Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2018
Storm Warning 156, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this storm warning at Dec 28, 2018, 4:04 AM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 28, 2018, 4:04 AM AKST (13:04 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 30, 2018, 3:43 AM AKST
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
549 FZAK62 PAFC 281304 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-290200- 404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 995 mb low at 55N 159W will move into the western Gulf Fri afternoon. A 950 mb North Pacific low will move to 47N 176W Fri afternoon then it will move near 52N 176E at 947 mb Sat evening. The low will then move near 51N 176E at 950 mb Sun morning. A second North Pacific low will move to 52N 165W at 978 mb Sat night then it will move near the Alaska Peninsula Sun morning. $$ PKZ411-290200- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... .TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NE 45 to 60 kt after midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 17 to 32 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N in the morning. Snow with rain showers S of 56N in the afternoon. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. .SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft. .MON...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. .TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ412-290200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...STORM WARNING SATURDAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Snow changing to rain showers in the afternoon. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. .SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .MON...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ413-290200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... .TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. .SAT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 27 ft. Rain and snow. .SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. $$ PKZ414-290200- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY... .TODAY...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of the Pribilofs in the morning. Snow with rain from the Pribilofs south in the afternoon. .SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. $$
4 follow-up statements
922 FZAK62 PAFC 290030 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-291345- 330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 960 mb low at 46N 176E moves to 52N 174E Sat afternoon at 950 mb. The low then moves to 50N 178E at 960 mb Sun afternoon. A second low forms at 49N 168W Sat afternoon at 977 mb and moves to 57N 166W at 963 mb Sat night and then moves inland Sun afternoon. $$ PKZ411-291345- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NE 45 to 60 kt after midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 16 to 31 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. .SAT...E wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers with rain showers. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt becoming NE 30 to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Snow showers with rain showers. .SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 23 to 29 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. .MON...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. .TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. .WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. $$ PKZ412-291345- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...STORM WARNING SATURDAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow with rain showers. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Snow with rain showers. .SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 31 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. .MON...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ413-291345- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. .SAT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow. .SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. $$ PKZ414-291345- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of the Pribilof Islands in the morning. Snow and rain. .SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft building to 16 to 29 ft after midnight. Snow with rain showers. .SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$
604 FZAK62 PAFC 291236 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-300145- 336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 944 mb low at 52N 178E will move to 51N 175E at 947 mb Sun morning. The low will then move to 51N 176W at 960 mb Mon morning. Another 973 mb North Pacific low will move to 53N 170W Sat afternoon then it will move to 58N 171W at 956 mb Sun morning. The low will then move into the northern Bering Sun afternoon. A third North Pacific low will move to 55N 163W Sun afternoon at 961 mb then it will move inland over Bethel Mon morning at 964 mb. $$ PKZ411-300145- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E wind 50 to 65 kt. Gusts to 80 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft. Snow and rain showers. .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 31 ft building to 24 to 31 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain showers. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 20 to 29 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. $$ PKZ412-300145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt in the morning. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Snow with afternoon rain. .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. .SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Snow. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. .WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ413-300145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SW 25 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ414-300145- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning from the Pribilofs north. Snow except afternoon rain south of the Pribilofs. .TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow...except rain south of the Pribilofs. .SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$
627 FZAK62 PAFC 300120 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-301345- 420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 943 mb complex low at 52N 175E moves to 51N 179E at 951 mb Sun afternoon and then moves to 55N 171W at 962 mb Mon afternoon. A second low at 54N 170W Sat afternoon moves to 58N 174W at 960 mb Sat night and then exits the Bering to the north Mon morning. A third 964 mb low at 51N 164W Sun morning moves to 58N 165W at 953 mb Sun evening and then moves inland Sun night. A fourth 979 mb low forms near 52N 155W Mon afternoon. $$ PKZ411-301345- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N. Snow. .SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N. Snow. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. .MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. .TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. .WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. .THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. $$ PKZ412-301345- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N. Snow and rain. .SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt except S 20 to 35 kt E of 175 W. Seas 16 to 30 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. .TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. .WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. $$ PKZ413-301345- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt except S 15 to 25 E of 175 W. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain showers. .MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. .MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. .TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ414-301345- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming SW 30 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow. .SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. $$
063 FZAK62 PAFC 301243 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 343 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-310200- 343 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 980 mb low at 45N 169W moves to 58N 162W at 957 mb and continues to 68N 167W at 980 mb Tue morning. A 947 mb low near 51N 176E Sun morning and a 981 mb low at 45N 166W Mon morning merge to form a 947 mb low near 58N 159W Tue morning. Its front moves across the Aleutians into Western Alaska by Tue morning. $$ PKZ411-310200- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 343 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 31 ft. Snow. .TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. .MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. .MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. $$ PKZ412-310200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 343 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...W of 174W, NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. E of 174W, S wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Snow. .TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. $$ PKZ413-310200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 343 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018 .TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain showers. .MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain showers. .MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ414-310200- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 343 AM AKST Sun Dec 30 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Dec 27, 5:06 PM AKST, 10 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 27, 5:06 PM AKST, 10 hours 58 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 PM AKST Thu Dec 27 2018
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
After a few quiet days, weather is finally returning to
Southcentral this afternoon. A strong low pressure system is
moving into the northern Gulf of Alaska, and continues on a
northeasterly track toward the AlCan border. Ahead of the low, an
inverted trough is bringing precipitation to the Southcentral
region, which is falling as rain along the coast and as snow
further inland. This trough is expected to develop into a
deformation band and remain fairly stationary over the Anchorage
area through the afternoon.
