Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2018
Lake Effect Snow Warning 5, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Feb 7, 2018, 2:53 PM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Feb 8, 2018, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for 26 hr. 10 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 7, 2018, 2:53 PM EST (19:53 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 8, 2018, 10:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Feb 9, 2018, 11:45 AM EST
- In force
- 26 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 5:02 AM EST | SNOW 4.5 | Highmarket, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Feb 9, 5:57 AM EST | SNOW 14.8 | 8 N Redfield, NY | |
| Feb 9, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 5.8 | 4 Sse Lacona, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Feb 9, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 3.5 | Bennetts Bridge, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Feb 9, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 3.5 | Lowville, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Feb 9, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 14.8 | 8 N Redfield, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Feb 9, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 21.7 | Se Lorraine, NY | |
| Feb 9, 10:20 AM EST | SNOW 21 | Mannsville, NY | |
| Feb 9, 10:23 AM EST | SNOW 14 | Copenhagen, NY | |
| Feb 9, 11:00 AM EST | SNOW 10.3 | 12 Nnw Hooker, NY |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1185 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 80 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 273 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
345
WWUS41 KBUF 071953
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-072100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
253 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
Moderate to heavy snow has ended. Light snow will continue through
the afternoon. An additional dusting to a half inch is possible.
$$
NYZ006>008-080400-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0005.180208T1500Z-180209T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
253 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM
EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the evening commute. Additional
snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches through tonight. Heavy lake
effect snow expected Thursday into Friday. Total snow
accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are expected in the
most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.
* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 4 AM EST Thursday.
For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM
EST Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times. Widespread snow will taper off tonight and
will transition to lake effect snow showers by Thursday morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4372 7544 4388 7570 4383 7626 4361 7623
4345 7659 4346 7561
TIME Y18M02D09T0300Z-Y18M02D09T1200Z
$$
NYZ012>014-020-021-080400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean,
and Wellsville
253 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are
expected.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, and
Allegany counties.
* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
NYZ003>005-080400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
253 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
expected.
* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.
* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times. Widespread snow will transition to lake
effect snow tonight and continue into Thursday morning.
Accumulating snow is expected within the most persistent lake
snows.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$12 follow-up statements
046
WWUS41 KBUF 072006
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
306 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
NYZ006>008-080415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.180208T1500Z-180209T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
306 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY
TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the evening commute. Additional
snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches through tonight. Heavy lake
effect snow expected Thursday into Friday. Total snow
accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.
* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 4 AM EST Thursday.
For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM
EST Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times. Widespread snow will taper off tonight
and will transition to lake effect snow showers by Thursday
morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4378 7534 4390 7588 4383 7629 4357 7625
4343 7667 4324 7648 4320 7587 4348 7581 4342 7550
TIME Y18M02D08T1500Z-Y18M02D08T2100Z
COORD...4408 7530 4400 7604 4404 7640 4355 7625
4349 7588 4369 7529
TIME Y18M02D08T2100Z-Y18M02D09T0300Z
COORD...4372 7544 4388 7570 4383 7626 4361 7623
4345 7659 4346 7561
TIME Y18M02D09T0300Z-Y18M02D09T1200Z
COORD...4401 7570 4409 7606 4404 7637 4355 7625
4357 7562 4376 7555
TIME Y18M02D09T1200Z-Y18M02D09T1800Z
$$
NYZ012>014-020-021-080415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean,
and Wellsville
306 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are
expected.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, and
Allegany counties.
* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
NYZ003>005-080415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
306 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
expected.
* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.
* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times. Widespread snow will transition to lake
effect snow tonight and continue into Thursday morning.
Accumulating snow is expected within the most persistent lake
snows.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$458
WWUS41 KBUF 072246
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
546 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
NYZ006>008-080700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.180208T1500Z-180209T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
546 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY
TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16
inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.
* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4378 7534 4390 7588 4383 7629 4357 7625
4343 7667 4324 7648 4320 7587 4348 7581 4342 7550
TIME Y18M02D08T1500Z-Y18M02D08T2100Z
COORD...4408 7530 4400 7604 4404 7640 4355 7625
4349 7588 4369 7529
TIME Y18M02D08T2100Z-Y18M02D09T0300Z
COORD...4372 7544 4388 7570 4383 7626 4361 7623
4345 7659 4346 7561
TIME Y18M02D09T0300Z-Y18M02D09T1200Z
COORD...4401 7570 4409 7606 4404 7637 4355 7625
4357 7562 4376 7555
TIME Y18M02D09T1200Z-Y18M02D09T1800Z
$$
NYZ003-080700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0050.180207T2246Z-180208T1100Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
546 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS REPLACED BY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on slippery road
conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are
expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Monroe county. The greatest amounts will be across far
northern portions of the county near the lakeshore.
* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Thursday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
NYZ004-005-080700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0050.180207T2246Z-180208T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
546 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS REPLACED BY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on slippery road
conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday.
Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected in
the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.
* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
NYZ012>014-020-021-080000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean,
and Wellsville
546 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
Snow showers may result in up to an inch of additional snow
accumulation this evening.
$$
Apffel951
WWUS41 KBUF 080258
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
958 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
NYZ006>008-081100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.180208T1500Z-180209T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
958 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY
TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16
inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.
* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4378 7534 4390 7588 4383 7629 4357 7625
4343 7667 4324 7648 4320 7587 4348 7581 4342 7550
TIME Y18M02D08T1500Z-Y18M02D08T2100Z
COORD...4408 7530 4400 7604 4404 7640 4355 7625
4349 7588 4369 7529
TIME Y18M02D08T2100Z-Y18M02D09T0300Z
COORD...4372 7544 4388 7570 4383 7626 4361 7623
4345 7659 4346 7561
TIME Y18M02D09T0300Z-Y18M02D09T1200Z
COORD...4401 7570 4409 7606 4404 7637 4355 7625
4357 7562 4376 7555
TIME Y18M02D09T1200Z-Y18M02D09T1800Z
$$
NYZ003-081100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-180208T1100Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
958 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road
conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are
expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Monroe county. The greatest amounts will be across far
northern portions of the county near the lakeshore.
* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Thursday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
NYZ004-005-081100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-180208T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
958 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road
conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday.
Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected in
the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.
* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$196
WWUS41 KBUF 080857
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
357 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
NYZ006>008-081700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.180208T1500Z-180209T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
357 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 18
inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.
* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lake effect snow will drift north along the
Oswego County shoreline this morning and into Jefferson County
this afternoon. The band of lake effect snow will intensify this
evening near Watertown, with potentially heavy snow developing
during the evening commute. The band will then settle south over
the central Tug Hill overnight, with snowfall rates likely to
reach 2 to 3 inches per hour into early Friday morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4364 7593 4367 7623 4355 7625 4356 7643
4345 7663 4325 7658 4322 7623 4340 7592
TIME Y18M02D08T1500Z-Y18M02D08T2100Z
COORD...4400 7559 4423 7588 4423 7618 4415 7638
4386 7637 4370 7623 4357 7625 4363 7563
TIME Y18M02D08T2100Z-Y18M02D09T0300Z
COORD...4369 7556 4390 7564 4391 7594 4379 7630
4361 7623 4355 7625 4348 7600 4352 7563
TIME Y18M02D09T0300Z-Y18M02D09T1800Z
$$
NYZ003-081100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-180208T1100Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
357 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road
conditions, including during the morning commute. Additional
snow accumulations up to 2 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Monroe county.
* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST early this morning.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Greatest accumulations are expected along
and north of the 104 corridor, especially toward the northeast
corner of the county near Webster.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
NYZ004-005-081500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-180208T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
357 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road
conditions, including during the morning commute. Additional
snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.
* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Church871
WWUS41 KBUF 081034
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
534 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
NYZ003-081145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-180208T1100Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
534 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
While scattered lake effect snow showers with little additional
accumulation will linger early this morning, the most steady
accumulating lake effect snow has shifted east into Wayne and N.
Cayuga counties.
$$
NYZ006>008-081845-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.180208T1500Z-180209T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
534 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 18
inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.
* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lake effect snow will drift north along the
Oswego County shoreline this morning and into Jefferson County
this afternoon. The band of lake effect snow will intensify this
evening near Watertown, with potentially heavy snow developing
during the evening commute. The band will then settle south over
the central Tug Hill overnight, with snowfall rates likely to
reach 2 to 3 inches per hour into early Friday morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4364 7593 4367 7623 4355 7625 4356 7643
4345 7663 4325 7658 4322 7623 4340 7592
TIME Y18M02D08T1500Z-Y18M02D08T2100Z
COORD...4400 7559 4423 7588 4423 7618 4415 7638
4386 7637 4370 7623 4357 7625 4363 7563
TIME Y18M02D08T2100Z-Y18M02D09T0300Z
COORD...4369 7556 4390 7564 4391 7594 4379 7630
4361 7623 4355 7625 4348 7600 4352 7563
TIME Y18M02D09T0300Z-Y18M02D09T1800Z
$$
NYZ004-005-081500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-180208T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
534 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road
conditions, including during the morning commute. Additional
snow accumulations of up to 2 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.
* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Church304
WWUS41 KBUF 081443
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
943 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
NYZ004-005-081545-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-180208T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
943 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
Lake effect snow has moved north of the region this morning.
$$
NYZ006>008-082245-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.180208T1500Z-180209T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
943 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 18
inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.
* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lake effect snow will drift north along
the Oswego County shoreline this morning and into Jefferson
County this afternoon. The band of lake effect snow will
intensify this evening near Watertown, with potentially heavy
snow developing during the evening commute. The band will then
settle south over the central Tug Hill overnight, with
snowfall rates likely to reach 2 to 3 inches per hour into
early Friday morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4364 7593 4367 7623 4355 7625 4356 7643
4345 7663 4325 7658 4322 7623 4340 7592
TIME Y18M02D08T1500Z-Y18M02D08T2100Z
COORD...4400 7559 4423 7588 4423 7618 4415 7638
4386 7637 4370 7623 4357 7625 4363 7563
TIME Y18M02D08T2100Z-Y18M02D09T0300Z
COORD...4369 7556 4390 7564 4391 7594 4379 7630
4361 7623 4355 7625 4348 7600 4352 7563
TIME Y18M02D09T0300Z-Y18M02D09T1800Z
$$439
WWUS41 KBUF 081921
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
221 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
NYZ006>008-090330-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180209T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
221 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 18
inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.
* WHEN...Through 1 PM EST Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lake effect snow will drift north along the
Oswego County shoreline and into Jefferson County this
afternoon. The band of lake effect snow will intensify this
evening near Watertown, with potentially heavy snow developing
during the evening commute. The band will then settle south over
the central Tug Hill overnight, with snowfall rates likely to
reach 2 to 3 inches per hour into early Friday morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4364 7593 4367 7623 4355 7625 4356 7643
4345 7663 4325 7658 4322 7623 4340 7592
TIME Y18M02D08T1500Z-Y18M02D08T2100Z
COORD...4400 7559 4423 7588 4423 7618 4415 7638
4386 7637 4370 7623 4357 7625 4363 7563
TIME Y18M02D08T2100Z-Y18M02D09T0300Z
COORD...4369 7556 4390 7564 4391 7594 4379 7630
4361 7623 4355 7625 4348 7600 4352 7563
TIME Y18M02D09T0300Z-Y18M02D09T1800Z
$$093
WWUS41 KBUF 082254
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
554 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
NYZ006>008-090700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180209T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
554 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible, including during the evening commute.
Additional snow accumulations of 12 to 20 inches are expected
in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The heaviest snow will
be across the Tug Hill near the Jefferson and Oswego county
line.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lake effect snow will become heavy tonight,
producing snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour at times.
During this time, the band will settle near the central Tug Hill
while crossing Interstate 81. Travel through this band will be
extremely difficult with near zero visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4389 7540 4401 7550 4404 7580 4394 7603
4388 7634 4370 7623 4349 7617 4348 7579 4356 7550
4367 7539
TIME Y18M02D08T2100Z-Y18M02D09T0300Z
COORD...4378 7512 4387 7541 4391 7594 4387 7628
4361 7623 4353 7650 4344 7633 4348 7581 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y18M02D09T0300Z-Y18M02D09T1200Z
COORD...4379 7566 4395 7591 4399 7634 4386 7637
4383 7629 4367 7623 4355 7625 4350 7602 4352 7584
4366 7566
TIME Y18M02D09T1200Z-Y18M02D09T1800Z
$$961
WWUS41 KBUF 090225
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
925 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
NYZ006>008-091030-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180209T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
925 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to
16 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The heaviest snow will
be across the Tug Hill near the Jefferson and Oswego county
line.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow will produce
snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour at times overnight.
