Small Craft Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
112 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet pattern continues for northern Alaska.

Aloft at 500 mb the persistent high pressure ridge that extends
form Baja California to the Beaufort Sea will slightly retrograde
over the Yukon as a shortwave low currently over south central
Alaska will move north over the interior tonight and over the
Brooks Range Thursday. An upper level ridge builds rapidly north
over the central interior Friday as a powerful upper level low
moves north into the southern Aleutians.

Expect light snow with generally less than an inch to fall over
the central and western interior tonight and Thursday morning as
the upper level low moves north out of the interior Thursday.
Mostly cloudy skies tomorrow will diminish and become partly
cloudy over much of the southern interior Friday morning and over
much of the central and eastern interior Friday night and into
Saturday. The ridge will continue to build north and east and will
move over northeast Alaska Saturday.

A deep low pressure system is anticipated to move into the
central Bering Sea Thursday night and Friday. Models continue to
struggle on a solution for the storm track and strength. At this
time we can expect southerly flow and a northward progressing
front to impact St Lawrence Island beginning Friday morning and
the Y-K Delta and Southern Seward Peninsula Friday afternoon.
Blowing snow on the Seward Peninsula and mixed precipitation is
possible for the Y-K Delta. St. Lawrence Island could also see
wind gusts in excess of 50 mph.

Southerly winds are expected to pick up over the northern
foothills of the Alaska Range and through the Alaska Range passes
late Friday and Saturday as the front wrapping around the low in
the Bering sea moves north over the Alaska Range. Winds are
expected to remain sub advisory at this time.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread is reasonable in the short range but increases substantially
in the middle range as well as the long range.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

CCC JAN 18