Small Craft Advisory 200, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
543 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...
An active, stormy week is expected to continue across the Bering
Sea and West Coast as several systems make their way across the
area. Elsewhere it will continue to relatively quiet with seasonal
weather expected across much of Interior Alaska. Latest model
solutions are in good agreement through late Wednesday, then
begin to diverge Thursday and Friday as the next Bering Sea storm
moves across the Bering Sea.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a strong low centered over the Gulf of Anadyr
will east today to be over St Lawrence Island by late this
afternoon, then will weaken into a trough as it moves over the
West Coast Wednesday morning, and east across Interior Alaska and
North Slope Wednesday and Thursday. An upper level ridge over
Interior Alaska will be pushed east by the aforementioned low into
western Canada over the next couple of days. A strong shortwave
will move from Kamchatka Peninsula this evening and strengthen
into a strong low in the western Bering Sea tonight into early
Wednesday, and then will move east across the Bering Sea through
Friday.

At the surface, a 988 mb low over St Michael Island this morning
will move northeast to be over the Bering Strait early Wednesday
morning, and then will weaken as it moves east inland over Seward
Peninsula. A 988 mb low will move into the western Bering Sea
Wednesday morning and then will move east across the Bering Sea
through early Friday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...The strong storm out in the
Bering Sea will bring a variety of hazards including coastal and
winter hazards. South to southeast winds will develop this morning
as the main low moves closer to St Lawrence Island with the winds
becoming southwest as the low moves over the Seward Peninsula this
evening. Will see water levels in Norton Sound and along the Yukon
Delta coast peaking later today between 4 and 6 feet. Although the
period of strong winds will be short in duration, the combination
of elevated water levels and sustained south winds is still
expected to lead to high surf with the potential for minor
flooding along the Yukon Delta Coast. Have decided to replace the
Coastal Flood Watch with a Coastal Flood Advisory for zone 214.
Moisture will continue to stream in the southwest flow over the
West Coast and the Northwest Interior over the next 24 hours
bringing periods of heavy snow to the areas under Winter Storm
Warnings. Along with the heavy snow, blowing snow will also be an
issue for zones 207 and 209 where strong southeast winds will
continue into late tonight before weakening tomorrow morning.
Could potentially see another round of coastal and winter hazards.
Models are still in disagreement regarding the timing, strength,
and track of this second low. Will have to watch the next strong
Bering Sea storm that is progged to move towards the West Coast
later in the week.

Eastern and Central Interior...Increasing clouds over the next
couple days as the remnants of the old Bering Sea low moves
inland towards the area. Chance for light snow as the upper level
shortwave moves over the area Thursday. Temperatures across the
area will moderate some through the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...South to southeast offshore flow
has pushed the stratus and fog offshore. As this offshore flow
persists, especially over the eastern Arctic Coast, mostly clear
skies will persist. Moisture associated with the Bering Sea storm
will push north over the western Arctic Coast this evening and
bring a period of light snow through Tuesday with up to an inch of
snow possible. Chances for light snow will continue Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A second strong Bering Sea
storm is advertised to move out into the western Bering Sea
Wednesday and will move east towards the West Coast Thursday and
Friday. There are significant model differences with the track and
strength of the low as it moves in the eastern Bering Sea Thursday
and Friday with one taking a northern track across St Lawrence
Island, while the other taking a southern route where the low
travels over St Matthew Island and towards the Yukon Delta. If the
eventual track is the northern route, strong south to southwest
winds over a a long fetch for an extended period of time with the
potential for elevated water levels along the south and west
facing shorelines of the Bering Strait, St Lawrence Island, Norton
Sound, and the Yukon Delta Coast. If the storm passes to the
south, the strongest winds will remain south of the area with east
to northeast winds likely. Residents in these areas should
continue to monitor the developing situation for the latest
forecasts and possible statements. Please go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks for updates and additional details.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ214.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

LTH NOV 18