Gale Warning 837, NWS Anchorage, AK

804 
FZAK51 PAFC 310100
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-311400-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front associated with a 957 mb low 100 nm southwest of Cold Bay 
Sun afternoon moves across the Gulf through Mon morning. A new 
front enters the Gulf followed by a third front associated with 
lows moving over the Alaska Peninsula through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-311400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt in the evening increasing to 50 kt. Seas 12
ft in the evening building to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 
ft subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 in the evening increasing to 55 kt . Seas 17
ft in the morning building to 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-311400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 16 ft
building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt in the evening becoming SE 50 kt. Seas 21 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-311400-
Resurrection Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-311400-
Prince William Sound-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 50 kt. Seas 6
ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-311400-
Port Valdez-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-311400-
Valdez Narrows-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain with snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-311400-
Valdez Arm-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming NE. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-311400-
Passage Canal-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt in the evening then diminishing
to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 35 kt. Seas 5
ft. Rain showers and snow.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-311400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt becoming SW 50 kt after midnight. Seas 23 
ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft 
subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 60 kt after midnight. Seas 
21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-311400-
Barren Islands East-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight. Seas 22 
ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt in the evening increasing to 55 kt. Seas 
23 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-311400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25
ft subsiding to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 21 ft 
building to 29 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-311400-
Chiniak Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 10 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt in the evening increasing to 45 kt. Seas 
9 ft in the evening building to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-311400-
Marmot Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 18 
ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt in the evening increasing to 45 kt. Seas 
9 ft in the evening building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-311400-
Shelikof Strait-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt in the evening becoming S 55 kt. Seas 12 ft 
building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt in the evening becoming SE 50 kt. Seas 17 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-311400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt in the evening becoming S 50 kt. Seas 13 ft 
building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 
ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-311400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain and 
snow.
.MON...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas in 
ice free waters 19 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 3 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-311400-
Kachemak Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
747 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

We have an upper level trough extending from the Seward Peninsula
to Prince William Sound that is being pushed to the northeast by
a building upper level ridge from the Gulf of Alaska. The surface
low is in the base of this trough in Prince William Sound.
Satellite and radar show a distinct back edge to the precipitation
and higher clouds of this trough. Lower clouds have persisted over
Cook Inlet to the Matanuska Valley today. The ridge is being
pushed northeast in response to the front that is being pushed
northeast toward the Bering Sea coast. This front is from the
large vertically stacked low over the western Bering Sea that is
slowly moving east as it decays. Along this front a low has formed
south of Unalaska that is moving north. This rapidly deepening
low is generating strong hurricane force winds.

Cold, polar air over the eastern Bering is being eroded by the
incoming warmer air with the incoming front. This has not
progressed far north and the Pribilof Islands remain cold enough
to keep precipitation snow and that combined with the strong east
wind is resulting in blizzard conditions.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models finally converged on a unified position and strength
for the intense low heading across the Pribilof Islands late
tonight. The next low in this series is on tap to hit the Alaska
Peninsula Sunday afternoon and the models are in good general
agreement with the strength and position of this storm. The models
show good agreement with the progression of the front toward the
Bering Sea coast and the onset of the snow and wind tonight. There
remains some uncertainty in the models with respect to the
strength of the wind expected with this low as it crosses the
Alaska Peninsula Sunday night. While the models generally agree
on the timing of this, they continue to struggle with the
magnitude of the wind field around the south and west side of this
low. The NAM and GFS over the last couple of model cycles have
been consistent with the movement and magnitude of the low as has
the ECMWF, although the ECMWF has had the weaker low solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The main issue for tonight will be the cloud ceiling and
to a lesser degree the visibility. Uncertainty remains with regard
to the cloud deck lifting, though we do expect to be VFR this
evening. We are still on tap for the next low to move up over SW
Alaska and push moisture over Southcentral Alaska. However,
stronger south southeast wind across the Chugach will create a
down slope drying and limit any precipitation. Another concern for
Sunday is the potential for wind shear, at least earlier in the
day until the wind mixes down to the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2/Tonight
through Monday)...

Weak low-level convergence extending from the Anchorage Bowl
north across the Susitna Valley is bringing a band of light to
moderate snow across the region this evening. The snow will come
to an end tonight as the upper-level shortwave responsible for the
snow continues to lift north and east.

A front extending from a deep Aleutian low will sweep across the
western Gulf tonight then track north to Southcentral on Sunday.
While warmer air will change snow to rain for Kodiak Island, the
arctic air mass in place over Southcentral will ensure
precipitation stays mostly snow across most of the interior and
higher elevations. Along the immediate coast, snow during the
onset of the event will changeover to rain, which will be heavy at
times. An initial southwesterly flow at mid-levels could help
produce a brief period of light snow along the western Kenai
Peninsula north across Anchorage and into the Matanuska Valley
before southeast flow and downslope drying strengthens ahead of
the next storm system moving up from the Pacific. A four to six
hour period of blizzard conditions is also expected Sunday morning
for Portage, eastern Turnagain Arm and portions of the Seward
Highway corridor before the warmer air moves in and changes the
precipitation to rain. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for
these locations.

