Storm Warning 38, NWS Juneau, AK

996 
FZAK51 PAJK 140021
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-141700-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A gale force low over the northern inner channels will move
north into Canada early this evening while rapidly weakening. A
weak ridge will pass over the Panhandle from west to east
overnight. A gale force low over the southwest gulf will weaken
as it tracks northeast to the eastern gulf by Wednesday
afternoon.  

$$

PKZ011-141700-
Glacier Bay-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the evening. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain showers in the evening. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt 
late. Seas building to 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-141700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming S in the evening. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain showers in the evening.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ013-141700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming S 20 kt in the evening. Seas 5 
ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-141700-
Icy Strait-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming S in the evening, then becoming
E late. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-141700-
Cross Sound-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW in the evening, then 
becoming E late. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-141700-
Stephens Passage-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 20 kt by late evening. 
Gusts to 60 kt decreasing to 40 kt by late evening. Seas 9 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft by late evening. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-141700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 20 kt by late evening. Seas 
9 ft subsiding to 4 ft by late evening. Showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft in the
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-141700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt in the evening. Gusts 
to 60 kt decreasing to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the
evening. Near ocean entrances, seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft 
late. Showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Showers in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-141700-
Frederick Sound-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Seas 8 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft late. Showers.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog with
visibility 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-141700-
Sumner Strait-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the evening. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the evening. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening.
Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Showers in the
evening. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog with
visibility 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-141700-
Clarence Strait-
321 PM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
557 AM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...A rapidly developing low west of Haida Gwaii will
move north over the eastern Gulf Tuesday morning. Strong winds and
bands of heavy rain wrapped around the low will impact much of the
southern panhandle and central outer coast this morning through
early afternoon. Winds gusting to 45 mph are expected with a 60 kt
low level southerly jet residing over the southern panhandle. The
low quickly makes its way across the central outer coast and
northern inner channels Tuesday afternoon and eventually
dissipates tonight as it separates from its upper level support.

The broad upper trough extending over the NPAC will guide another
low into the southern Gulf early Wednesday. This low is not
expected to be as strong as today's as it drifts into the eastern
Gulf Wednesday. Showers will continue to spread, especially over
the southern panhandle, throughout the day. Model runs came into
fairly good agreement this morning, with the 06z NAM and REG
Canadian used to add detail to the winds Tuesday. Wednesday's
forecast remains pretty much on track, with only slight
adjustments to the placement of the low. Forecast confidence is
above average through today and tomorrow.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/A wet patterns remains in
place through the weekend. Thursday looks to begin with shower
activity associated with a remnant surface low pressure system in
place over the Panhandle. This system will dissipate through the
day with the associated shower activity diminishing as well. A
brief period of upper level ridging will build immediately behind
this system supporting the possibility of a brief dry period
between Thursday afternoon and Friday. The dry period will be
short lived as the next front arrives between late Friday
afternoon and Saturday morning. Some heavy precipitation
especially along the northeast gulf coast is expected out of the
this system with strong southerly flow supporting deep moisture
transportation into the area. As the upper level support shifts a
bit further east this weekend the front will push ashore the rest
of the Panhandle. A wet weekend is expected across the Panhandle.

As far as snowfall...there is not much support for low elevation
snowfall through the weekend, outside of the Highways near Haines
and Skagway. Strong southerly flow will warm temperatures to well
above freezing with snow levels rising back to between 3000 to
5000ft along the outer coast.

Overall forecast confidence is average with large spread between
model ensembles as well as poor run to run consistency.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ033-035-036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-032-034-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

DDH/JB

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