Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
220 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will move through the region tonight
and early Saturday with more showers and storms. High pressure
will then build into the region for the remainder of the weekend
resulting in drier weather. Another cold front will move toward
the region by the middle of next week leading to the next chance
for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Water vapor channels show an upper level low moving up the east
coast off the Middle Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile an upper level
wave will move into the Great Lakes region into tonight. The
combination of these two upper level features will lead to
increased upper confluence and intensify an upper level jet
streak over southern Quebec into this evening. This will
enhance upper divergence and lifting over NY and PA. The coarser
resolution models still hang on to the idea of a band of heavy
rain across the central portion of the WFO BGM forecast area.
The NAM12 is most aggressive with a stripe of around 4 inches+
from about UCA-BGM and Towanda. The GFS/EURO and CMC have a
similar idea but amounts are up to 2 inches. The CAM models
emphasis more convection especially south and east and don't
have such a "neat" linear pattern as one would expect. Based on
the upper dynamics, lack of instability west and north of the
Catskills and Poconos we think there will be a band of heavier
rain but the NAM likely is overdone so we have 2-3" of rain
total for this event which is an additional 1-2" into the night
mainly east and south of a UCA-ELM line. Additionally, given the
propensity for more convection in our south and eastern areas we
think the band of heavier rain will be a little farther south
and east than what the NAM12 advertises. This is also where we
have a flash flood watch which looks on track as locally heavier
rain will be possible until late toninght. I wouldn't be
surprised to see localized 4+ inch amounts.

After this upper level wave passes by overnight up the coast,
the Great Lakes wave moves east reaching NY and Pa by Saturday
Morning. The NAM12 develops a meso-low over northeast Pa which
looks suspect so will drop POPs some from previous forecast for
later tonight more in line with other offices.

Then for Saturday, upper level trough overhead with still a
fairly moisture boundary layer and heating will lead to
isolated showers and maybe a few storms. So added isolated POPs
for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weather conditions Saturday night through Sunday night are expected
to be very quiet relative to the active pattern we saw last week.
This brief reprieve will be caused by a narrow ne-sw oriented surface
ridge setting up under a low amplitude upper level ridge building
across the ern Great Lakes and Northeast US...along with a much drier
air mass. This change in pattern will also usher in warmer air with
temperatures Sunday and Monday expected to reach into the mid to
upper 80s. Monday may be a few degrees warmer than Sunday, but with
dewpoints in the mid 60s both days, heat indices will climb into the
lower 90s.

The upper level ridge shifts to the east Sunday night, but still
likely influences the region enough to keep weather quiet into
Monday morning. A lead short wave ahead of the next broad trough
across the nrn plains/upper midwest will likely increase cloud cover
later in the day Monday, and possibly trigger a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms...mainly over wrn NY into the Finger
Lakes

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Precipitation coverage and intensity should ramp down Monday night
with the loss of daytime heating, but the parent upper trough back
to the west will be moving through the Great Lakes during this time,
and eventually across the Northeast Tuesday and Wednesday. This
period will be quite active with showers and thunderstorms likely. A
cold front will be associated with this trough, and a sufficient
amount of warm humid air will accumulate ahead of the front...which
will lead to ML CAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg, and combine with
enough deep layer moisture and shear to produce strong or possibly
severe storms into the middle of the week.

The pattern dries out Wednesday night into Thursday with high
pressure building back in behind the departing system, along with a
much drier air mass. Temperatures should remain steady through the
rest of the week as well, with highs in the upper 70s and 80s...and
overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Humidity will also drop back
down a bit...with dew points in the mid to upper 60s Tue and Wed,
then into the lower 60s going into the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A shield of showers will affect most of our terminals into the
evening hours. Outside of the heavier showers conditions were
VFR at all terminals but with heavier showers restrictions in
visibility and ceilings will drop to at least MVFR at times
through at least 02z and briefly IFR. At KAVP, expect mainly VFR
except during times of thunderstorms between 19z and 03z where
conditions could drop to MVFR-IFR briefly. Confidence is high
that areas of MVFR/IFR will be associated with the heavier
showers/storms but is low on how much they impact each
terminal. Then after main shield of showers and storms passes
through by 02z-04z, expect rich boundary layer moisture to lead
to MVFR ceilings all terminals except KSYR between 07z-14z. We
expect a period of IFR at KBGM and KAVP between 11z and 15z.
Confidence is low this far out. After 14z-15z all terminals will
improve to VFR.

