and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...10 AM to 7 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Blowing snow expected. Plan
  on slippery road conditions. In addition, areas of poor
  visibility are expected. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and
  drifting snow Tuesday.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM Tuesday. Lake effect snow tonight, blowing
  snow on Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0000Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
925 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Blowing snow expected. Plan
  on slippery road conditions. In addition, areas of poor
  visibility are expected. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows, mainly
  along and north of Route 104. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph 
  will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow Tuesday. 

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
  areas of significant blowing and drifting snow on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Periods of blowing snow will result in snow covered roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1246 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Bitterly cold temperatures will remain across the Great Lakes region
this week...with northwest winds also bringing dangerously cold wind
chills through New Year's Day. Meanwhile, light lake effect snows
with minor accumulations will persist south of the lakes overnight,
before the lake snows intensify some across areas southeast of the
lakes for Monday through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
For this time period, a northwesterly flow of bitterly cold air (850
mb temps of -20 to -25C) will continue across our region, between
low pressure over Atlantic Canada and a strong Canadian High
pressure over the Northern Plains. As a result...very cold to near
dangerous wind chills remain the main concern for tonight through
early Monday morning...with apparent temperatures lowering to -15 to
-20F south of Lake Ontario...and to -20 to -35F across the North
Country. Meanwhile actual air temperatures will likely dip below
zero areawide tonight...with the colder areas east of Lake Ontario
possibly plunging to -20F and colder. Highs on Monday will then run
slightly warmer than today with some subtle warm advection ahead of
an approaching shortwave, resulting in highs in the single digits to
the teens across the lake plains.

Aside from the bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills, nuisance-
type lake effect snow continues south of Lake Ontario this evening,
with fair dry and very shallow dendritic growth layer in the cold
airmass limiting its potential. This activity will produce an
additional inch or so of snow before weakening and shrinking up back
over the lake from west to east overnight, as the supporting
northwesterly low level flow weakens and begins to turn more
westerly.

A potent, quick-moving shortwave embedded in the mean trough over
the northeast CONUS will track from northern Ontario province to
over eastern Lake Ontario by Monday evening. The lowering heights
aloft and corresponding advection of colder mid-level air over the
lower Great Lakes will raise the capping inversion height to around
10kft over Lake Erie late tonight and Monday, and up to 15kft over
Lake Ontario where the vorticity max will track directly over. The
lift and moisture accompanying the trough passage will intensify
lake effect snows off of both Lakes Erie and Ontario.

The shorter fetch with the west-northwesterly flow off Lake Erie and
the expected migratory nature of the snow bands will likely keep
overall snow accumulations more in the 4 to 8 inch range across
Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties from very late tonight through
late Monday night...for which a Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued. Further north across Southern Erie and Wyoming counties the
west-northwest fetch will likely help to keep snow totals
substantially lower...and probably below advisory criteria.

As for Lake Ontario, expect a lake shore hugging band along the
Wayne, Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties shoreline Monday
afternoon to be pushed inland and intensify with the passage of the
vorticity max aloft. This should result in a burst of fairly intense
snowfall along the Lake Ontario shoreline for late Monday afternoon,
and Monday evening. Behind the wave passage, the northwesterly flow
will allow slowly-weakening-with-time, multibanded plumes of lake
effect snow bring some additional accumulations through Monday
night. Presently 7 to 9 inches of snowfall along the immediate Lake
Ontario shoreline seems quite possible, with amounts decreasing
inland away from the lake. Have accordingly issued a winter storm
watch for lake effect snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will be crossing the Northeast Monday night while
PVA crosses eastern Lake Ontario. Northwest flow behind a mesolow
over Lake Ontario will move the ongoing lake effect band onshore.
Lift will be enhanced by the shortwave trough and lake snows will
intensify from Monroe to Oswego counties Tuesday evening. Snowfall
rates could exceed an inch per hour during this time Monday evening.
Northwest flow will also cause a connection to Lake Huron to
intensify lake snow south of Lake Erie Monday evening. Weaker large
scale ascent is expected across Lake Erie with low inversion heights
expected Monday evening. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for
Monroe to Oswego counties through Monday night. Snowfall amounts of
5-9 inches are possible with the higher amounts near the lake shore
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Snowfall amounts of 3-6
inches are possible downwind of Lake Erie across Chautauqua and
Cattaraugus counties.

Lake snows will taper off Tuesday morning before the next shortwave
trough swings across Quebec and northern New England by Tuesday
afternoon. A weak surface low will cross north of Lake Ontario
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Winds will back to the
southwest in response to the passing low. A reprieve from the frigid
air is expected Tuesday with temperatures in the L20s by Tue
afternoon. A tight pressure gradient will produce breezy conditions
across the region with the higher winds near the lake shore. Light
snow showers are possible across the Niagara Frontier and Tug Hill
Plateau region into Wednesday morning. Light accumulations are
possible during this time.

