Gale Warning 254, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
557 AM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...A rapidly developing low west of Haida Gwaii will
move north over the eastern Gulf Tuesday morning. Strong winds and
bands of heavy rain wrapped around the low will impact much of the
southern panhandle and central outer coast this morning through
early afternoon. Winds gusting to 45 mph are expected with a 60 kt
low level southerly jet residing over the southern panhandle. The
low quickly makes its way across the central outer coast and
northern inner channels Tuesday afternoon and eventually
dissipates tonight as it separates from its upper level support.

The broad upper trough extending over the NPAC will guide another
low into the southern Gulf early Wednesday. This low is not
expected to be as strong as today's as it drifts into the eastern
Gulf Wednesday. Showers will continue to spread, especially over
the southern panhandle, throughout the day. Model runs came into
fairly good agreement this morning, with the 06z NAM and REG
Canadian used to add detail to the winds Tuesday. Wednesday's
forecast remains pretty much on track, with only slight
adjustments to the placement of the low. Forecast confidence is
above average through today and tomorrow.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/A wet patterns remains in
place through the weekend. Thursday looks to begin with shower
activity associated with a remnant surface low pressure system in
place over the Panhandle. This system will dissipate through the
day with the associated shower activity diminishing as well. A
brief period of upper level ridging will build immediately behind
this system supporting the possibility of a brief dry period
between Thursday afternoon and Friday. The dry period will be
short lived as the next front arrives between late Friday
afternoon and Saturday morning. Some heavy precipitation
especially along the northeast gulf coast is expected out of the
this system with strong southerly flow supporting deep moisture
transportation into the area. As the upper level support shifts a
bit further east this weekend the front will push ashore the rest
of the Panhandle. A wet weekend is expected across the Panhandle.

As far as snowfall...there is not much support for low elevation
snowfall through the weekend, outside of the Highways near Haines
and Skagway. Strong southerly flow will warm temperatures to well
above freezing with snow levels rising back to between 3000 to
5000ft along the outer coast.

Overall forecast confidence is average with large spread between
model ensembles as well as poor run to run consistency.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ033-035-036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-032-034-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

DDH/JB

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