Winds will be mainly light southwesterly under 10 knots through
the period.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Monday... Mainly VFR, but fog
possible early Sunday and Monday mornings.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible in scattered
showers and storms.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NYZ024-045-046-
     055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DJN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

NYZ024-045-046-055-056-PAZ038-039-043-041915-
Chemung-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Bradford-Susquehanna-Wyoming-
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044-041915-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding of smaller
streams, creeks and poor drainage areas will be possible. Areas that
have already had heavy rainfall in the past week will be more
vulnerable. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

NYZ057-062-PAZ040-044-047-048-072-041915-
Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this evening may contain
gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1249 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NEW ALBANY              41.60N  76.44W
08/03/2018                   BRADFORD           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO BRIDGES CLOSED DUE TO DEBRIS

&&

HLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
132 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MASONVILLE              42.25N  75.37W
08/03/2018  M1.28 INCH       DELAWARE           NY   PUBLIC

            RAIN SINCE 7AM

&&

BJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

PAZ044-047-031845-
Luzerne PA-Lackawanna PA-
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHEASTERN LACKAWANNA AND
SOUTHEASTERN LUZERNE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 204 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Weatherly, or
just northeast of Hazleton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hazleton, Freeland, Bear Creek, Moscow, White Haven, Lehigh, Penn
Lake Park, Bear Creek Village, Jeddo and Gouldsboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 4098 7601 4136 7556 4137 7545 4126 7544
      4124 7549 4122 7552 4122 7554 4112 7563
      4113 7568 4109 7577 4105 7577 4103 7574
      4101 7574 4093 7595
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 226DEG 27KT 4097 7586

DAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
210 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

PAZ038-039-043-031915-
Wyoming PA-Susquehanna PA-Bradford PA-
210 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHWESTERN SUSQUEHANNA...
SOUTHEASTERN BRADFORD AND NORTHWESTERN WYOMING COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

At 210 PM EDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was located near
Sugar Run, or near Wyalusing, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Strong wind gusts will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rush, Springville, Dimock, Wilmot, Hollenback, Wyalusing, Meshoppen,
Laceyville, Le Raysville and Brushville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 7624 4154 7622 4156 7640 4158 7644
      4193 7611 4175 7584 4147 7624
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 221DEG 15KT 4158 7629

DAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
228 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

PAZ040-044-072-031915-
Southern Wayne PA-Northern Wayne PA-Lackawanna PA-
228 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...NORTHEASTERN LACKAWANNA AND
CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 227 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Carbondale,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carbondale, Archbald, Jessup, Honesdale, Damascus, Jermyn, Forest
City, Mayfield, South Canaan and Waymart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 7507 4146 7552 4155 7563 4164 7551
      4164 7546 4168 7547 4187 7521 4187 7517
      4185 7516 4184 7512 4182 7511 4181 7507
      4177 7510 4176 7506 4171 7505 4171 7507
      4162 7505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 229DEG 30KT 4154 7547

DAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

PAZ039-043-044-031945-
Wyoming PA-Susquehanna PA-Lackawanna PA-
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHERN SUSQUEHANNA...NORTH
CENTRAL LACKAWANNA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

At 306 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Carey, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Strong wind gusts will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clifford, Forest City, Springville, Dimock, Harford, Nicholson,
Vandling, Hop Bottom, Gibson and Glenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 4156 7599 4170 7605 4188 7566 4164 7546
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 242DEG 16KT 4163 7594

DAB