Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
444 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The warm and humid pattern continues with periodic showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall through Saturday
morning. Rain diminishes Saturday afternoon as an upper level
disturbance departs the region. Hot and humid weather is
expected Sunday into the beginning of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
Flash Flood Watch for most of the region excluding the western
Adirondacks until noon on Saturday.

As of 4PM... Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are progressing
northeast over the Mid-Hudson Valley. This area of convection is
expected to progress east into western New England over the next
few hours. Some flash flooding and thunderstorm wind damage has
been observed.

An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms over northeast PA will
move into the Mid-Hudson Valley later this evening. The heavier
storms will be capable of producing 1-3 inches of rain in a
short period of time and PWAT values are nearing 2 inches,
therefore a flash flood threat will continue. The strongest
thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds but
the severe threat should diminish as we begin to lose daytime
heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The area of rain and thunderstorms will continue to progress
northeast tonight through Saturday morning as the upper forcing
moves east. Locally heavy rain and the potential for flash
flooding will continue through Saturday morning. Hi-res
guidance suggests multiple lines of heavy rain and thunderstorms
over the Capital Region and Mid-Hudson Valley tonight with some
areas possibly seeing a couple inches of rain overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from west to east
Saturday morning into the early afternoon hours with conditions
becoming dry and pleasant by Saturday evening. Highs on
Saturday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

High pressure will build into the region on Sunday bringing
Sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 80s to most areas. Dew
points will be in the upper 60s to near 70 so heat indices will
be nearing heat advisory criteria. Mid level height rises, weak
high pressure, and ample sunshine will continue through Monday
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices
creeping into the upper 90s. Heat headlines may have to be
considered as we near this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will start out hot and muggy with a return to
wet weather once again on Tuesday into Wednesday. Drier weather is
expected again by Thursday with scattered showers across northern
areas on Friday.

On Tuesday a pre-frontal trough will cross the area with a cold
front crossing the region late Wednesday and Wednesday night. PWATs
rise to 1.5 to 2 inches on Tuesday but fall to between 1 to 1.5
inches by Wednesday, MLMUCAPES rise to 1500 to 4500 J/KG on Tuesday,
drop to 300 to 800 J/KG by late Tuesday night and rise to 1000 to
2000 J/KG on Wednesday, 0-6 km bulk shear is 25 to 35 kts Tuesday
through Wednesday, H7-H5 lapse rates 5.5 to 6.5 C/km Tuesday through
Wednesday, 0-3 km helicity 100 to 200 m2/s2 Tuesday, less than 100
m2/s2 Tuesday night and Wednesday. Main threat again Tuesday looks
to be flash flooding along with damaging wind gusts along with
perhaps some hail. Later Wednesday night and Thursday high pressure
will briefly build back into the region providing us with a mainly
dry period. This will be followed by a chance of showers across
northern areas on Friday as another cold front moves southeastward
towards the forecast area from the eastern Great Lakes.

Lows Monday night will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s with highs on
Tuesday in the upper 70s to around 90. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid 60s to around 70 with highs on Wednesday in the 70s to mid
80s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with
highs on Thursday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Heat Indices on Tuesday
will be in the upper 70s to mid 90s with the highest values southern
half of the forecast area in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and some thunderstorms will affect the terminals during
much of the 24 hour TAF period ending 18Z Saturday, as a very
moist air mass remains in place. Thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are expected this afternoon.

Will mention mainly IFR conditions for much of the period ending
late tonight with areas of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall. Conditions should gradually improve from west to east
during the morning on Saturday with an improvement to VFR
conditions by mid to late morning.

Winds will be mainly light and variable through today and
tonight. However, brief strong wind gusts are possible
associated with thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The warm and humid pattern continues with periodic
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall through
Saturday morning. Rain diminishes Saturday afternoon as an upper
level disturbance departs the region. Hot and humid weather is
expected Sunday into the beginning of the work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A deep southerly flow out of the subtropics will keep humid air
in place, with PWAT values around two inches. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue with rain heavy at times through
Saturday morning. The showers and thunderstorms will slowly
track east and south through Saturday. Rainfall amounts are
expected to be 1 to 3 inches over much of the region but
localized amounts over 5 inches are possible for all areas
excluding the southern Adirondacks.

This potential has resulted in the issuance of
a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for the entire area
excluding the southern Adirondacks.

Although significant rises are expected on larger rivers, heavy
rainfall at this time does not look to be widespread enough to
cause flooding of larger, main-stem rivers. However, quiet a few
rivers may reach action stage. Flooding of smaller streams and
creeks is possible through Saturday morning. Dry weather should
build in Saturday afternoon and linger into Monday. More wet
weather is expected by Tuesday lingering into Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NYZ038>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Cebulko/11
SHORT TERM...Cebulko
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...Cebulko/11
FIRE WEATHER...Cebulko/11
HYDROLOGY...Cebulko/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

CTZ001-013-NYZ032-033-042-064>066-082-041100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Northern Warren-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The southern Adirondacks, mid
Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into Saturday
morning. The main threat will be for locally heavy downpours. Urban
and small stream flooding is possible and isolated flash flooding
cannot be ruled out. There is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms, so some isolated storms could also produce damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heat indices may reach the mid-90s for portions of the Hudson Valley
Sunday through Tuesday. If confidence increases in reaching these
values, a Heat Advisory may be needed.

Finally, there is a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063-083-084-VTZ013>015-
041100-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts, southern
Vermont, and the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, Mohawk Valley, Lake
George Saratoga Region, Capital District, northern and central
Taconics, eastern Greene and western Columbia Counties in eastern New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, so some isolated
storms could also produce damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Heat indices may reach the mid-90s for portions of the Hudson Valley
Sunday through Tuesday. If confidence increases in reaching these
values, a Heat Advisory may be needed.

Finally, there is a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST WARDSBORO          43.03N  72.85W
08/03/2018                   WINDHAM            VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROAD FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1800398

VTK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEACON                  41.50N  73.97W
08/03/2018                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1800399

VTK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COXSACKIE               42.36N  73.81W
08/03/2018                   GREENE             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            STREET FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1800400

VTK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CATSKILL                42.21N  73.87W
08/03/2018                   GREENE             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            STREET FLOODING. FLOODING/DAMAGE TO ASSISTED LIVING
            FACILITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1800401

VTK

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
502 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

MAZ001-025-032200-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-
502 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...

At 502 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Chatham to near Great Barrington to
near Chester. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Otis and Middlefield around 510 PM EDT.
  Lenox around 515 PM EDT.
  Becket around 520 PM EDT.
  Pittsfield around 525 PM EDT.
  Hancock around 530 PM EDT.
  Savoy and New Ashford around 540 PM EDT.
  Adams and Hawley around 545 PM EDT.
  North Adams and Williamstown around 550 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include North Hancock,
Cheshire Harbor, Glendale, Lenox Dale, The Center At Lenox, Dalton,
Adams Junction, Zylonite, East Otis and Bowens Corners.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4239 7301 4238 7307 4233 7306 4231 7303
      4231 7300 4215 7303 4215 7307 4213 7307
      4209 7332 4216 7348 4275 7326 4274 7302
      4270 7302 4270 7295 4267 7300 4264 7295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 217DEG 39KT 4233 7360 4219 7327 4226 7301

DBT