Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
401 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): KBRO Doppler radar imagery
suggests that counterclockwise circulation over central Jim Hogg
County is the center of closed 500 mb low pressure that has
plagued Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley with record
rainfall during the past few days. This mid-level feature is
generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across
a vast majority of the BRO CWFA at this time. Unfortunately,
another round of numerous convection with locally heavy rainfall
will occur today as the closed 500 mb low shifts southwest into
Mexico as 500 mb high pressure builds over extreme northwest
Mexico. Lingering isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible tonight before dry weather finally returns on Friday
as the aforementioned 500 mb high becomes more dominant.
Temperatures held at below normal levels today will rebound to
near normal levels on Friday with no rain and reduced cloud
coverage.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): The long term
certainly starts off drier with an H5 ridge building into the
region as the ULL continues moving southwest away from the region.
As the high builds in, expect warmer temperatures and more
sunshine. The only story this weekend will be the breezy
conditions as pressure gradient increases between lee troughing
west and surface high pressure across the Gulf or Florida
Peninsula.

As the enlogated high stretching across northern Mexico is pinched
off by an advancing mid level trough, a 592dm high moves to our
east across LA. This will allow for a weak inverted upper level
trough to slide northwestward toward the region by early next
week. GFS is drier than ECM and CMC at this time. With a weak QPF
signal and anticipation of isolated/scattered activity, kept POPs
a bit on the low side for now.

Going into midweek, temperatures look to be around average or so
for this time of year with intermittent rain chances (mainly
diurnally driven).

&&

.MARINE (Now through Friday): Neighboring Buoy 42019 reported east-
southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas
slightly over 4.5 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 150 CDT/650
UTC. Light to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail along
the Lower Texas Coast with swells approaching the area beginning to
subside. Small Craft Exercise Caution will likely be needed for a
portion of the Gulf of Mexico waters today.

(Friday Night through Wednesday): Mostly light to moderate winds
and seas can be expected to begin the long term marine period.
There will be a subtle increase this weekend as surface flow
increases (increasing wind wave/swell). Despite the increase in
surface winds, think that conditions will remain just below SCA
thresholds at this time. Conditions gradually improve a bit as
surface pressure gradient relaxes by early to midweek next week as
high pressure moves closer to our region from the east.

.HYDROLOGY: The Flood Warning for the Los Olmos Creek near
Falfurrias in Brooks County has been allowed to expire, as water
levels have fallen below flood stage. However, additional flooding
is possible if heavy showers and thunderstorms pass over the region
in the near future.

Additionally, the Flash Flood Watch for all of Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley has been extended until around sunset Thursday
evening, as showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to
create flash flooding within the inland portions of the BRO CWFA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  79  89  78 /  70  30   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          88  79  91  78 /  70  30   0  10
HARLINGEN            88  79  93  77 /  70  30   0  10
MCALLEN              89  79  94  77 /  70  30   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  76  95  76 /  70  30   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  79  84  79 /  60  20   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ248>257-351-353.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation/Hydro...Tomaselli-66
Long Term/RDA...Frye-55

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
442 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

TXZ248>257-351-353-221100-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
442 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley until 7 PM CDT this evening.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches
Sunday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any observations of flash flooding should be reported to local law
enforcement and the National Weather Service office in Brownsville.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-221100-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
442 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for portions or all of the
Lower Texas coastal waters Saturday through Tuesday due to strong
winds or rough seas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
511 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROMA                    26.40N 99.01W
06/21/2018                   STARR              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROMA POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTS FLOODED
            STREETS OF WATER DEPTH OF 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE
            CITY OF ROMA IN ADDITION TO THE LA VICTORIA
            NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
614 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E RIO GRANDE CITY     26.38N 98.81W
06/21/2018                   STARR              TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TEXAS DOT REPORTED WATER OVER ROADWAY ON US
            HWY 83 JUST EAST OF RIO GRANDE CITY.

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
615 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W RIO GRANDE CITY     26.37N 98.87W
06/21/2018                   STARR              TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TX DOT REPORTED WATER ON HWY 83 NEAR
            HERNANDEZ ROAD IN WEST RIO GRANDE CITY.

&&

RFRYE