A vertically stacked low south of the central Aleutians is
responsible for another area of precipitation today. Most areas
have seen rain switching over to snow as temperatures dropped
below freezing earlier this afternoon, which will likely continue
to be the trend into the evening as the low moves eastward.
An upper level trough over the eastern Bering is dropping down
bringing colder air and northerly flow as it shifts east towards
the mainland. High pressure remains over the western Bering, with
a strong front approaching the western Aleutians.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model consistency continues to be lackluster this afternoon. The
current low moving into the Gulf continues on a track that is to
the northeast of what we saw yesterday. Nam and NamNest seem to be
initializing the best with current track so these were used for
the short term forecast in the east. Out west, the position of the
low heading toward the Aleutians is more consistent between
models, however the strength varies greatly between models. A
model blend was used for this afternoon's forecast, with a
slightly weaker trend on the winds coming into the Aleutians
tonight.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Snow will taper off through the evening in the Anchorage
bowl, with slightly improved visibility. Expect fog to develop
later tonight and bring conditions to IFR. That said, there is
some uncertainty in vsbys as lingering midlevel clouds could
preclude fog formation.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Sunday)...
A surface low east of Middleton Island will continue to produce
widespread rain and snow with gusty outflow winds from Passage
Canal and Prince William Sound east overnight. An upper- level
shortwave along with a weak deformation zone nearly stationary
along the Cook Inlet continues to produce light snow from Homer
north through the Anchorage Bowl and lower Mat-Su valleys, where
in general one to two inches of snow has fallen. Both systems will
weaken as they progress to the northeast overnight, allowing the
snow to come to an end and the outflow winds to diminish. An
additional one to two inches of snow is possible from Anchorage
through the Mat-Su Valleys overnight. Farther east, rain will
change to snow as colder air wraps in the backside and
precipitation tapers off. Areas of fog are also possible along
northern Cook Inlet overnight into tomorrow morning as a weak
ridge builds in behind the trough.
The next storm system then tracks over Kodiak Island Friday and
along the eastern Kenai Peninsula Friday night. The surface low
will slowly strengthen as it tracks to the northeast and have
decent support from a negatively tilted, upper-level shortwave
and strong cold air advection. Another period of gusty winds
through the gaps and passes, along with a brief period of moderate
snow is expected late Friday through the first half of Saturday.
This system, however, will move through the region quickly, so
snow amounts overall will remain below advisory level, with
accumulations around 2 to 4 inches expected from Seward and Kenai
north across Anchorage and into the Mat-Su Valleys.
The active weather will continue into the weekend as a frontal
system approaches the Gulf Saturday night into Sunday. A deep
storm out along the Aleutians will help amplify the pattern, which
will ultimately lead to warmer temperatures and strong
southeasterly gap winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight
through Saturday)...
