Winter Weather Advisory 21, NWS Anchorage, AK

059 
WWAK42 PAFC 111327
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 AM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

AKZ152-121800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181112T1800Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
427 AM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, and 
  ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST Monday. One area of precipitation will
  move through this morning. Then a second batch of heavier
  precipitation will start later this evening and persist through
  Mon morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

876 
WWAK42 PAFC 120059
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

AKZ155-121500-
/O.EXB.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.181112T0900Z-181112T1800Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
359 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, and 
  ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ161-121500-
/O.EXB.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.181112T0900Z-181112T1800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
359 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM AKST MONDAY NORTH OF DILLINGHAM...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, and 
  ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Inland areas north of Dillingham including New Stuyahok
  and Koliganek.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving. For the latest road conditions
call 5 1 1 or visit 511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ152-121500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181112T1800Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
359 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, and 
  ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST Monday. A second round of heavier
  precipitation will start around midnight tonight and persist 
  through Mon morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

605 
WWAK42 PAFC 120645
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
945 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

AKZ152-130100-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181113T0100Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
945 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, and 
  ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM AKST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

AKZ155-130300-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.181112T0900Z-181113T0300Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
945 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, and 
  ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ161-121800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.181112T0900Z-181112T1800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
945 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
MONDAY NORTH OF DILLINGHAM...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, and 
  ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Inland areas north of Dillingham including New 
  Stuyahok and Koliganek.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving. For the latest road conditions
call 5 1 1 or visit 511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

245 
WWAK42 PAFC 120653 CCA
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
953 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

AKZ152-130100-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181113T0100Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
953 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, and 
  ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM AKST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

AKZ155-130300-
/O.COR.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.181112T0900Z-181113T0300Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
953 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, and 
  ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

AKZ161-121800-
/O.COR.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.181112T0900Z-181112T1800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
953 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
MONDAY NORTH OF DILLINGHAM...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, and 
  ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Inland areas north of Dillingham including New 
  Stuyahok and Koliganek.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

802 
WWAK42 PAFC 121405
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

AKZ152-122100-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181112T2100Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
505 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 
NOON AKST TODAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total additional snow
  accumulations of 1 inch. Total additional ice accumulations of 
  up to one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

* WHEN...Until noon AKST today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

AKZ155-130300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181113T0300Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
505 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total additional snow
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. Total additional new ice
  accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected, with
  highest amounts north and west of Bethel.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

AKZ161-121800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181112T1800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
505 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING NORTH OF DILLINGHAM...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total additional snow
  accumulations of 1 inch. Total additional ice accumulations of 
  a trace are expected.

* WHERE...Inland areas north of Dillingham including New 
  Stuyahok and Koliganek.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

833 
WWAK42 PAFC 121605
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
705 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

AKZ152-121715-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181112T2100Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
705 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Localized areas of light freezing rain with little ice
accumulation.

$$

AKZ161-121715-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181112T1800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
705 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED NORTH OF DILLINGHAM...

Localized areas of light freezing rain north of Dillingham with 
little ice accumulation.

$$

AKZ155-130300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181113T0300Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
705 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total additional snow 
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. Total additional new ice 
  accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected, 
  with highest amounts north and west of Bethel.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely 
  due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

685 
WWAK42 PAFC 122130
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1230 PM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

AKZ155-122230-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-181113T0300Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
1230 PM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Localized areas of light freezing rain with little ice 
accumulation Hooper Bay will end this afternoon.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A southerly moving upper level low, with a digging trough over
the central Aleutians, has become the dominate system aloft. The
upper low is negatively tilted and intensifying as it spins in the
North Pacific, south of the central Aleutians. Stemming from the
Arctic, cold air is wrapping around the backside of the low. On
the leading edge, southerly flow is bringing in warm, moist air
from the tropics. A low at the surface is moving northwestward
from the Pacific along the northerly moving jet stream.
Precipitation is beginning to fall over Southcentral and the AK-
PEN ahead of the warm front extending from the surface low over
the eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement initially with the placement of the
low near Sand Point. Models start to diverge Sunday morning as the
system begins to become more complex with a series of lows moving
through the eastern Aleutians from the North Pacific. Models
disagree more so with the strength of the low than with the
placement. Things fall apart Monday afternoon as a second low
moves into the southern Gulf. The EC is on a much faster track
into the Gulf while the NAM lags behind. Eventually the GFS and EC
come into generally good agreement as the low moves over the AK-
PEN Monday night. The NAM is alone as it takes this second low
more northward into the western Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...As a storm system with tropical moisture moves up from the
Gulf this afternoon and evening cross barrier flow will
strengthen. Oftentimes this results in complete downslope drying.
However, in this case the core of winds are a little higher above
the mountains than a classical downslope case and winds along the
front range of the Chugach will be lighter with more of a
northerly component to the direction. In addition, tropical
moisture can overcome downslope affect and produce precipitation
and lower ceilings. So, expect a period of light snow to overrun
the region this evening. For the most part VFR conditions should
dominate, though a brief period of heavier snow may cause a drop
to MVFR.

The precipitation forecast after 12Z becomes complicated. Warm air
will surge in aloft producing conditions favorable for freezing
rain. The problem is determining whether precipitation will occur
at all in this time frame. There are some weak features moving
through aloft, but nothing strong. For now, will keep dry
conditions in the early morning. Precipitation will become much
more likely after 18z Sunday as short-wave comes up from the
south. By this time expect surface temperatures to be above
freezing resulting in rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A deepening low was located near Sand Point, with additional vort
maxes diving into the back side of an associated from the Bering
Sea. Additionally, a separate area of low pressure was racing
north through the Gulf. This system is of tropical origin, with a
deep tropical plume from Hawaii seen in this afternoon's Layer
Precipitable water vapor satellite imagery. This moisture that's
surging into our region is 300% or more above normal for this time
of year. However there have been a few changes from yesterdays
discussion.

