Brisk Wind Advisory 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

778 
FZAK51 PAFG 051244
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-060300-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1009 mb low over the Beaufort Sea will move E. A ridge of high 
pressure lies from a 1020 mb center 200 NE of Wrangel Island over 
the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast and will move to 400 nm N of
Wrangel Island with ridging extending SE to MacKenzie Bay by Sat 
morning. Low pressure over the Bering Sea will create a strong 
pressure gradient over the Chukchi Sea tonight into Mon. The high 
will slowly move to 400 nm N of Point Barrow by Sun night.

$$

PKZ225-060300-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-060300-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-060300-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-060300-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-060300-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

.TODAY...W winds 5 kt becoming N. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

SDB Jan 18

424 
FZAK51 PAFG 052238
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
138 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-061515-
138 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A ridge of high pressure stretches from 1020 mb center 200 NE of 
Wrangel Island to the Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska. This ridge 
will slowly move to the east tonight and Saturday. Low pressure over
the Bering Sea will create a strong pressure gradient over the 
Chukchi Sea tonight into Mon.

$$

PKZ225-061515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
138 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-061515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
138 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-061515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
138 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 5 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-061515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
138 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-061515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
138 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

Jan 18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
144 PM AKST Thu Jan 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The Interior and North Slope remain quiet while winds and some
light snow impact the West Coast, Bering Srait and St Lawrence
Island.

Aloft at 500 mb a high pressure ridge that extends from Baja
California north and northwest to the Yukon and Beaufort Sea will
dominate the weather over the Interior and North Slope tomorrow
and into the weekend as a high pressure system over the northern
Pacific merges with the Baja to Beaufort ridge. A weak upper level
low currently over the interior will continue to bring clouds and
flurries over the central interior through tonight before the low
moves south and east into the Gulf of Alaska. A 500 dam low over
the central Aleutians will continue to deepen to around 494 dam as
it moves north into to the central Bering Sea on Friday and then
west into the western Bering Sea as the strong ridge over the
interior holds fast through the weekend.

Mostly cloudy conditions along with occasional flurries and light
snow dominate the interior and north slope today but should
transition to party cloudy conditions tonight as the high over the
northern pacific moves north over the area. Inversions over the
interior valleys will worsen tonight as snow diminishes and skies
clear. Strong inversions will likely continue Friday and into the
weekend as skies clear and light winds dominate under the strong
upper level ridge.

Strong winds are expected to develop tomorrow over the Bering Sea
in particular St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast as
an occluded front moves north into the central Bering Sea. A
strong gradient develops over the central and northern Bering Sea
as the 950 mb low squeezes north along a 1020 mb high pressure
system north of Alaska. The low moves west late Friday and
Saturday and the front stretches and weakens as it moves north
into the YK Delta and St Lawrence Island. Winds are expected to
remain just below warning levels and combined with relatively
warm temperatures and limited falling snow opted to go with
strong wind headlines reduced visibility in lieu of warning
headlines. for zones surrounding Norton Sound, the lower YK Delta
Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island. Will need to monitor as the
ECMWF on previous runs develops a secondary low further east over
the eastern Bering Sea which both increases wind and
precipitation in these areas. The trend in the models especially
the GFS and NAM has been to only develop the a centralized low
over the western Bering Sea vs the ECMWF developing a low further
east. Continue to monitor.

The 12z model run initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. The
model package is in better agreement today vs yesterday on the
track and strength of the low in the Bering Sea.

In the long range a series of deep lows move north and east into
the central Aleutians and southern Bering Sea while the upper
level ridge remains over and just east of Alaska. Periods of
storminess with winds and snow will continue over the west coast
and Bering Strait while the interior will continue to to be
dominated by the large upper level ridge and strong valley
inversions.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CCC JAN 18