Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
444 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The warm and humid pattern continues with periodic showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall through Saturday
morning. Rain diminishes Saturday afternoon as an upper level
disturbance departs the region. Hot and humid weather is
expected Sunday into the beginning of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
Flash Flood Watch for most of the region excluding the western
Adirondacks until noon on Saturday.

As of 4PM... Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are progressing
northeast over the Mid-Hudson Valley. This area of convection is
expected to progress east into western New England over the next
few hours. Some flash flooding and thunderstorm wind damage has
been observed.

An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms over northeast PA will
move into the Mid-Hudson Valley later this evening. The heavier
storms will be capable of producing 1-3 inches of rain in a
short period of time and PWAT values are nearing 2 inches,
therefore a flash flood threat will continue. The strongest
thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds but
the severe threat should diminish as we begin to lose daytime
heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The area of rain and thunderstorms will continue to progress
northeast tonight through Saturday morning as the upper forcing
moves east. Locally heavy rain and the potential for flash
flooding will continue through Saturday morning. Hi-res
guidance suggests multiple lines of heavy rain and thunderstorms
over the Capital Region and Mid-Hudson Valley tonight with some
areas possibly seeing a couple inches of rain overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from west to east
Saturday morning into the early afternoon hours with conditions
becoming dry and pleasant by Saturday evening. Highs on
Saturday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

High pressure will build into the region on Sunday bringing
Sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 80s to most areas. Dew
points will be in the upper 60s to near 70 so heat indices will
be nearing heat advisory criteria. Mid level height rises, weak
high pressure, and ample sunshine will continue through Monday
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices
creeping into the upper 90s. Heat headlines may have to be
considered as we near this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will start out hot and muggy with a return to
wet weather once again on Tuesday into Wednesday. Drier weather is
expected again by Thursday with scattered showers across northern
areas on Friday.

On Tuesday a pre-frontal trough will cross the area with a cold
front crossing the region late Wednesday and Wednesday night. PWATs
rise to 1.5 to 2 inches on Tuesday but fall to between 1 to 1.5
inches by Wednesday, MLMUCAPES rise to 1500 to 4500 J/KG on Tuesday,
drop to 300 to 800 J/KG by late Tuesday night and rise to 1000 to
2000 J/KG on Wednesday, 0-6 km bulk shear is 25 to 35 kts Tuesday
through Wednesday, H7-H5 lapse rates 5.5 to 6.5 C/km Tuesday through
Wednesday, 0-3 km helicity 100 to 200 m2/s2 Tuesday, less than 100
m2/s2 Tuesday night and Wednesday. Main threat again Tuesday looks
to be flash flooding along with damaging wind gusts along with
perhaps some hail. Later Wednesday night and Thursday high pressure
will briefly build back into the region providing us with a mainly
dry period. This will be followed by a chance of showers across
northern areas on Friday as another cold front moves southeastward
towards the forecast area from the eastern Great Lakes.

Lows Monday night will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s with highs on
Tuesday in the upper 70s to around 90. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid 60s to around 70 with highs on Wednesday in the 70s to mid
80s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with
highs on Thursday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Heat Indices on Tuesday
will be in the upper 70s to mid 90s with the highest values southern
half of the forecast area in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and some thunderstorms will affect the terminals during
much of the 24 hour TAF period ending 18Z Saturday, as a very
moist air mass remains in place. Thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are expected this afternoon.

Will mention mainly IFR conditions for much of the period ending
late tonight with areas of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall. Conditions should gradually improve from west to east
during the morning on Saturday with an improvement to VFR
conditions by mid to late morning.

Winds will be mainly light and variable through today and
tonight. However, brief strong wind gusts are possible
associated with thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The warm and humid pattern continues with periodic
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall through
Saturday morning. Rain diminishes Saturday afternoon as an upper
level disturbance departs the region. Hot and humid weather is
expected Sunday into the beginning of the work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A deep southerly flow out of the subtropics will keep humid air
in place, with PWAT values around two inches. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue with rain heavy at times through
Saturday morning. The showers and thunderstorms will slowly
track east and south through Saturday. Rainfall amounts are
expected to be 1 to 3 inches over much of the region but
localized amounts over 5 inches are possible for all areas
excluding the southern Adirondacks.

This potential has resulted in the issuance of
a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for the entire area
excluding the southern Adirondacks.

Although significant rises are expected on larger rivers, heavy
rainfall at this time does not look to be widespread enough to
cause flooding of larger, main-stem rivers. However, quiet a few
rivers may reach action stage. Flooding of smaller streams and
creeks is possible through Saturday morning. Dry weather should
build in Saturday afternoon and linger into Monday. More wet
weather is expected by Tuesday lingering into Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NYZ038>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Cebulko/11
SHORT TERM...Cebulko
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...Cebulko/11
FIRE WEATHER...Cebulko/11
HYDROLOGY...Cebulko/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
504 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084-
VTZ013>015-041100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
504 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York excluding the southern
Adirondacks, and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

High temperatures will climb into the 80s to low 90s Sunday through
Tuesday with dew points nearing 70. This will result heat indices in
the 80s to upper 90s and heat advisories may be required for areas
mainly from the Capital District south into the Mid-Hudson Valley.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some
thunderstorms on Tuesday will have heavy rainfall and thunderstorms
on both days will have gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this evening through Saturday
morning. Spotters are requested to send reports of severe weather
including damaging wing gusts to the National Weather Service. In
addition spotters are requested to send reports of flash flooding and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

NYZ032-033-042-082-041100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Warren-Northern Fulton-
504 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southern Adirondacks of
east central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heavy rain is possible but flooding is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some
thunderstorms on Tuesday will have heavy rainfall and thunderstorms
on both days will have gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are requested to send rainfall reports to the National
Weather Service.

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