Storm Warning 177, NWS Anchorage, AK

067 
FZAK51 PAFC 301258
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-310200-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
Several well developed lows track over Western Alaska, with their
associated fronts crossing the Gulf through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-310200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 50 kt overnight, then becoming 
SW 35 kt toward morning. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-310200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-310200-
Resurrection Bay-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas building to 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-310200-
Prince William Sound-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-310200-
Port Valdez-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-310200-
Valdez Narrows-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-310200-
Valdez Arm-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-310200-
Passage Canal-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-310200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt becoming S 50 kt after midnight. 
Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-310200-
Barren Islands East-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW after midnight. 
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-310200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 25 ft subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-310200-
Chiniak Bay-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 14 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 18 ft 
subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-310200-
Marmot Bay-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-310200-
Shelikof Strait-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 55 kt overnight. 
Seas 12 ft building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 25 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-310200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S of Anchor Point, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
Snow and rain. N of Anchor Point, N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S of Anchor Point, E wind 50 kt becoming S 45 kt 
after midnight. Seas 13 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. 
Rain. N of Anchor Point, NE wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt 
overnight. Seas 6 ft building to 18 ft after midnight.
.MON...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 20 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-310200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt toward morning. 
Seas in ice free waters 6 ft building to 10 ft toward morning. 
Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 20 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-310200-
Kachemak Bay-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

804 
FZAK51 PAFC 310100
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-311400-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front associated with a 957 mb low 100 nm southwest of Cold Bay 
Sun afternoon moves across the Gulf through Mon morning. A new 
front enters the Gulf followed by a third front associated with 
lows moving over the Alaska Peninsula through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-311400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt in the evening increasing to 50 kt. Seas 12
ft in the evening building to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 
ft subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 in the evening increasing to 55 kt . Seas 17
ft in the morning building to 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-311400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 16 ft
building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt in the evening becoming SE 50 kt. Seas 21 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-311400-
Resurrection Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-311400-
Prince William Sound-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 50 kt. Seas 6
ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-311400-
Port Valdez-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-311400-
Valdez Narrows-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain with snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-311400-
Valdez Arm-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming NE. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-311400-
Passage Canal-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt in the evening then diminishing
to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 35 kt. Seas 5
ft. Rain showers and snow.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-311400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt becoming SW 50 kt after midnight. Seas 23 
ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft 
subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 60 kt after midnight. Seas 
21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-311400-
Barren Islands East-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight. Seas 22 
ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt in the evening increasing to 55 kt. Seas 
23 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-311400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25
ft subsiding to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 21 ft 
building to 29 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-311400-
Chiniak Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 10 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt in the evening increasing to 45 kt. Seas 
9 ft in the evening building to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-311400-
Marmot Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 18 
ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt in the evening increasing to 45 kt. Seas 
9 ft in the evening building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-311400-
Shelikof Strait-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt in the evening becoming S 55 kt. Seas 12 ft 
building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt in the evening becoming SE 50 kt. Seas 17 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-311400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt in the evening becoming S 50 kt. Seas 13 ft 
building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 
ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-311400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain and 
snow.
.MON...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas in 
ice free waters 19 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 3 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-311400-
Kachemak Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

195 
FZAK51 PAFC 311303
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010215-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
Well developed lows over Western Alaska spread strong winds over 
the Gulf of Alaska through Wed morning. A front pushes over the 
North Gulf Coast Mon night. A second front drives into the Central
Gulf for Wed morning.

$$

PKZ119-010215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 55 kt after midnight. 
Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-010215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 50 kt around midnight. 
Seas 14 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-010215-
Resurrection Bay-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-010215-
Prince William Sound-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt early, shifting to S 35 kt then 
diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft subsiding 
to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-010215-
Port Valdez-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt early, shifting to SW 20 kt then diminishing 
to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-010215-
Valdez Narrows-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt early, shifting to SW 25 kt then diminishing
to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 4 ft this morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-010215-
Valdez Arm-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt early, becoming S 30 kt then diminishing 
to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-010215-
Passage Canal-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt early, becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-010215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt becoming S 20 kt in the late afternoon. 
Seas 20 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft building to 24 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-010215-
Barren Islands East-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt becoming S 20 kt in the late afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 55 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-010215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 45 kt during the evening, then
shifting to SW late. Seas 19 ft building to 25 ft after midnight. 
Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-010215-
Chiniak Bay-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 40 kt by late evening, then 
shifting to S 35 kt late. Seas 5 ft building to 14 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-010215-
Marmot Bay-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 40 kt by late evening, then 
shifting to S 30 kt late. Seas 5 ft building to 16 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-010215-
Shelikof Strait-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 20 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 45 kt during the evening, 
then shifting to S 35 kt late. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-010215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the late afternoon. 
Seas 20 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the late afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming NE 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt shifting to S 35 kt by afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-010215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the late afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 17 ft diminishing to 10 ft late.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 4 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-010215-
Kachemak Bay-
403 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the late afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the late afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to E 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
617 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A deep, negatively tilted trough extends from Norton Sound
through the southern Gulf. This trough continues to shift
eastward, becoming more negatively tilted with time. Cold, polar
air is moving over the eastern and central Bering around the
trough with the coldest air advecting over the western mainland.
At 300 mb, the jet stream is in a zonal flow pattern with a slight
ridge in the jet occurring over the western mainland. The jet
position and the thermal packing on the western edge of the Alaska
Range, marks the area of a polar front that extends from east of
Sleetmute south into the northern Gulf. With convective support,
moisture from the Bering and cold air driving the front, snow is
falling throughout western mainland. Gusty conditions persist
through the AK-Pen, Bristol Bay and lower Kuskokwim Valley behind
the front. Shifting eastward, a meso low over the northwestern
Gulf is creating southeasterly flow into Southcentral. The influx
of moisture around this low combined with a column of cold air is
causing showers to occur throughout Southcentral and the northern
Gulf.

