Coastal Flood Statement 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

053 
WHAK49 PAFG 062358 AAB
CFWAFG

Coastal Hazard Message...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
258 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

AKZ214-071400-
/O.CON.PAFG.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-181107T1800Z/
Yukon Delta-
Including Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, 
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, 
and Pitkas Point
258 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...Along the Coast and at villages in the Yukon River 
  Delta.

* COASTAL FLOODING...A storm surge is expected to push water 
  levels to 4 feet above the normal highest tide line.

* TIMING...High water is expected continue through early 
  Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding is possible along the coast and at 
  villages along the Yukon Delta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

$$

AKZ211-071400-
/O.CON.PAFG.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Including Nome, White Mountain, and Golovin
258 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WAVE AND SURF...High surf will push waves to the top of the 
  beach. Driftwood and debris could wash above the top of the 
  beach. Minor flooding of low areas near the beach is possible.

* TIMING...High surf is expected to continue through the overnight
  hours. Surf will diminish Wednesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that localized beach erosion is
expected. Precautions should be taken to protect property.

&&

$$

AKZ212-071400-
/O.CON.PAFG.SU.Y.0009.181107T0000Z-181107T2100Z/
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
Including Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, 
and Shaktoolik
258 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WAVE AND SURF...High surf will push waves to the top of the 
  beach. Driftwood and debris could wash above the top of the 
  beach. Minor flooding of low areas near the beach is possible.

* TIMING...High surf is expected to continue through the overnight 
  hours. Surf will diminish late Wednesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that localized beach erosion is
expected. Precautions should be taken to protect property.

&&

$$

AKZ207-071400-
/O.CON.PAFG.CF.S.0002.000000T0000Z-181107T1400Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
258 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...Lagoon side flooding at Kivalina...

* LOCATION...Kivalina

* COASTAL FLOODING...2 to 3 feet above the normal highest tide 
  line.

* TIMING...The height of the event will be from 9pm through 3am.

* IMPACTS...Beach erosion and minor coastal flooding on the 
  lagoon side of Kivalina and along the immediate shore line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A coastal flood statement means that localized beach erosion is
expected on the lagoon side. Precautions should be taken to
protect property.

$$

505 
WHAK49 PAFG 071058
CFWAFG

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
158 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

AKZ214-072100-
/O.EXT.PAFG.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/
Yukon Delta-
Including Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, 
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, 
and Pitkas Point
158 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* LOCATION...Along the Coast and at villages in the Yukon River 
  Delta.

* COASTAL FLOODING...A storm surge is expected to push water 
  levels to 4 feet above the normal highest tide line.

* TIMING...Water levels will gradually decrease through late this
  morning. 

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding is possible along the coast and at 
  villages along the Yukon Delta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

$$

AKZ211-072100-
/O.CON.PAFG.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Including Nome, White Mountain, and Golovin
158 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WAVE AND SURF...High surf will push waves to the top of the 
  beach. Driftwood and debris could wash above the top of the 
  beach. Minor flooding of low areas near the beach is possible.

* TIMING...High surf is expected to dissipate later this morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that localized beach erosion is
expected. Precautions should be taken to protect property.

&&

$$

AKZ212-072100-
/O.CON.PAFG.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
Including Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, 
and Shaktoolik
158 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WAVE AND SURF...High surf will push waves to the top of the 
  beach. Driftwood and debris could wash above the top of the 
  beach. Minor flooding of low areas near the beach is possible.

* TIMING...High surf is expected to dissipate later this morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that localized beach erosion is
expected. Precautions should be taken to protect property.

&&

$$

AKZ207-072100-
/O.EXT.PAFG.CF.S.0002.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
158 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...LAGOON SIDE FLOODING AT KIVALINA...

* LOCATION...Kivalina

* COASTAL FLOODING...2 to 3 feet above the normal highest tide 
  line.

* TIMING...Water levels will gradually decrease this morning as
  winds dissipate. 