One of the first changes is it was originally thought this would
initially be pointed at the Kenai Peninsula this evening, before
shifting east towards the northeastern Gulf overnight, and then
retrograding back on Sunday. Now, the models show this continuing
to be directed at the Kenai through Monday. This change is a
direct result of the models continuing to struggle with the vort
energy diving into the backside of the trough, causing new
cyclogenesis to commence. Todays run show the first area of low
pressure deeper and further to the southwest of Kodiak Island,
with both the tropical low getting absorbed into the trough, and
additional areas of low pressure developing for reasons described
above. In short, a series of lows (perhaps 3 to 5) will develop
and rotate around each other in a Fujiwhara-like fashion over the
next 24 to 48 hours. This causes the low-level jet to bend back to
the northwest and then west due to a stalled front near the Gulf
coast and the further southwest low positioning.

With a further southwest low position, the warm air arrival will
be delayed some, allowing for a period of freezing rain to develop
after an initial burst of snow for the Kenai Peninsula, where a
winter weather advisory has been issued to account for this.
Further north, the time between the moisture arrival and warm air
arrival is shorter, and confidence in getting any ice accumulation
is low. Further north and east, the current blizzard warning for
Thompson Pass looks good, as heavy snow and high winds are
virtually a slam dunk.

Finally, as another low refocuses the moisture advection into the
coastal areas on Monday, the heavy precipitation initially though
to be in the Sunday night through Monday afternoon has been
delayed by about 6 to 12 hours, but the same concerns remain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A complex weather pattern will exist for SW Alaska through the
weekend. A broad area of low pressure is in the western Gulf of
Alaska, with more than one low center spinning within it. Over the
next few days, these smaller areas of circulation will rotate
through SW Alaska, creating periods of precipitation. Due to the
disorganized nature of this pattern, timing and amount of
precipitation will be difficult to predict for specific locations
in SW Alaska.

Adding to the complexity of this system is the warm air that this
low will be bringing into the area. Right now, cold air is in place
at the surface for SW Alaska. As the low pushes precipitation
into the area tonight, warm air will overrun cold air at the
surface, making freezing rain a possibility for inland locations
in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, as these areas will hold on to cold
air longer. Areas along the coast will start as snow and then
quickly transition to rain as the colder air is displaced.

Also of note with this system will be storm force offshore winds
in Bristol Bay tonight, as the initial front passes through the
area. Winds will quickly diminish tomorrow before increasing again
tomorrow evening, though they are not expected to be as strong.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The broad area of low pressure affecting SW Alaska will also be
the big weather producer for the Bering Sea for the next few days.
The disorganized low pressure systems spinning through SW Alaska
will also spin through the eastern and Central Bering, making for
an active weather pattern. Plenty of precipitation will be present
with this system and due to the warm temperatures also associated
with it, anything that falls will mainly be in the form of rain
or a rain/snow mix.

What really draws attention with this storm is cold air diving
down the backside of the low from the north. This cold air,
coupled with the strength of the low will sustain storm force
winds through the Central Bering tonight, with storm force winds
shifting to the Western Bering tomorrow. Initially it looked at
though these winds would taper off tomorrow, but model guidance
shows they will continue through Sunday. Adjusted the forecast as
a result. We will continue to keep an eye on this system.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long-term forecast begins Monday night with an active pattern
remaining across much of the forecast domain. The main feature is
a large upper-level low centered south of the AKPEN and
stretching from the central Aleutians and southern Bering through
the Gulf. Multiple embedded shortwaves are pinwheeling around the
main trough, with the first well-defined feature situated south of
Kodiak Island, the second over the north Pacific well south of
the AKPEN, and the third moving across the eastern Aleutians from
the north. With the trough axis primarily over the AKPEN and two
surface lows in the western Gulf, southcentral Alaska will be
under the influence of a southerly fetch bringing a mild,
subtropical airmass from the Pacific into the region. Moving
through the week, both the deterministic guidance as well as their
ensemble counterparts are in relatively good agreement in keeping
this broad trough in place. The differences are in the timing and
position of the shortwaves and the surface features. In terms of
the big picture, the EC, NAM, and GFS all kick the low in the
northern Gulf toward the Alaska Panhandle on Tuesday while the low
in the southern Bering weakens and becomes absorbed into the main
surface low near Kodiak Island. This low then weakens as it
drifts southwest on Wednesday. Farther south, both the EC and GFS
develop a new north Pacific low, moving it toward the Gulf on
Thursday. Here the models diverge greatly, especially with the
timing of the low, as the GFS brings the low into the northern
Gulf by Thursday night while the EC delays the northward
progression by a good 12 hours or so. Either way, it will remain
fairly active across southcentral through next week with wind and
rain along the coast and mixed precipitation for interior
locations.

Farther west, both the GFS and EC develop a ridge over eastern
Russia, keeping a cold, northerly flow over the Bering. Guidance
also develops a low west of Shemya midweek with a front swinging
north across the Aleutians by late week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 131 (Thompson Pass).
 Winter Weather Advisory 121 125 141.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 130 131 138 139 160 165 173>176 179>181
                        185.
 Gale Warning 120 125 132 136 137 140 170 172 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
LONG TERM...TM