High Wind Watch 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
612 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

DISCUSSION...

...Current Weather and Hazards...Minimal changes from yesterday
morning for most of Northern Alaska. Light snow continues to be
the story for the West Coast and Western Interior. Only exception
is Tin City, where north winds are sustained at 40 mph with
quarter mile or less visibility. Quiet weather in the Eastern
Interior, with the only weather of note being scattered snow
showers north and west of Fairbanks. The story on the North Slope
is low clouds and occasional lower visibilities.

...Aloft...Long wave trough axis that is currently located
through the Bering Strait will continue to persist, with an
embedded short wave bringing light snow centered over the Seward
Peninsula today. As the long wave trough begins to lift to the
northeast tonight, chances for snow will increase further north,
into Kotzebue Sound west to Shungnak. A second shortwave trough
will move through the Western Interior tonight, bringing more
measurable snowfall to the Western Interior late tonight. This
trough will continue to move northeast through Saturday night,
bringing snow to the North Slope and Eastern Interior. A ridge
behind this front will move into Northern Alaska behind this
shortwave by Saturday night. Models are trending the ridge weaker,
so cloud cover is expected to persist Saturday night and into
Sunday morning. Models showing a lot of variability with the next
upper level trough for Sunday, but the consensus will be impactful
weather along the West Coast.

...Surface...A weather front currently draped along the West
Coast, through the Brooks Range and into northern Canada expected
to persist through Friday night and then move east on Saturday. A
990 mb low pressure in Prince William Sound will continue to
weaken, with no impacts to northern Alaska. A 992 mb low pressure
near Sand Point will push to the northeast, bringing snow to the
Western Interior late tonight. High pressure begins to build into
the Western Interior behind the weather front by Saturday
afternoon. This surface high pressure will move quickly across
Interior Alaska and into Canada by Saturday night.

A strong low pressure moves into the Bering Sea tonight. Models
then begin to diverge on the development of another low pressure
Saturday afternoon. The GFS brings a 953 mb low pressure south of
St. Lawrence Island, while the NAM and ECMWF models do not
indicate any significant low pressure development by Sunday
afternoon. However, all models indicate 40 mph winds and snow to
the Yukon Delta north to St. Lawrence Island and east into Norton
Sound early Sunday morning, with the duration of these winds
still uncertain. This has potential for producing blizzard
conditions Sunday and will need to be watched. Additionally,
chinook winds through Windy and Isabel Passes will develop early
Sunday morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The sea ice extent will
result in no high water for the St. Lawrence coast despite the
strong winds and snow expected for Sunday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

AY DEC 18