* IMPACTS...Beach erosion and minor coastal flooding on the 
  lagoon side of Kivalina and along the immediate shore line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A coastal flood statement means that localized beach erosion is
expected on the lagoon side. Precautions should be taken to
protect property.

$$

453 
WHAK49 PAFG 072107
CFWAFG

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1207 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

AKZ214-072215-
/O.EXP.PAFG.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/
Yukon Delta-
Including Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, 
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, 
and Pitkas Point
1207 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

AKZ211-212-072215-
/O.EXP.PAFG.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
Including Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet, Stebbins, 
St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, and Shaktoolik
1207 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

AKZ207-072215-
/O.EXP.PAFG.CF.S.0002.000000T0000Z-181107T2100Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
1207 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...COASTAL HAZARD STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

Strong winds have diminished across the area. There are no longer
minor coastal flood impacts on the eastern side of Kivalina.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
543 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...
An active, stormy week is expected to continue across the Bering
Sea and West Coast as several systems make their way across the
area. Elsewhere it will continue to relatively quiet with seasonal
weather expected across much of Interior Alaska. Latest model
solutions are in good agreement through late Wednesday, then
begin to diverge Thursday and Friday as the next Bering Sea storm
moves across the Bering Sea.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a strong low centered over the Gulf of Anadyr
will east today to be over St Lawrence Island by late this
afternoon, then will weaken into a trough as it moves over the
West Coast Wednesday morning, and east across Interior Alaska and
North Slope Wednesday and Thursday. An upper level ridge over
Interior Alaska will be pushed east by the aforementioned low into
western Canada over the next couple of days. A strong shortwave
will move from Kamchatka Peninsula this evening and strengthen
into a strong low in the western Bering Sea tonight into early
Wednesday, and then will move east across the Bering Sea through
Friday.

At the surface, a 988 mb low over St Michael Island this morning
will move northeast to be over the Bering Strait early Wednesday
morning, and then will weaken as it moves east inland over Seward
Peninsula. A 988 mb low will move into the western Bering Sea
Wednesday morning and then will move east across the Bering Sea
through early Friday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...The strong storm out in the
Bering Sea will bring a variety of hazards including coastal and
winter hazards. South to southeast winds will develop this morning
as the main low moves closer to St Lawrence Island with the winds
becoming southwest as the low moves over the Seward Peninsula this
evening. Will see water levels in Norton Sound and along the Yukon
Delta coast peaking later today between 4 and 6 feet. Although the
period of strong winds will be short in duration, the combination
of elevated water levels and sustained south winds is still
expected to lead to high surf with the potential for minor
flooding along the Yukon Delta Coast. Have decided to replace the
Coastal Flood Watch with a Coastal Flood Advisory for zone 214.
Moisture will continue to stream in the southwest flow over the
West Coast and the Northwest Interior over the next 24 hours
bringing periods of heavy snow to the areas under Winter Storm
Warnings. Along with the heavy snow, blowing snow will also be an
issue for zones 207 and 209 where strong southeast winds will
continue into late tonight before weakening tomorrow morning.
Could potentially see another round of coastal and winter hazards.
Models are still in disagreement regarding the timing, strength,
and track of this second low. Will have to watch the next strong
Bering Sea storm that is progged to move towards the West Coast
later in the week.

Eastern and Central Interior...Increasing clouds over the next
couple days as the remnants of the old Bering Sea low moves
inland towards the area. Chance for light snow as the upper level
shortwave moves over the area Thursday. Temperatures across the
area will moderate some through the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...South to southeast offshore flow
has pushed the stratus and fog offshore. As this offshore flow
persists, especially over the eastern Arctic Coast, mostly clear
skies will persist. Moisture associated with the Bering Sea storm
will push north over the western Arctic Coast this evening and
bring a period of light snow through Tuesday with up to an inch of
snow possible. Chances for light snow will continue Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A second strong Bering Sea
storm is advertised to move out into the western Bering Sea
Wednesday and will move east towards the West Coast Thursday and
Friday. There are significant model differences with the track and
strength of the low as it moves in the eastern Bering Sea Thursday
and Friday with one taking a northern track across St Lawrence
Island, while the other taking a southern route where the low
travels over St Matthew Island and towards the Yukon Delta. If the
eventual track is the northern route, strong south to southwest
winds over a a long fetch for an extended period of time with the
potential for elevated water levels along the south and west
facing shorelines of the Bering Strait, St Lawrence Island, Norton
Sound, and the Yukon Delta Coast. If the storm passes to the
south, the strongest winds will remain south of the area with east
to northeast winds likely. Residents in these areas should
continue to monitor the developing situation for the latest
forecasts and possible statements. Please go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks for updates and additional details.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ214.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

LTH NOV 18