A deepening vertically stacked low is positioned over the western
Aleutians this morning. This low is producing a front that is
extending over the western and central Aleutians. Behind the
front an area of strong winds, referred to as a sting jet, has
formed on the convergent side of the flow around the low. Within
the sting jet, scatterometer passes detected storm force winds
over the western Aleutians including Shemya and Adak over night.
Hurricane force winds are possible with this system. Satellite
imagery shows the low well as a textbook cyclonic rotation over
the western Aleutians, while the front is displayed as a swath of
northwesterly oriented cloud cover over the central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement early on in the period, especially
regarding the location and strength of the low in the west. Models
have started to take this low on a more westerly track but remain
consistent through Sunday. On the other hand, the models struggle
with a North Pacific low moving over the central Aleutians
Saturday night. The EC is the fastest and more northerly
progressing solution while the GFS remains the model with the
strongest winds. This low is also quite deep but there is
discrepancy on the placement and the overall strength of the
system through Sunday. Sunday afternoon, yet another low moves
over the eastern Aleutians, and models continue to lock onto a
definitive progression as it tracks northward. Given the model
variability, confidence at this point is low with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Snow this morning will keep conditions bouncing between
MVFR and IFR as the heavier snow showers move through. Snow will
start tapering off this afternoon with light wind and VFR conditions
prevailing this evening through tonight. The next frontal system
will approach from the southwest Sunday morning with some brief
light snow possible. Increasing southeasterly flow will likely
downslope out precipitation and keep conditions VFR through Sunday
afternoon, though introduced the concern of low level wind shear and
increasing Turnagain Arm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Monday night)...

The upper trough approaching Southcentral this morning is moving a
little slower than models had indicated, so snowfall will persist
longer over Southcentral today. With several forcing mechanisms,
an elongated short-wave and the much stronger negatively tilted
upper trough chiefly among them. Thus, there are bands of snow
and the snowfall won't necessarily be continuous. Expect snow to
taper to a few showers by midday from the Kenai Peninsula to
Anchorage, then diminishing across the remainder of Southcentral
during the afternoon hours. A blizzard warning remains in effect
from Homer to Anchor Point until 9 am. Winds were slow to develop
while snowfall has been mostly light and intermittent. There is
still a chance for steadier snow this morning as the upper trough
moves through and colder air advects in (possibly leading to some
"lake- effect" type snow showers). In any case, snow accumulation
across the region will generally be light with 1 to 4 inches
covering most of Southcentral.

Next up in this fast moving pattern, a front extending from an
Aleutian low will move into the western Gulf/Kodiak Island tonight
then northward to Southcentral on Sunday. While warmer air will
change snow to rain for Kodiak Island, the arctic air mass in
place over Southcentral will ensure precipitation stays mostly
snow (with the exception being the Gulf coastline). Despite
strengthening southeast low level flow ahead of the front, flow
will veer with height to south to southwest above 850 mb. Thus,
may see a quick shot of light snow from the western Kenai to
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley before southeast flow and
downslope drying strengthens ahead of the next storm system
moving up from the Pacific. There is also potential for severely
reduced visibilities in snow and blowing snow beginning Sunday
morning for Portage, eastern Turnagain Arm and portions of the
Seward Highway corridor. With recent large fluctuations in model
guidance, confidence in the details of these storm systems has
been low, so will wait one more model cycle to make a final
decision on whether to issue a Winter Weather Advisory or
Blizzard Warning for this.

