Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
308 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will move through the region tonight
and early Saturday with more showers and storms. High pressure
will then build into the region for the remainder of the weekend
resulting in drier weather. Another cold front will move toward
the region by the middle of next week leading to the next chance
for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Water vapor channels show an upper level low moving up the east
coast off the Middle Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile an upper level
wave will move into the Great Lakes region into tonight. The
combination of these two upper level features will lead to
increased upper confluence and intensify an upper level jet
streak over southern Quebec into this evening. This will
enhance upper divergence and lifting over NY and PA. The coarser
resolution models still hang on to the idea of a band of heavy
rain across the central portion of the WFO BGM forecast area.
The NAM12 is most aggressive with a stripe of around 4 inches+
from about UCA-BGM and Towanda. The GFS/EURO and CMC have a
similar idea but amounts are up to 2 inches. The CAM models
emphasis more convection especially south and east and don't
have such a "neat" linear pattern as one would expect. Based on
the upper dynamics, lack of instability west and north of the
Catskills and Poconos we think there will be a band of heavier
rain but the NAM likely is overdone so we have 2-3" of rain
total for this event which is an additional 1-2" into the night
mainly east and south of a UCA-ELM line. Additionally, given the
propensity for more convection in our south and eastern areas we
think the band of heavier rain will be a little farther south
and east than what the NAM12 advertises. This is also where we
have a flash flood watch which looks on track as locally heavier
rain will be possible until late tonight. I wouldn't be
surprised to see localized 4+ inch amounts.

After this upper level wave passes by overnight up the coast,
the Great Lakes wave moves east reaching NY and Pa by Saturday
Morning. The NAM12 develops a meso-low over northeast Pa which
looks suspect so will drop POPs some from previous forecast for
later tonight more in line with other offices.

Then for Saturday, upper level trough overhead with still a
fairly moisture boundary layer and heating will lead to
isolated showers and maybe a few storms. So added isolated POPs
for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Ridging surface and aloft will bring dry weather to the area in
the short term. Rising heights and low level dry air will allow
sun to push temps into the upper 80s in many places, with a few
places in the lower elevations hitting the lower 90s.

Upper ridge begins to break down late in the day Monday,
especially over the western zones. This will bring the
possibility of isolated thunderstorms over the Finger Lakes in
the afternoon, but coverage will be very limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A broad but shallow long wave trough over the Great Lakes slowly
migrates east in the long term, bringing a chance of showers
and thunderstorms through the period. The best chance will be
late on Wednesday into Thursday as short waves comes by dragging
a surface cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with
this system as it moves through. Behind the system, upper
trofiness will keep a chance of showers into Thursday with the
instability.

Temperatures will be quite seasonable under the upper trough,
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs during the
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A shield of showers will affect most of our terminals into the
evening hours. Outside of the heavier showers conditions were
VFR at all terminals but with heavier showers restrictions in
visibility and ceilings will drop to at least MVFR at times
through at least 02z and briefly IFR. At KAVP, expect mainly VFR
except during times of thunderstorms between 19z and 03z where
conditions could drop to MVFR-IFR briefly. Confidence is high
that areas of MVFR/IFR will be associated with the heavier
showers/storms but is low on how much they impact each
terminal. Then after main shield of showers and storms passes
through by 02z-04z, expect rich boundary layer moisture to lead
to MVFR ceilings all terminals except KSYR between 07z-14z. We
expect a period of IFR at KBGM and KAVP between 11z and 15z.
Confidence is low this far out. After 14z-15z all terminals will
improve to VFR.

Winds will be mainly light southwesterly under 10 knots through
the period.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Monday... Mainly VFR, but fog
possible early Sunday and Monday mornings.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible in scattered
showers and storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NYZ024-045-046-
     055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MWG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

NYZ024-045-046-055-056-PAZ038-039-043-041915-
Chemung-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Bradford-Susquehanna-Wyoming-
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044-041915-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding of smaller
streams, creeks and poor drainage areas will be possible. Areas that
have already had heavy rainfall in the past week will be more
vulnerable. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

NYZ057-062-PAZ040-044-047-048-072-041915-
Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this evening may contain
gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

DJN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
339 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

NYZ056-PAZ039-040-043-044-072-032030-
Broome NY-Southern Wayne PA-Wyoming PA-Susquehanna PA-
Northern Wayne PA-Lackawanna PA-
339 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...SOUTHEASTERN
BROOME...EASTERN SUSQUEHANNA...NORTHERN LACKAWANNA...NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 338 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Montrose to near Harford to Factoryville.
Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Carbondale, Jackson, Clifford, Sanford, Susquehanna, Forest City,
Deposit, Susquehanna Depot, Montrose and Harford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Occasional cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 7580 4186 7596 4213 7545 4210 7542
      4205 7543 4202 7541 4200 7539 4201 7537
      4199 7534 4195 7532 4195 7529 4188 7526
      4160 7537 4152 7587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 243DEG 22KT 4184 7583 4176 7573 4155 7581

DAB

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