High Wind Warning 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

156 
WWAK72 PAFG 301441
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
541 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

AKZ227-310130-
/O.EXT.PAFG.HW.W.0017.181230T1500Z-181231T2100Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
541 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY...

* LOCATION...Alaska Range passes.

* WINDS...South winds gusts to 70 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will continue through Monday morning. The
  strongest winds are expected today and tonight. Winds area
  expected to decrease Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Loose items may be picked up and blown around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

397 
WWAK72 PAFG 302219
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
119 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

AKZ227-311500-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-181231T2100Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
119 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY...

* LOCATION...Alaska Range passes.

* WINDS...South winds gusts to 70 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will continue through Monday morning. 
  The strongest winds are expected today and tonight. Winds area 
  expected to decrease Monday morning. 

* IMPACTS...Loose items may be picked up and blown around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

914 
WWAK72 PAFG 311256
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

AKZ227-010300-
/O.EXT.PAFG.HW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190101T0900Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
356 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...Near Alaska Range passes.

* WINDS...South winds gusts to 70 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will diminish for a few hours this evening, then
  increase as another weather front moves across the range but
  winds will not be as strong.

* IMPACTS...Loose items may be picked up and blown around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

999 
WWAK72 PAFG 312311
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
211 PM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

AKZ227-010900-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190101T0900Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
211 PM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...Near Alaska Range passes.

* WINDS...South winds gusts to 70 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will diminish for a few hours this evening, 
  then increase as another weather front moves across the range 
  but winds will not be as strong. 

* IMPACTS...Loose items may be picked up and blown around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means hazardous high winds are occurring or
expected. Take precautions to protect life and prevent property
damage.

&&

$$

310 
WWAK72 PAFG 010455
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
755 PM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

AKZ227-010600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190101T0900Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
755 PM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

Winds have died down across the area.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
707 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
ALoft...
A very deep long wave trough over the Bering Sea and NW Pacific
with a ridge over Western Canada will persist into early next
week. A series of strong short wave troughs will move north over
Northern AK over the next several days bringing periods of heavy
snow and blizzard conditions to the West Coast and Western
Interior and strong chinook winds to the Eastern Interior.

A strong short wave now over the Western Interior will move to
Point Lay to Denali this afternoon and then to Barrow to Eagle
tonight. Light snow east of the trough will drop 1 inch of snow.

Surface...
A very deep low near just west of Adak will move into the southern
Bering today. A frontal wave developing over the southeast Bering
today will move to the central Bering as a 954 mb low by 3am Sun.
to near St Matthew Is as a 960 m,b low by 3pm Sun and then drift
NW. This will bring NE gales to the Northern Bering and Norton
Sound by Sun am into Mon along with blizzard conditions and heavy
snow. Heavy snow will spread over the SW interior Sun into Mon as
well. Expect 6 inches of snow along the Coast with 6-10 inches
inland.

A Second frontal wave will move north to the YK Delta by 3am Mon
and to the Seward Pen by 3pm Mon. Expect more snow with this
feature.

Expect south winds gusting to 70 mph along the Alaska Range Sun
into Mon ahead of these systems.

Do not expect freezing precip anywhere other than the Alaska Range
Sun night into Mon. All models indicate Temps remaining below
freezing across the SE interior other than the Alaska Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft. GFS has features moving north
deepen more than other models. Given that the lows are deepening
in the Eastern Aleutians and Bristol Bay along a frontal system
well east of the anchoring low, it is highly out of the ordinary
that cold air flowing east across several thousand miles of the
North Pacific would still be cold enough to allow lows to bomb out
in this location. Given those reasons favor the ECMF solution,
which does not deepen the surface features as much as the NAM or
GFS Sun and Mon. This will have have significant impacts on
winds/snow/blowing snow locations and strength for Sun and Mon.

At the surface at 06Z, all models verify several mb too weak with
low just north of Demarcation Point, 4 mb too weak on the low near
Kotzebue, and also several mb too weak on the surface high near
Northway, and on the surface high over NE Russia. This will cause
west winds to be a few kt stronger today in zone 204 than models
indicate, stronger winds by 5 kt around Koztebue Sounds today, a
Tanana Valleys jet which is 5-10 kt strong that models indicate
for this am, and winds a bit stronger over the Bering Se than
models indicate today/tonight.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Blizzard conditons with NE winds 30-40kt and g50 kt in the Bering
Strait.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ216-AKZ217.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB DEC 18