Brisk Wind Advisory 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
144 PM AKST Thu Jan 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The Interior and North Slope remain quiet while winds and some
light snow impact the West Coast, Bering Srait and St Lawrence
Island.

Aloft at 500 mb a high pressure ridge that extends from Baja
California north and northwest to the Yukon and Beaufort Sea will
dominate the weather over the Interior and North Slope tomorrow
and into the weekend as a high pressure system over the northern
Pacific merges with the Baja to Beaufort ridge. A weak upper level
low currently over the interior will continue to bring clouds and
flurries over the central interior through tonight before the low
moves south and east into the Gulf of Alaska. A 500 dam low over
the central Aleutians will continue to deepen to around 494 dam as
it moves north into to the central Bering Sea on Friday and then
west into the western Bering Sea as the strong ridge over the
interior holds fast through the weekend.

Mostly cloudy conditions along with occasional flurries and light
snow dominate the interior and north slope today but should
transition to party cloudy conditions tonight as the high over the
northern pacific moves north over the area. Inversions over the
interior valleys will worsen tonight as snow diminishes and skies
clear. Strong inversions will likely continue Friday and into the
weekend as skies clear and light winds dominate under the strong
upper level ridge.

Strong winds are expected to develop tomorrow over the Bering Sea
in particular St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast as
an occluded front moves north into the central Bering Sea. A
strong gradient develops over the central and northern Bering Sea
as the 950 mb low squeezes north along a 1020 mb high pressure
system north of Alaska. The low moves west late Friday and
Saturday and the front stretches and weakens as it moves north
into the YK Delta and St Lawrence Island. Winds are expected to
remain just below warning levels and combined with relatively
warm temperatures and limited falling snow opted to go with
strong wind headlines reduced visibility in lieu of warning
headlines. for zones surrounding Norton Sound, the lower YK Delta
Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island. Will need to monitor as the
ECMWF on previous runs develops a secondary low further east over
the eastern Bering Sea which both increases wind and
precipitation in these areas. The trend in the models especially
the GFS and NAM has been to only develop the a centralized low
over the western Bering Sea vs the ECMWF developing a low further
east. Continue to monitor.

The 12z model run initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. The
model package is in better agreement today vs yesterday on the
track and strength of the low in the Bering Sea.

In the long range a series of deep lows move north and east into
the central Aleutians and southern Bering Sea while the upper
level ridge remains over and just east of Alaska. Periods of
storminess with winds and snow will continue over the west coast
and Bering Strait while the interior will continue to to be
dominated by the large upper level ridge and strong valley
inversions.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CCC JAN 18