Gale Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

645 
FZAK51 PAFG 192342
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-201515-
242 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1005 mb low northeast of Barrow will continue to weaken as it 
tracks northeast into the Arctic. Siberian high pressure 
infiltrating across the Chukchi Sea will create a tight pressure 
gradient along the northeast coast until early Sat and continue 
to weaken through Sun.

$$

PKZ225-201515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
242 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-201515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
242 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. VSBY 1 
NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-201515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
242 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 5 kt. 
.MON...S winds 5 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 5 kt. 
.WED...N winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-201515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
242 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY one
quarter NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 5 kt. 
.MON...W winds 5 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-201515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
242 PM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 40 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY
one quarter NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jan 18

704 
FZAK51 PAFG 201302
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
402 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-210330-
402 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1008 mb low 250 NM north of Barrow will continue to weaken as 
it tracks northeast into the Arctic. A 1034 mb high pressure
system currently centered near St Matthew Island will drift 
northwest and be absorbed by a 1036 mb high pressure system
over Siberia.

$$

PKZ225-210330-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
402 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-210330-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
402 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-210330-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
402 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 5 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 5 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-210330-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
402 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 5 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 5 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-210330-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
402 AM AKST Sat Jan 20 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

CCC Jan 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
218 PM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
Broad long wave trough over the Bering Sea and mainland Alaska
will progress east with the long wave trough moving over mainland
Alaska Sat, then deepening through the middle of next week.
This means that the pattern is transitioning from a wet and much
warmer and normal pattern now to near normal temperatures on the
weekend, much colder than normal next week.

A low aloft near Barrow will move north tonight. Weather
associated with this addressed in surface section below.

A second low aloft near Yellowknife will move to Old Crow by 3pm
Fri and to near Barter Island Fri night. This will bring light
snow to NE Alaska.

A short wave trough along the West Coast of Alaska will move to
Point Lay to Bethel by 3am Fri, to Barrow to McGrath by 3pm Fri,
to Deadhorse to Minchumina by 3am Sat, and to Deadhorse to Denali
by 3pm Sat, then quasi-stationary into Sun. Cloudy skies with flurries
and light snow will occur east of the short wave, with precip
ending and skies clearing west of the trough.

Surface...
A 996 mb low near Barrow will move to 100 nm north of Barrow by
3am Fri as a 1004 mb low, to 300 nm north of Deadhorse by 3pm
Fri as a 1009 mb low, and to 400 nm north of Barter Island by 3am
Sat as a 1012 mb low. An occluded front wrapped around this low
then stretching to Inuvik will move north of the Arctic Coast
tonight. Light snow will occur with the low and along the occluded
front. Winds have turned SW along the coast east of Barrow.

An occluded front in the NW Territory will move over NE Alaska
tonight and then dissipate in place through Sat. This will bring
1-2 inches of snow to NE Alaska.

An arctic cold front stretching from the low to Atigun Pass to
Minchumina will move to Barter Island to Denali by 3am Fri,
to Inuvik to Isabell Pass by 3pm Fri, to Dawson to Mentasta Pass
by 3am Sat, and then east of the Alcan Border Sat. Expect light
snow along and west of this front. Expect 2-4 inches Tonight
through Sat over the Eastern Interior. Snow will end west of the
trough aloft mentioned above. Expect West winds 30g40 mph and low
visibility in blowing snow along the front over NW Alaska and the
North Slope along with the front. Issuing WWA for zones 201 202
203 204 206 and 210 for this. Expect north winds 30g40 and blowing
snow with low visibility to develop in Brooks Range passes late
night Fri and continue into Sat. Will issue WWA for for this in
zone 218 as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Vertically stacked low near Barrow initialize on models a bit
southwest of where sat pic indicates. RAOBs at Barrow and
Kotzebue missing at 12z this am could be reason for this. This
means that in short term the vertically stacked low will be
slightly northeast of model locations through this evening and
that winds and snow will spread across Arctic Coast a bit more
quickly than models indicate, with winds in NW AK and North Slope
a bit stronger than models indicate through this evening as well.

Models similar through Fri, then the ECMF moves a low into NW
Alaska more quickly than the GFS and NAM. Favor the GFS from Fri
into weekend. From Mon through next weekend models show long wave
moving over mainland AK, though the ECMF is weaker and much
further east with the trough from the middle of next week onward.
At this time favor the GFS ensemble from Mon through next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ210-
AKZ218.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 18