Travel through this intense band will be extremely difficult
with near zero visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4380 7512 4385 7520 4391 7579 4387 7628
4361 7623 4357 7625 4350 7623 4353 7569 4366 7542
4369 7517
TIME Y18M02D09T0200Z-Y18M02D09T1200Z
COORD...4379 7566 4395 7591 4399 7634 4386 7637
4383 7629 4367 7623 4355 7625 4350 7602 4352 7584
4366 7566
TIME Y18M02D09T1200Z-Y18M02D09T1800Z
$$632
WWUS41 KBUF 090835
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
335 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018
NYZ006>008-091645-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180209T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
335 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult
travel conditions, including the morning commute today.
Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected in
the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The heaviest snow will
be across the Tug Hill near the Jefferson and Oswego county
line.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow will produce
snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour this morning. Travel
through this intense band will be extremely difficult with near
zero visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4373 7550 4383 7563 4397 7634 4363 7623
4359 7625 4347 7642 4353 7569 4356 7559
TIME Y18M02D09T0800Z-Y18M02D09T1800Z
$$
NYZ001-002-010>012-085-091645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0051.180209T1500Z-180210T1100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
335 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 AM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
especially for the evening commute today. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected.
* WHERE...The Niagara Frontier.
* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow will spread north across the
Niagara Frontier by midday becoming moderate at times this
afternoon into tonight. Snowfall rates are expected to peak near
a half inch per hour during the evening commute, which will
result in slippery travel conditions and reduced visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Church308
WWUS41 KBUF 091416
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
916 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018
NYZ006-008-091530-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180209T1800Z/
Oswego-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville
916 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...
Heavy lake effect snow has moved out of the area.
$$
NYZ007-091800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180209T1800Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
916 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult
travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2
inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Jefferson county.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4400 7583 4415 7602 4422 7623 4415 7638
4402 7640 4386 7637 4383 7629 4370 7625 4371 7613
4383 7587
TIME Y18M02D09T0800Z-Y18M02D09T1800Z
$$
NYZ001-002-010>012-085-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0051.180209T1500Z-180210T1100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
916 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches are expected.
* WHERE...The Niagara Frontier.
* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$545 WWUS41 KBUF 091645 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1145 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 NYZ007-091745- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180209T1800Z/ Jefferson- Including the city of Watertown 1145 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... Lake effect snow has moved out of the area. $$ NYZ001-002-010>012-085-100045- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-180210T1100Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 1145 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the evening commute. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected. * WHERE...The Niagara Frontier. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Feb 7, 10:53 AM EST, 4 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 7, 10:53 AM EST, 4 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1053 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm will impact the region today with a period of
widespread moderate to heavy snow this morning, tapering off to snow
showers this afternoon. Lake effect snows redevelop southeast of
Lake Ontario tonight before moving east of Lake Ontario through
Friday. Slightly below average temperatures will linger through
Friday, with another chance of light widespread snow Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...Winter storm to bring moderate to heavy snow across the region
today...
Moderate to heavy snow continues across the forecast area this
morning. Accumulations of 1-2 inches have been reported across
Western NY and the western Finger Lakes and 3-4 inches across
the North Country as of 1030AM. Snow will continue with 0.5-1
inch/hr rates into the early afternoon. A dry slot is visible
on regional radar and satellite across Ohio and is approaching
Western NY. Snow will taper off across the Southern Tier and the
Niagara Frontier by early afternoon. Heavy snow will continue
across the Finger Lakes, lake shore of Lake Ontario and North
Country well into the afternoon
GOES East satellite imagery shows the developing storm system
over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys, with an impressive
baroclinic leaf with cooling cloud tops expanding northeastward
across western and central NY. As the PV max seen in WV imagery
digging into the upper mid-west this morning swings eastward
toward the lower Great Lakes, the developing surface low will
deepen while tracking quickly up the Appalachian mountains this
afternoon, to off the New England coast tonight. The period of
heaviest snowfall will move across the region from SW to NE this
morning through early afternoon as the DPVA aloft coincides
with the best moisture advection and the inverted surface trough
ahead of the deepening low. While this period of heavy snow may
only last a few hours, rates are expected to top out around 1
inch per hour. These higher rates will increase across south and
western portions of the forecast area after 7am and begin to
taper off around noon time. Meanwhile, for the North Country,
rates should increase after 9am and begin to taper off around
2-3pm.