All eyes will then turn to what could be the most impactful storm
system of the bunch. It is looking more and more likely that a
deep low will track up from the Pacific Sunday and continue
northward across Southwest Alaska Sunday night into Monday
morning. This track screams "chinook" and potential windstorm,
especially for Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Once again,
confidence in track and depth of this system is low, but based
on some of the latest solutions there is good potential for high
winds in Turnagain Arm and higher elevations of Anchorage, with
some potential for strong and damaging winds moving into town.
These winds will also result in significant warming across the
entire region. The latest forecast has trended significantly
stronger with the wind and temperature forecast. With such strong
southeast winds, expect downslope drying for most of the western
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, Matanuska Valley, and eastern Susitna
Valley Sunday night through Monday morning. Meanwhile, heavy
precipitation is expect along the Gulf coast and Prince William
Sound along with the west side of Cook Inlet and the western
Susitna Valley.

Yet another strong storm looks like it will move up from the
Pacific into the Gulf sometime Monday or Monday night. With a
completely different storm track than the prior system, observed
weather will be significantly different. The commonality will be
another system with strong winds and heavy precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

Beneath clear skies, much of Southwest is currently enjoying the
calm before the storms, though temperatures are definitely on the
cold side with interior portions of the Kuskokwim Valley and
Bristol Bay seeing temperatures around 10 below so far. Along the
coasts, temperatures are around zero. This cold air will prove
pivotal to helping keep the precipitation mostly snow for this
first of two systems. High clouds are approaching the coast
already this morning in association with a strong front tracking
northeastward across the Bering towards Southwest Alaska. The
clouds will thicken through the day as the front approaches. The
first snow from this front will take until this evening to arrive
at the coasts, and longer to spread inland. Once the front
reaches the area, snow will become increasingly heavy as the
winds ramp up at the same time. With the expectation of
potentially heavy snow and strong winds, Blizzard Warnings have
been issued for both the Kuskokwim Delta and the Bristol Bay
areas. The worst conditions are expected along the coast of the
Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak Island. Further south, the worst
conditions are expected along the western Capes west of
Dillingham. That being said, since the front will survive some
ways inland, most everywhere away from the Alaska Range is
expected to get at least some snow and gusty winds are also
expected to make it well inland. Thus, blowing snow resulting in
reduced visibilities can be expected even outside of the Blizzard
Warning areas. Due to upslope and proximity to the low, the most
snow is expected from Koliganek west in the Bristol Bay zone, and
west of Bethel in the Kuskokwim Delta zone. Once the front moves
inland Sunday morning, conditions will rapidly improve over all of
Southwest Alaska from south to north. The winds will also weaken
a bit behind the front, but gusty southerly winds will persist
over all of the area through the day on Sunday. As is typical with
southerly winds, the front will also be transporting much warmer
air into Southwest Alaska, so high temperatures area-wide will
recover at least to the freezing mark. Southeasterly downslope
winds through the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges should lead to more
40s for highs in King Salmon and points south.

Leading forecast models are coming into much better agreement on
the development and intensification of another strong low on
Sunday south of the Alaska Peninsula that is expected to track
straight northward towards the Western Capes of Bristol Bay Sunday
afternoon and evening. This time with little to no cold air left,
as the low tracks north, a good bit of the Bristol Bay area in
particular will see plain rain as the low moves into the area.
While the models are improving, there remains a significant amount
of uncertainty as to the exact track of the low, how warm it will
get, and where the worst impacts from the storm will be.
Nevertheless, this storm too may be capable of near warning
criteria wind gusts once the low center passes. Thus, many areas
will see a blowing rain, and more gap winds will enhance strong
winds through the Kamishak Gap. The models are in general
agreement that the center will track right into the Kuskokwim
Delta late Sunday night, which, if the track persists, should mean
the only land on the cold side of the storm may be the coast of
the Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak Island. Thus, there is potential
for blizzard conditions to return to those same areas again Sunday
night. Model uncertainty rapidly increases in the wake of this
storm, with the possibilities for New Year's Day weather ranging
from a third strong low tracking near Shelikof strait putting
Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Delta on the cold side of the
low, to relatively quiet weather with rain and snow showers taking
over until another Bering low approaches on Tuesday followed by
the return of cold air.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

In the western Bering, a very strong low over the western
Aleutians remains the primary weather maker over the region this
morning. It is producing hurricane force winds across the islands
and the waters on both sides of the Aleutians. Over the Bering,
the hurricane force winds and gusts are out of the northeast,
gusting down into Shemya, while on the Pacific side, the "sting
jet" winds are gusting to hurricane force out of the southwest.
The low is nearing peak intensity now as it stalls out over the
area. With the center approaching Shemya now, the hurricane force
winds will subside through the morning, with the High Wind Warning
expiring at 9am. Meanwhile, snow associated with the leading front
have moved into the Pribilof Islands, which in addition to the
strong winds are causing near-blizzard conditions. With more
precipitation and winds to come, a Blizzard Warning remains in
effect through the day.

