Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

434 
WWAK41 PAFG 200850
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1150 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018


AKZ203-201500-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180120T0900Z/
/O.EXB.PAFG.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180121T1500Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
1150 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chill 
  values to be as low as 50 below.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Now to 6 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 5 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ204-201500-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180120T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
1150 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Travel will be very 
  dangerous to impossible. Additional snow accumulations of up 
  to two inches are expected. Wind chill values to 55 below are 
  also expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Saturday. Blizzard conditions will continue 
  into early Saturday morning. Very cold wind chill values will 
  develop as temperatures cool this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is likely. Cold wind chills will cause 
  frostbite in as little as 5 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ206-201500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180121T0300Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
1150 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Near blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very 
  dangerous to impossible. Very cold wind chill values of around 
  50 below are also expected.

* WHERE...Northeastern Brooks Range.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM Saturday. Near blizzard conditions will 
  continue into tonight before improving. Very cold wind chill 
  values will persist into tomorrow afternoon and then warm as 
  winds dissipate.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow that will reduce 
  visibility to one quarter mile or less at times. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is likely. Cold wind chill values will 
  cause frostbite in as little as 5 minutes to exposed flesh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe
winter weather conditions are occurring. This will make travel
very hazardous or impossible. The latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ201-201500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180121T0300Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
1150 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chill 
  values to be as low as 50 below.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...Now to 6 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 5 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ202-201500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180121T0300Z/
Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Barrow, Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
1150 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chill 
  values to be as low as 50 below.

* WHERE...Northern Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...Now to 6 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 5 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ205-201500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180121T0300Z/
Northwestern Brooks Range-
Including Singiluk and Umiat
1150 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chill 
  values to be as low as 50 below.

* WHERE...Northwestern Brooks Range.

* WHEN...Now to 6 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 5 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

191 
WWAK41 PAFG 201245
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
345 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018


AKZ204-210300-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180120T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0016.180120T1245Z-180121T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
345 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow, blowing snow and very cold wind chills occurring.
  Plan on difficult travel conditions. In addition, areas of poor
  visibility are expected. Additional snow accumulations of up to
  one inch are expected. Expect wind chill values to be as low as
  50 below.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Cold wind chills as low as
  50 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 5 minutes to
  exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ206-210300-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180121T0300Z/
/O.EXA.PAFG.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180121T1500Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
345 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chill 
  values to be as low as 50 below.

* WHERE...Northeastern Brooks Range.

* WHEN...Now to 6 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 5 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ201-210300-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180121T1500Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
345 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chill 
  values to be as low as 50 below.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...Now to 6 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 5 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ202-210300-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180121T1500Z/
Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Barrow, Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
345 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chill 
  values to be as low as 50 below.

* WHERE...Northern Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...Now to 6 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 5 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ205-210300-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180121T1500Z/
Northwestern Brooks Range-
Including Singiluk and Umiat
345 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chill values
  to be as low as 50 below through the Northwest Brooks Range
  passes.

* WHERE...Northwestern Brooks Range Passes.

* WHEN...Now to 6 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 5 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ203-210300-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-180121T1500Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
345 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chill 
  values to be as low as 50 below.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Now to 6 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 5 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
454 AM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Snow, blowing snow, low wind chill values and deep cold on tap as
winter returns to northern Alaska.

The 00z model package initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread remains minimal in the the short range and is reasonable
in the mid range. Model spread remains large in the extended range
with over 400 mile differences on the position of large and cold
upper level low and attending trough axis by wednesday of next
week. The large spread in the position of these features will have
a significant impact on sensible weather especially over the
western and central interior where cloud cover or lack there of
will moderate temperatures keeping minimum temperatures in the 20s
and 30s below or the lack of clouds will allow temperatures to
fall into the 30s and 40s below. Opted to take middle of the road
solution at this time with cloud cover and temperatures in the
long range.

Ongoing blizzard on the eastern North Slope expected to continue
into Saturday as cold arctic high pressure builds over the
western North Slope and a low moving north over the McKenzie
Delta increases the gradient to produce 60 mph wind gusts over the
eastern North Slope. Winter Weather Advisories for snow and
blowing snow on the north slope have been updated and extended to
include low wind chill values to 55 below zero as a much colder
airmass from Siberia moves south and east over the western north
slope and western interior today and over the rest of the north
slope tonight and Saturday as well as the central interior
Saturday night and Sunday. Periods of light snow are expected to
continue along a stalled front over the central interior with
generally 1 to 2 inches of snow expected through tonight and again
on Saturday as various weak upper level waves interact with the
stalled frontal system. Additional light snow is expected over the
interior as the cold airmass moves south and east and interacts
with the stalled front and eventually pushes the front into the
eastern interior.

Much colder temperatures are expected to move south and east out
of Siberia and over the western North Slope, the west coast and
western interior today, and over the rest of the North Slope and
central interior Saturday and Saturday night. The 850 mb
temperature was around 8 below on the 12z sounding over Fairbanks
this morning. 850 mb temperatures will continue to fall over the
next several days with 17 below expected Saturday morning and 23
below at 850 mb expected Sunday morning and around 20 below
expected monday morning. Model differences on the position of the
core of the cold airmass results in 850 mb temperatures between
16 below and 26 below by Wednesday of next week over Fairbanks.
850 mb temperatures in this range and combined with 1000 mb to 500
mb thickness values in the 495 dm to 492 dm range would support
30s and 40s below with a lack of clouds or in the 20s to 30s below
with clouds. The models differ on how long the cold airmass
remains over the interior with the Canadian and ECMWF having the
cold air retreat to the west as warmer air moves north into the
central and eastern interior while the GFS keep the cold airmass
entrenched over the interior through next weekend. Continue to
monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC JAN 18