After this period of widespread moderate to heavy snow moves through
the area, more localized additional accumulation are likely to
linger into tonight. As the surface low track by to our east, winds
will swing around to the north and northwest tonight. The shift to
the northerly component winds will quickly increase the cold air
advection across the region, resulting in a lake response along with
frictional convergence and orographic enhancement south of the
lakes. With this, an additional inch or two will be common Wednesday
night over the higher terrain with the upslope enhancement. As the
winds continues to back around to the west/northwest by early
Thursday morning, lake parameters become maximized with additional
synoptic moisture attendant to a weak trailing shortwave in the
cyclonic flow aloft. This should result in a fairly coherent lake
shore hugging band along the Lake Ontario south shore, coming inland
from near Webster across Wayne County to N. Cayuga. Will need to
watch how this band develops closely, as it may require extended or
additional headlines for lake effect snows lingering into Thursday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The period starts off Thursday with weak cold air advection across
the lower Great Lakes. High pressure sliding eastward across the
Ohio Valley will force the low level flow to gradual back allowing
light lake effect snow showers to push northward to areas east or
even east-northeast of the lakes. A nearly frozen Lake Erie will
result in very limited snow accumulations. Moisture will be a
limiting factor off Lake Ontario early in the day, but the arrival
of better synoptic moisture and increasing fetch will all come
together to better organize a lake band into the Tug Hill by
afternoon, possibly a couple of inches of fresh accumulation here
before sunset. Otherwise, it will be a quiet and largely dry day
Thursday, with high temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Attention then shifts again to another system that will approach the
region Thursday night into Friday, as a developing baroclinic zone
becomes parked across the lower Great Lakes. This will continue to
improve moisture profiles across the area and with the maintenance
of a westerly or west-southwesterly low level flow lake snows will
continue east and northeast of the lakes. Off Lake Erie these should
again be merely in the form of some limited snow showers, while off
Lake Ontario improved lake parameters will favor a decent band of
lake snow between the Tug Hill Plateau and Watertown. With this
region seeing at least several additional inches of fresh
accumulation. Will continue to highlight this potential in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook. Outside of the lake effect areas the bulk
of the night should be dry, with just a chance of some general snow
showers arriving late in advance of the baroclinic zone.
Friday and Friday night, latest models seems to be converging on a
rather activity frontal zone extending along or close to the
southern New York state border. Current indications suggesting a
long duration snow event starting as early as Friday morning and
persisting through Friday night and perhaps even into Saturday.
Widespread accumulations during this period look to be on the order
of at least a few inches. The potential is there for more
significant snowfall accumulations, and will need to monitor the
incoming shortwave energy and resultant downstream effects on the
baroclinic zone closely for another potential headline event.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Saturday the lingering frontal boundary across our region will
temporarily weaken. This will lead to a somewhat reduced potential
for some scattered light snow showers through the day...for which
some lower-end chance PoPs will remain in play. Otherwise it will be
a generally quiet day...with modification of our previously cold
airmass allowing high temperatures to recover back into the lower
to mid 30s areawide.
Saturday night and Sunday our weather will then deteriorate again
as a moisture-laden area of low pressure tracks northeastward across
the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states...with notable differences
in its track/strength still persisting in the medium range guidance.
The eventual track of this low will be rather important to the forecast
as it appears likely that this system will drag a slug of warmer air
northward along with it...thereby raising potential issues with both
temps and ptype later Saturday night and Sunday...all of which has
been reflected in the forecast with a general snow/rain mix for now.
This system should quickly exit to our east Sunday night...with
high pressure and much drier air then building across our area for
the Monday-Tuesday time frame. This should result in mainly dry and
uneventful weather for the last couple days of this period...with
temperatures eventually rebounding into the upper 30s to mid 40s by
Tuesday as warmer air advects into our region.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUB-IFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the morning
as widespread moderate to occasionally heavy snow overspreads
the region. The overall worst conditions will be between roughly
15Z and 20Z, with a general improving trend from west to east
this afternoon and evening as snow tapers off to more localized
showers east of the lakes tonight. Lake effect snow with
localized IFR will redevelop southeast of Lake Ontario overnight
tonight.
Outlook...
Thursday...VFR, with local MVFR/IFR in lake effect -SHSN.
Friday...MVFR/IFR in -SN. Saturday...VFR-->IFR, as another system
moves in.
Sunday...Mainly IFR. Rain or snow likely.