Zephyrs, or soft gentle breezes, will be non-existent over the
Bering as a developing low forms along the front over the
Aleutians between Unalaska and Atka this afternoon. This will
intensify the snow ongoing across the Pribilofs this evening. The
low will also bring much warmer air across the islands, which may
lead to the snow mixing with rain as the front goes by this
evening, especially in Saint George. The winds and snowfall rates
will rapidly diminish as the front crosses the islands between 9pm
and 3am tomorrow morning. Behind it, the winds will intensify once
again this time out of the southwest to similar levels as ahead of
the front. While any precipitation behind the front may mix with
or be all rain, the strong winds may re-suspend the already
fallen snow over the area into the morning. Thus, the Blizzard
Warning has been extended until 6am to include this dramatic shift
in winds. Yet another low develops south of the Alaska Peninsula
Sunday morning and will cross the Peninsula Sunday afternoon.
While precipitation with the low should be mostly rain at sea-
level, this low will also be strong and near-hurricane force winds
will be possible. Especially as the low over the Pacific and
Bering tracks northward past Cold Bay this afternoon and into
Southwest Alaska Sunday evening. Meanwhile, the first low, the one
currently over the western Aleutians will begin to slowly track
eastward along the Aleutians Sunday night into Monday. Behind the
low, much colder air returns to the Bering, sweeping from west to
east across the Bering, which should return most of the Bering to a
cold, snow showery pattern going into midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The run to run consistency with the global models has been poor.
Generally speaking, anticipate a wet pattern for this forecast
period for the southern tier of Alaska with the possibility of a
rain/snow/freezing rain mix for Southwest Alaska. The forecast
period commences Monday Dec 31st with a broad trough over the
Bering and Aleutians and a high amplitude ridge from the Eastern
Pacific to British Columbia. Meanwhile at the surface at 12z
Monday, both the GFS and the ECMWF have a potent low now north of
the chain between Unalaska and Adak. And the GFS has a specious
cyclone near St Matthew Island that the ECMWF doesn't have at all.
South of the chain the models have an additional low but the
position of the GFS feature is more than 100 NM from the ECMWF's
position. Both models show this feature moving towards the Gulf of
Alaska. The lack of consensus is echoed at 500 mb at 12z Monday,
which compounds with time. The timing of the precipitation shield
and the gusty winds is dependent the placement of the lows that
develop and on the ensuing track. There was a hefty amount of
blending and hedging this forecast period as a result of the models
poor performance record.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning: 121 155 161 195.
         High Wind Warning: 191.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Winds: 178 411.
         Storms: 130 155 172 177 180 181 185 412 413 414.
         Gales: 119 120 131 132 136 137 138 139 141 150 160 165
                170 171 173 174 175 176 179 351 352.
         Heavy Freezing Spray: 130 138 160 179 180 185 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW
LONG TERM...PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1138 AM AKST SAT DEC 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 AM     SNOW             6 WSW PALMER            61.58N 149.28W
12/29/2018  E3.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1124 AM     SNOW             9 S ANCHORAGE           61.16N 149.91W
12/29/2018  M2.7 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

1123 AM     SNOW             1 W RIDGEWAY            60.53N 151.11W
12/29/2018  E1.5 INCH        KENAI PENINSULA    AK   PUBLIC

1114 AM     SNOW             10 ESE KNIK             61.39N 149.48W
12/29/2018  E3.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1102 AM     SNOW             14 SSE ANCHORAGE        61.10N 149.72W
12/29/2018  E4.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM     SNOW             5 SW OF ANCHORAGE       61.16N 149.99W
12/29/2018  M2.3 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0900 AM     SNOW             1 NW HOMER              59.65N 151.55W
12/29/2018  E3.0 INCH        KENAI PENINSULA    AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM     SNOW             14 WNW SUTTON           61.79N 149.28W
12/29/2018  M3.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1144 AM AKST SAT DEC 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 AM     SNOW             16 S KNIK               61.22N 149.78W
12/29/2018  E3.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1200 PM AKST SAT DEC 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 AM     SNOW             5 NE FRITZ CREEK        59.78N 151.17W
12/29/2018  E4.0 INCH        KENAI PENINSULA    AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BLOWING SNOW WITH LOW VISIBILITY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1246 PM AKST SAT DEC 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE COLD BAY          55.20N 162.72W
12/29/2018  M79 MPH          ALEUTIANS EAST     AK   ASOS

            64 MPH SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 79 MPH. 1/4SM
            VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW. WINDS OUT OF THE
            SE (150).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
356 PM AKST SAT DEC 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     SNOW             LAKE OTIS & HUFFMAN     61.11N 149.83W
12/29/2018  E5.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
357 PM AKST SAT DEC 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     SNOW             WASILLA                 61.58N 149.46W
12/29/2018  E3.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

&&