Low pressure will approach the region from the northern Great Lakes
Wednesday. Clouds will increase from west to east. Warm air
advection will cause stable conditions over the lakes and limit lake
effect activity with forecast Lake Induced CAPE and equilibrium
levels dropping significantly by Wednesday morning. Lake effect will
re-intensify Wednesday night as a cold front approaches.
Accumulating snow is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There will be no let up in the very cold pattern through next
weekend as a longwave trough remains well established over central
and eastern North America. In fact, the coldest airmass yet will
likely be coming at the end of the week. A long stretch of this
magnitude of cold is not common, and this one is exceptionally early
in the season. When patterns such as this occur, it is more
typically in late January through February.

Looking at the details, the 12Z GFS, ECMWF, GEM all remain
consistent in developing an intense Nor'Easter Thursday and Thursday
night. This system will stay well out to sea and too far east to
have any direct influence on our region, but it will phase with a
northern stream trough and help pull down the coldest airmass of this
frigid stretch for Thursday night through Friday night. Both the GFS
and ECMWF bottom out 850mb temps at around -30C during this period.
According to the SPC sounding climatology website, the coldest 850mb
temp ever sampled on a KBUF sounding is -32.3C since balloon
launches began in 1948. Highs on Friday may struggle to reach zero
across much of Western NY, with the North Country staying well below
zero. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will be below zero
areawide, with lows across the North Country colder than -20F. Winds
will not be calm by any means, with a brisk northwest flow on the
western periphery of the strong Nor'Easter producing wind chills far
lower than we have seen so far in this cold pattern.

As far as snow chances go, northwest flow on the western periphery
of the coastal low will produce a spray of lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes across much of the region from Thursday
through Saturday, although the short fetch, very dry airmass, and
lack of dendritic crystal growth will likely keep accumulations on
the light side.

Model guidance begins to diverge on Sunday, with the ECMWF slower to
move the exceptional cold out of the region, while the GFS and
Canadian GEM start a moderating trend. It does appear that the
pattern will relax at least temporarily next week with temperatures
trending closer to average for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS lingering lake effect snow south and southeast of
the lakes continues to bring MVFR, and brief IFR flight conditions.
While snows diminish over Lake Ontario, they will increase off Lake
Erie through the night. Northwest winds may bring some lake effect
snow across the So. Tier, including KJHW in the predawn hours...and
then through the day today.

Later today a band of lake effect snow will form over Lake Ontario.
While this snow will largely remain over the lake, it will near the
SE shoreline late this afternoon and then through the overnight
hours. A cold front will drop across Lake Ontario tonight, and this
will shove the snows southward...impacting the KROC airfield with
likely IFR flight conditions. Enough of a northwest wind today and
tonight will likely keep lake effect snow south of KART.

Scattered lake effect snow showers will be near KIAG/KBUF though the
bulk of the time should be VFR.

Lake effect snow may nudge northward late tonight as winds become
more westerly.

Outlook...

Tuesday...A band of lake effect snow diminishing as winds
back...possibly bringing brief IFR flight conditions to KBUF/KART.
Otherwise MVFR/VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Snow showers likely. MVFR/IFR.

Friday... Chance snow showers southeast of the lakes with MVFR/IFR
otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk northwesterlies to westerlies will be the rule through midweek
on Lake Ontario...while on Lake Erie brisk westerlies will develop
on Monday...then will continue through midweek. Accordingly...Small
Craft Advisories are in effect as outlined below. While some lower-
end Gale Force winds still cannot be totally ruled out across both
lakes on Tuesday...at this point it appears as if sustained wind
speeds will be confined to around 30 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low maximums and record low temperatures will be
challenged today as arctic air continues to flow across the
Eastern Great Lakes region. Below are records for January 1st.

MONDAY/NEW YEARS DAY

Buffalo      11(1918)    0 (1970)
Rochester    10(1918)   -8 (1970)
Watertown    14(1989)  -11 (1989)

Period Records: Buffalo (1871-Present), Rochester (1871-Present) and
Watertown (1949-Present)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KTYX WSR-88D radar at Montague, NY has suffered a motor
failure. A part is enroute to the radar and, due to the
holiday, service will likely not be restored until Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Chill Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Tuesday morning
     for NYZ004>006.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 AM
     EST Tuesday for NYZ019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
         Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for
         LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST
         Thursday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...HSK/THOMAS
EQUIPMENT...CHURCH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
715 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

NYZ019-020-020015-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
715 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 25 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010>014-021-085-020015-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
715 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 25 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-020015-
Monroe-
715 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

In addition...lake effect snow could produce accumulations of 4
inches or more between Monday afternoon and night.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 25 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-020015-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
715 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 25 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-020015-
Jefferson-Lewis-
715 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

An exceptionally cold airmass will arrive Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time may drop to
dangerous levels of colder than 40 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-020015-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
715 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

HITCHCOCK/JJR