&&
.MARINE...
A low pressure system will quickly take shape near the Ohio River
Valley this morning with easterly winds becoming northwest and
increasing by this evening evening. Small craft conditions will
develop on Lake Ontario this evening. Winds shift to the west on
Thursday. Southerly winds return for Friday as high pressure shifts
east of the New England coast.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ003>008-
012>014-020-021.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ001-002-
010-011-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Thursday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Thursday for LOZ042.
&&
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HSK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...CHURCH/HSK
MARINE...CHURCHHazardous weather outlook, Feb 7, 5:27 AM EST, 9 hours 26 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 527 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 NYZ006>008-081030- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 527 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Another round of lake effect snow is expected across the region between Thursday and Friday, during which time some additional potentially headline-worthy amounts will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ003>005-012>014-020-021-081030- Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus- Allegany- 527 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Accumulating snow is expected to develop Friday and continue into Saturday, during which time some additional potentially headline- worthy amounts will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-081030- Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- 527 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Accumulating snow is expected to develop Friday and continue into Saturday, during which time some additional potentially headline- worthy amounts will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-081030- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 527 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Feb 7, 10:03 AM EST, 4 hours 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1003 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 NYZ006>008-071900- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1003 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 ...Moderate to heavy snow to persist into this afternoon... Widespread moderate to heavy snow will persist across the area through this afternoon. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour can be expected. This will coat roads quickly...resulting in slick spots on area roadways. Additionally...visibilities will be reduced to a quarter of a mile or less at times. If traveling...slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination. NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-071900- Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 1003 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 ...Moderate snow to persist through into early this afternoon... Widespread moderate snow will persist across the area through around 1 pm...then diminish in intensity from west to east. Snowfall rates of a half inch per hour can be expected...resulting in slick spots on area roadways. Additionally...visibilities will be reduced to a quarter of a mile at times. If traveling...slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination. NYZ003>005-012>014-020-021-071900- Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario- Cattaraugus-Allegany- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville 1003 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 ...Moderate to heavy snow to persist into early this afternoon... Widespread moderate to heavy snow will persist across the area through this afternoon. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour can be expected. This will coat roads quickly...resulting in slick spots on area roadways. Additionally...visibilities will be reduced to a quarter of a mile or less at times. If traveling...slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Local storm report, Feb 7, 10:45 AM EST, 4 hours 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 AM EST WED FEB 07 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM SNOW S WATERTOWN 43.97N 75.91W
02/07/2018 M3.9 INCH JEFFERSON NY COCORAHS
SNOW FROM 630AM TO 1030AM
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800405
DPKLocal storm report, Feb 7, 1:49 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 PM EST WED FEB 07 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 PM SNOW 3 S WILSON 43.27N 78.83W
02/07/2018 M5.0 INCH NIAGARA NY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800406
SJWSpecial weather statement, Feb 7, 2:07 PM EST, 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 207 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 NYZ006>008-072115- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 207 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING... Widespread moderate to heavy snow will persist across the area through the early evening including the evening commute. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour can be expected. This will coat roads quickly...resulting in slippery driving conditions on area roadways. Visibilities will be reduced to a quarter of a mile or less at times. If traveling...slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination. NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-072115- Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 207 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 ...LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... Widespread light snow will persist across the area through the afternoon across the area. Snowfall will coat roads quickly...resulting in slippery driving conditions on area roadways. If traveling...slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination. NYZ003>005-012>014-020-021-072115- Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario- Cattaraugus-Allegany- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville 207 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018 ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING... Widespread moderate to heavy snow will persist across the area through the early evening including the evening commute. Snowfall rates of a half inch to an inch per hour can be expected. This will coat roads quickly...resulting in slippery driving conditions on area roadways. Visibilities will be reduced to half of a mile or less at times. If traveling...slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Local storm report, Feb 7, 2:38 PM EST, 15 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 PM EST WED FEB 07 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM SNOW KILL BUCK 42.13N 78.68W
02/07/2018 M6.0 INCH CATTARAUGUS NY SOCIAL MEDIA
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1800407
SJWThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 7:19 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Lewis | 41 min |
| Feb 7, 3:36 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 54 hr | |
| Feb 7, 5:46 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Cayuga, Monroe, Wayne | 16 hr |
| Feb 7, 6:33 PM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 39 hr |
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2018Every lake effect snow warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.