Guidance is coming into better agreement that a deep low will
track up from the Pacific Sunday and continue northward across
Southwest Alaska Sunday night into Monday morning as it induces a
ridge of high pressure along the Southcentral coast. This track,
and the resultant pressure gradient increase, will bring about a
chinook wind and potential windstorm, especially for Anchorage
and the Matanuska Valley (Palmer). A High Wind Warning has been
issued for the Upper Hillside and along Turnagain Arm for winds
gusting to near 80 mph Sunday evening through early Monday
morning. These winds will also result in significant warming
across the entire region. Gusty winds will make it into Anchorage
proper for a time late Sunday, but the southeasterly wind will
battle with the northerly outflow winds from the MAT-SU Valleys.
This may help tamp down the winds for a time in the northern parts
of the city. These winds will turn to the south then southwest
and diminish Monday morning as both the low and the front lifts
north of the region.

Yet another strong storm looks like it will move up from the
Pacific into the Gulf late Monday. With a completely different
storm track than the prior system, observed weather will be
significantly different. The commonality will be another system
with strong winds and heavy precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Tonight
through Monday)...

The southwest mainland is about to go on a meteorological roller
coaster ride over the next couple of days as a series of strong
lows move through the area. Tonight, very cold air will remain
entrenched over most inland areas as cloud cover rapidly increases
ahead of a strong warm front to the west. As the front pushes
across the coast tonight, very strong southeasterly winds ramp up
and will be accompanied by heavy snowfall. This combination will
lead to periods of near white-out conditions along the coast, thus
the blizzard warning remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta
and Bristol Bay coastal areas. Precipitation should be mostly snow
with this system, though warm air over running cold surface air
could lead to periods of freezing rain early Sunday morning along
the Northern Bristol Bay coast around Dillingham then inland
later in the morning. Temperatures will rapidly rise as the front
pushes through Sunday morning, with most locations warming to or
above the freezing mark by noon. Snow should rapidly diminish as
the front moves through as well.

A brief lull in the action will develop Sunday afternoon before a
strong sub-960 mb low moves north across the southern AKPEN and
into Bristol Bay Sunday evening into Monday morning. The main
impact from this system will be very strong winds, which will
start out from the SE then switch over to the SW as the low moves
north. Winds will really ramp up Sunday evening across the AKPEN
and through the Kamishak Gap across Lake Iliamna. Winds could gust
as high 70 mph in the most favored locations. 40-50 mph wind
gusts will then spread across most of the SW mainland by Monday
morning as the direction switches to the SW. This system will pull
in even warmer air meaning most locations should see a rain snow
mix or just rain, with the exception of the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2:
Tonight through Monday)...

Multiple storm systems will impact the Bering region over the next
couple of days, continuing the period of stormy weather. For the
Eastern Bering and Aleutians, a strong warm front will continue
sweeping north and east across the region bringing storm force
winds and heavy precipitation. Blizzard conditions will persist
over the Pribilof Islands tonight before the front pushes north
of the islands by midnight, ending snow and warming up the
temperatures to above freezing. Winds will switch to the south but
will not be as strong as they were today, thus the blizzard
warning is now set to expire at midnight. The front will continue
pushing across the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN tonight, leading to
strong southeasterly winds across the island chain with warming
temperatures, leading to snow changing over to rain from west to
east tonight. Another strong low pushes across the AKPEN tomorrow
afternoon bringing hurricane force winds to the open waters south
of the AKPEN Sunday evening. A swath of heavy precipitation will
accompany the system, but is expected to be mostly rain as the
system will drag up warmer air from the south.

Out west, the strong low over the Western Aleutians will continue
to track east along the island chain, slowly weakening as it
does. This system will continue to bring gale force winds to the
area and widespread rain and snow showers as it slowly meanders
past Atka by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The run to run consistency with the global models continues to be
atrocious. Generally speaking, anticipate a wet pattern for this
forecast period for the southern tier of Alaska with the
possibility of a rain/snow/freezing rain mix for Southwest Alaska.
The forecast period commences Tuesday January 1st with a broad
trough over NE Russia, the Bering and Aleutians with southwest
flow aloft over most of mainland Alaska. There is a high amplitude
positive tilt ridge from the Eastern Pacific to British
Columbia/Alberta. Meanwhile at the surface at 12z Tuesday, both
the GFS and the ECMWF have a potent low north of the chain, the
GFS places the low NW of St Paul and the ECMWF places the low on
top of the Pribilof Islands with a trough axis extending out of
it. However, the axis/orientation of the trough is completely
different between the GFS and the ECMWF. But the real eye sore is
near the AKPEN/Kodiak and over the Gulf Of Alaska where the GFS
has a bombed-out low and the ECMWF basically has a very weak low.
This GFS cyclone looks a bit aggressive, but maybe three days
from now we will all be singing the praises of the GFS solution
that locked onto the bombed-out low before any of the other
guidance. The lack of consensus is echoed at 500 mb at 12z
Tuesday, which compounds with time. The timing of the
precipitation shield and the gale/storm or even hurricane force
winds are dependent on the placement of the lows that develop and
on the track of the low. There was a hefty amount of blending and
hedging this forecast period as a result of the models poor
performance record. Stay tuned for more details with these
potential winter weather storms. Many of the important decisions
being made with these storms is occurring one or two days out
because the models have not been doing well this winter.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning...101.
		 Blizzard Warning...125 155 161 195.
MARINE...Gales...120 128 129 131 136 137 139 140 141 170 171
				 173 174 176 177 179.
		 Storms...119 125 130 132 138 160 165 172 178 180 181
				  185.
		 Hurricane Force...150 155.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray...160 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...PJS