Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Brownsville, TX

200 
WGUS74 KBRO 210929
FFSBRO

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
429 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

TXC061-489-210939-
/O.CAN.KBRO.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180621T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cameron TX-Willacy TX-
429 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL CAMERON AND CENTRAL WILLACY
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 2660 9761 2660 9744 2649 9741 2651 9742
      2647 9742 2645 9746 2647 9740 2642 9745
      2641 9745 2644 9739 2641 9739 2639 9741
      2640 9738 2601 9743 2601 9765

$$

FRYE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1236 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Scattered convection has begun firing near the
aerodromes and is expected to persist through the remainder of
the overnight hours. Tomorrow, the showers and thunderstorms
will persist as the mid-level disturbance responsible for the
convection eases farther into Mexico but still close enough to
generate unsettled weather. The current TAFs are far from perfect,
but should convey to all pilots that aviation conditions will be
far from stellar through the next 24 hours.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 745 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...Bumped up pops to 90 percent across the board
this evening and overnight with regeneration of convection across
much of the CWA over the last 1-2 hours. Large mid level
circulation extending over S Texas and NE Mexico with embedded
smaller circulations are generating widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms. GOES-16 Clean IR imagery showing cold
convective tops at -84C around widespread -75C within a growing
MCS over NE Mexico and Deep South Texas. The heaviest rain band
extends from Matamoros, Tamaulipas through Cameron and Willacy
counties with rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour. Another area
of strong convection is firing over Kenedy county west of 69E.
Light to moderate rainfall is noted over Zapata and Starr counties
with some stronger echos expected as continued warm rain
processes and destabilization commences.

Training of showers and thunderstorms and further increase in
coverage of heavy rainfall will exacerbate any ongoing flooding
with addition areas flooding this evening and overnight. The flash
flood watch remains in effect for all of Deep South Texas
overnight.

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Convection is expected to be widespread this evening
and overnight spreading impacting all three terminal sites. MVFR
is likely to prevail with occasional IFR within the strongest
convection. MVFR is likely through the morning hours Thursday with
some improvement in the afternoon as Thunderstorm chances taper
off.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/

SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night):  Still another 18-24 hours
to get through with the ongoing heavy rain/flooding event.
Rainfall totals reached 8-12 inches within about 4 hours in the
heaviest hit areas from Mercedes toward Weslaco earlier today.
Water rescues continue, and an Areal Flood Warning is in effect
for that area through 7:30 pm. Has been in a lull in rainfall for
the past several hours, as even a tropical airmass will need a
little time "recharge". As of this writing, new convection is
developing east of Hwy. 77/I-69E, where clouds thinned during the
day and insolation allowed destabilization. (BRO reached 92F
earlier.)

Forecast models in reasonably good agreement on the bigger
picture, namely, that the mid-level low will start to sag away
toward the SW (from its current position right over the CWA)
beginning tonight. Also showing more of a QPF signal in the
western counties of Starr/Zapata/Jim Hogg later this evening and
into the overnight. Have shaded PoP's higher out that way as a
result.  This will be an area to watch for instances
of "new" flooding. WPC has placed a 1"+ QPF bullseye out there as
well. Rain "still to come" will generally range 1-2", with
perhaps 3-4" in spots.

Though the main low is progged to be over interior Mexico by mid-
day Thursday, mid-level inverted troughiness will linger through
much of the day. PW stays in the 2.25-2.5" range. Will keep PoP's
in the higher-end scattered range as a result. If the interior can
heat up (forecast high temps in the upper 80s to near 90F), with
light onshore background flow, sea-breeze could even act to focus
convergence and act as a trigger for additional thunderstorms.

As time goes on, it should become a little harder to get the
really high convective rainfall rates, with the mid-level center
becoming further displaced from the area. Of course, with the
widespread rains, it won't take much for additional flash
flooding, especially along the I-2 corridor between Harlingen and
McAllen.  After collaboration with CRP, will also be extending
Flash Flood Watch through 1 pm Thursday for all counties of Deep
South Texas.

Moving into Thursday night, H5 ridge axis finally builds in from
the Desert SW. PW finally falls below 2.0" with only isolated
light showers expected.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday):  Weather over deep south TX to
be dominated in the Friday through Sunday period by strong mid/upper
level high pressure elongated west to east across northern Mexico
into much of TX. Main impacts will be to maintain hot, precipitation
free but very humid conditions across the area. Highs on Friday look
to range from the lower 90s at the coast to the mid/upper 90s
inland. The high pressure will strengthen Saturday/Sunday bringing
hotter days with mid 90s at the coast and upper 90s to around 102
mid valley and westward.

Late Sunday...an inverted trough of low pressure will approach the
forecast area from the southeast. This trough looks to sweep
westward across deep south Texas on Monday bringing increased low
level moisture that will lead to low chances of showers and
thunderstorms across mostly the east half of the region Sunday night
through Tuesday. Weakening of the high pressure by the incoming
trough, and the addition of the aforementioned low level moisture,
will bring somewhat lower high temperatures Monday through
Wednesday. Highs the three days will range from the lower 90s at the
coast with mid/upper 90s inland.

MARINE (Now through Thursday Night): Mainly moderate SE winds and
Gulf seas of 3-5 ft. are expected. Showers and thunderstorms will
produce locally gusty winds and more agitated seas through
Thursday, before rain chances taper off Thursday night.

Friday through Monday:  Moderate winds/seas to open the
period as high pressure prevails over the northwest Gulf. Winds/seas
to then build and remain elevated Saturday through Monday with Small
Craft Advisories likely through the three day period.

HYDROLOGY: The Flood Warning for the Los Olmos Creek near
Falfurrias in Brooks County remains in effect until this evening.
Minor flooding is occurring. The river is forecast to fall below
flood stage later this afternoon, with a continued gradual fall
through Thursday.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ248>257-351-353.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
521 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

TXZ248>257-351-353-212230-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
521 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of Deep South Texas
through tonight.

There is a high risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and Boca Chica beach.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall, will
continue across portions of Deep South Texas Thursday. Flooding
may again occur in heavier showers and thunderstorms, especially
where the ground is saturated, and the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be extended.

An elevated risk of rip currents will continue through the rest
of the week due to high wave heights and swell.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please forward any reports of flooding to local law enforcement or
the National Weather Service in Brownsville.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-212230-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
521 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall and possible
waterspouts are possible across the coastal waters. Winds and
seas will be higher in and near thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of the coastal
waters Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.