An upper level trough extending across the Bering is anchored by a
low just south of Cold Bay. This low will continue to advance
northeastward into Southwest through the next 24 hours. The
associated warm front will bring a surge of moisture into the area
in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, while cold Arctic air
continues to stream in from the north at the surface level. This
will allow for accumulating snowfall across the northern Kuskokwim
Valley through Fri evening, with the greatest amounts expected
along the western side of the Alaska Range north of Dillingham to
Sleetmute. As a result, a winter weather advisory has been issued
for this area with this afternoon's forecast package. Looking
farther south over the AKPEN, it appears that enough warm air
associated with the warm front is in place to allow for mostly
rain or possibly a mix of both rain and snow for a short period of
time on Fri morning. As this low departs and moves eastward by
Sat morning, a brief ridge of high pressure will move in, allowing
for cold Arctic air to return. By Sat night, the pattern will
shift as a strong front with southerly flow arrives to the
Southwest coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Tonight
through Saturday)...
Several strong low pressure systems will impact the Bering and
Aleutians over the next few days. The first low is currently
centered just south of the eastern Aleutians and will move
northeastward into Southwest through the next 24 hours. As this
low departs, northerly flow allows for cold Arctic air to return
over the Bering through Fri morning. Meanwhile, a stout front
associated with a 940 mb Kamchatka low arrives over the western
Aleutians by late tonight. This front will stall out and quickly
occlude by Fri afternoon. In the wake of this front, a second low
develops south of Shemya at 956 mb Fri afternoon and strengthens
to around 945 mb as it crosses the western Aleutians on Saturday
morning. Winds and sea states are the main concern with this
system, with wide swaths of storm-force winds flanking the center
of the low. Another item of concern regarding this strong low is
the amount of cold air wrapping around the base of low, amplifying
a southwesterly low level jet over the western Aleutians. Right
now, model guidance places the strongest winds associated with
this jet just to the west of Adak. A slight easterly shift of the
low will place the jet directly over Adak. For now, have issued a
High Wind Watch for the Western Aleutians for late Friday night
through Saturday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
A wet pattern is on tap for this forecast period. The forecast
period commences New Year's Eve day with a broad trough over the
Bering and Aleutians and a high amplitude ridge from the Eastern
Pacific to the Yukon Territory. Meanwhile at the surface at 12z
Monday, both the GFS and the ECMWF have a potent low west of Adak
and another low over SW AK/Bristol Bay with cyclonic flow
dominating the entire Bering and much of the North Pacific. At 500
mb at 12z Monday, both the GFS and the ECMWF have closed lows in
support of the surface lows with an amalgamation of embedded
shortwaves aloft. Complicating matters, the GFS has an
additional closed low at 500 mb north of St Paul whereas the ECMWF
has a minor ridge axis. While the timing of the precipitation
shield may vary as it moves from west to east, what's noteworthy
is that warm air will be advected into the Aleutians, Southwest
Alaska and portions of Southcentral. By Tuesday, a new surface
low will spin up south of the AKPEN and this storm is headed to
the Gulf Of Alaska. By 00z Wednesday the GFS and the ECMWF progs
this new surface low 200 NM apart from the other at opposite ends
of the GOA. The timing of the sensible weather highlights are
dependent on the placement of the lows that develop and on the
ensuing track.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory For Snow: 152 161.
High Wind Watch: 187 191.
MARINE...Gales: 119 130 131 170 172 173 174 351 412 414.
Storm: 175 176 177 178 411 413.
Heavy Freezing Spray: 160 180 181 185.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF/AH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP/KO
LONG TERM...PSThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 3:17 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Dec 27, 3:17 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 49 hr | |
| Dec 27, 3:55 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Dec 27, 3:55 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Dec 27, 3:57 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Dec 27, 3:57 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Dec 27, 3:57 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Dec 27, 3:57 PM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Dec 27, 4:07 PM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 35 hr | |
| Dec 27, 4:12 PM AKST | High Wind Watch | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Dec 28, 3:58 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 4 days | |
| Dec 28, 4:01 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Dec 28, 4:01 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Dec 28, 4:01 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 4 days | |
| Dec 28, 4:04 AM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Dec 28, 4:09 AM AKST | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Dec 28, 4:09 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Dec 28, 4:09 AM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Dec 28, 4:58 AM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 11 hr | |
| Dec 28, 5:00 AM AKST | Blizzard Warning | AFC | 28 hr | |
| Dec 28, 5:17 AM AKST | High Wind Warning | AFC | 28 hr | |
| Dec 28, 5:59 AM AKST | Hurricane Force Wind Warning | AFC | 34 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.