Gale Warning 121, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Issued

Dec 29, 2018, 2:21 PM AKST (23:21 UTC)

Expired

Dec 30, 2018, 6:30 AM AKST

In force

16 hr

Issued by

NWS Fairbanks, AK

966 
FZAK52 PAFG 292321
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
221 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-301530-
221 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 943 mb low over the far western Aleutians will swing a powerful
weather front north across the eastern Bering Sea Sunday into 
Monday. A 955 mb low will move from the North Pacific into 
Bristol Bay Sunday evening, then move up the west coast,
reaching Norton Sound Monday morning at 965 mb.

$$

PKZ200-301530-
Norton Sound-
221 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 35 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-301530-
Dall Point to Wales-
221 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt increasing to 40 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.SUN...NE winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-301530-
Kotzebue Sound-
221 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt becoming E. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-301530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
221 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt becoming NE. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NE winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM
or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

Dec 18

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 29, 7:07 AM AKST, 7 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
707 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
ALoft...
A very deep long wave trough over the Bering Sea and NW Pacific
with a ridge over Western Canada will persist into early next
week. A series of strong short wave troughs will move north over
Northern AK over the next several days bringing periods of heavy
snow and blizzard conditions to the West Coast and Western
Interior and strong chinook winds to the Eastern Interior.

A strong short wave now over the Western Interior will move to
Point Lay to Denali this afternoon and then to Barrow to Eagle
tonight. Light snow east of the trough will drop 1 inch of snow.

Surface...
A very deep low near just west of Adak will move into the southern
Bering today. A frontal wave developing over the southeast Bering
today will move to the central Bering as a 954 mb low by 3am Sun.
to near St Matthew Is as a 960 m,b low by 3pm Sun and then drift
NW. This will bring NE gales to the Northern Bering and Norton
Sound by Sun am into Mon along with blizzard conditions and heavy
snow. Heavy snow will spread over the SW interior Sun into Mon as
well. Expect 6 inches of snow along the Coast with 6-10 inches
inland.

A Second frontal wave will move north to the YK Delta by 3am Mon
and to the Seward Pen by 3pm Mon. Expect more snow with this
feature.

Expect south winds gusting to 70 mph along the Alaska Range Sun
into Mon ahead of these systems.

Do not expect freezing precip anywhere other than the Alaska Range
Sun night into Mon. All models indicate Temps remaining below
freezing across the SE interior other than the Alaska Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft. GFS has features moving north
deepen more than other models. Given that the lows are deepening
in the Eastern Aleutians and Bristol Bay along a frontal system
well east of the anchoring low, it is highly out of the ordinary
that cold air flowing east across several thousand miles of the
North Pacific would still be cold enough to allow lows to bomb out
in this location. Given those reasons favor the ECMF solution,
which does not deepen the surface features as much as the NAM or
GFS Sun and Mon. This will have have significant impacts on
winds/snow/blowing snow locations and strength for Sun and Mon.

At the surface at 06Z, all models verify several mb too weak with
low just north of Demarcation Point, 4 mb too weak on the low near
Kotzebue, and also several mb too weak on the surface high near
Northway, and on the surface high over NE Russia. This will cause
west winds to be a few kt stronger today in zone 204 than models
indicate, stronger winds by 5 kt around Koztebue Sounds today, a
Tanana Valleys jet which is 5-10 kt strong that models indicate
for this am, and winds a bit stronger over the Bering Se than
models indicate today/tonight.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Blizzard conditons with NE winds 30-40kt and g50 kt in the Bering
Strait.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ216-AKZ217.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB DEC 18

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2018Every gale warning in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.