Storm Warning 155, NWS Anchorage, AK

549 
FZAK62 PAFC 281304
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-290200-
404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 995 mb low at 55N 159W will move into the western Gulf Fri
afternoon. A 950 mb North Pacific low will move to 47N 176W Fri 
afternoon then it will move near 52N 176E at 947 mb Sat evening. 
The low will then move near 51N 176E at 950 mb Sun morning. A
second North Pacific low will move to 52N 165W at 978 mb Sat night 
then it will move near the Alaska Peninsula Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-290200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NE 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 17 to 32 ft after midnight.
Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N
in the morning. Snow with rain showers S of 56N in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.MON...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-290200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray in
the morning. Snow changing to rain showers in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-290200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 27 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-290200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
404 AM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of the Pribilofs in the morning. Snow with rain from the
Pribilofs south in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

922 
FZAK62 PAFC 290030
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-291345-
330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low at 46N 176E moves to 52N 174E Sat afternoon at 950
mb. The low then moves to 50N 178E at 960 mb Sun afternoon. A
second low forms at 49N 168W Sat afternoon at 977 mb and moves to
57N 166W at 963 mb Sat night and then moves inland Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-291345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NE 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 16 to 31 ft after midnight.
Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers with rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt becoming NE 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Snow showers with rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 23 to 29 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-291345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Snow with rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Snow with rain
showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 31 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-291345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-291345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
330 PM AKST Fri Dec 28 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray 
north of the Pribilof Islands in the morning. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft building to 16
to 29 ft after midnight. Snow with rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

604 
FZAK62 PAFC 291236
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-300145-
336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 944 mb low at 52N 178E will move to 51N 175E at 947 mb Sun
morning. The low will then move to 51N 176W at 960 mb Mon morning.
Another 973 mb North Pacific low will move to 53N 170W Sat 
afternoon then it will move to 58N 171W at 956 mb Sun morning. The
low will then move into the northern Bering Sun afternoon. A 
third North Pacific low will move to 55N 163W Sun afternoon at 
961 mb then it will move inland over Bethel Mon morning at 964 mb.

$$

PKZ411-300145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 to 65 kt. Gusts to 80 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft. 
Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 31 ft building to 24 to 31
ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 20 to 29 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-300145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt in the morning. 
Seas 16 to 24 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow with afternoon rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-300145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SW 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-300145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
336 AM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray in the morning from the Pribilofs north. 
Snow except afternoon rain south of the Pribilofs.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming SW after midnight. 
Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow...except rain south of the Pribilofs.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

627 
FZAK62 PAFC 300120
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-301345-
420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 943 mb complex low at 52N 175E moves to 51N 179E at 951 mb Sun
afternoon and then moves to 55N 171W at 962 mb Mon afternoon. A
second low at 54N 170W Sat afternoon moves to 58N 174W at 960 mb
Sat night and then exits the Bering to the north Mon morning. A
third 964 mb low at 51N 164W Sun morning moves to 58N 165W at 953
mb Sun evening and then moves inland Sun night. A fourth 979 mb 
low forms near 52N 155W Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-301345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-301345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft. Freezing spray N of
57N. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt except S 20 to 35 kt E of 175 W. Seas 16 
to 30 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-301345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt except S 15 to 25 E of 175 W. Seas 
11 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-301345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
420 PM AKST Sat Dec 29 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming SW 30 to 40 kt after 
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKST Thu Dec 27 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad northeasterly oriented long wave trough, stemming from an
Arctic low, encompasses the Bering with several short waves
embedded within the flow. Northerly flow and strong cold air
advection is occurring over the western and central Bering. The
first short wave extends over the central Aleutians and is
associated with a surface low. The surface low is bringing
precipitation to the islands and weak westerly flow over the
eastern Aleutians. The second shortwave extends from the western
mainland over Kodiak Island and into the southern Gulf. A large
band of increased vorticity runs the western coast into the Gulf
mimicking the location of the short wave. This shortwave is also
associated with a surface low that is gaining momentum and moving
northeast. A front ahead of the low is moving northward into the
northern Gulf which is creating south to southeasterly winds and
slight warm air advection. In the northern Gulf, a deformation
zone is passing over Southcentral which is bringing showers to
Southcentral. Radar shows the showers concentrated over the
northern Gulf. The next weather feature to watch is an
intensifying front and associated North Pacific low that is
approaching the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptically, models are in decent agreement early on. Model
consistency in regards to the low south of the central Aleutians
quickly dissipates as the models diverge tonight. The EC/Canadian
models are moving faster towards Bristol Bay while the NAM/GFS
are lacking behind. With this specific low and its track, the NAM
was selected as the model of choice. Regarding the low in the
southwestern Gulf, models have finally settled on a track just
east of Prince William Sound tonight. The next main feature to
note is the approaching front and associated North Pacific low.
Models are in decent agreement with the front placement but they
differ greatly on the strength of the low. The GFS has the
strongest solution with the low about 20 mb lower than the other
solutions. This causes the winds with the front to be
significantly stronger. By Saturday morning models diverge further
as the placement of the low and the intensity of the winds greatly
differ. A combination of models was used with this system, but
confidence regarding wind speeds remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail until midday before light snow
develops and drops ceilings to and visibilities down to MVFR at
times through early evening. Confidence in the intensity and
precise location of the strongest portion of the snow band however
remains low given continued model differences. If the heaviest
portion of the band sets up right over PANC, conditions could drop
to IFR for a couple hours and if the band drifts more quickly
west than current model runs are depicting, the snow be lighter
and end earlier. Following the snow band, a secondary upper
trough swings through with cold advection which will support
additional snow showers along the mountains tonight, these
however, should remain well east of the terminal.

&&.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Saturday night)...

A deepening surface low over the central Gulf will track toward
Cordova today, with an upper level short-wave extending W-NW from
the low. This system is looking more impressive than numerical
models originally depicted, so have upped precipitation amounts in
the latest forecast. In particular, as the low nears the coast, a
deformation band will set up across the Kenai Peninsula up to
northern Cook Inlet and into the southern Susitna Valley. There is
some uncertainty in exactly where the heaviest snow will set-up,
but guidance is now placing at least parts of Anchorage under the
deformation band. This could be yet another event where west
Anchorage sees more snow than the rest of the city. The
deformation band will last for about a 6 hour period - from
approximately Noon to 6pm. The low will then head inland east of
Cordova while the trailing short-wave then lifts northeastward.
Snowfall with this trailing wave looks notably lighter.

The next storm system, currently south of the eastern Aleutians,
will track across the western Gulf Friday then up to near the
Kenai Peninsula Friday night. While the surface low looks weak,
the upper trough is looks strong and negatively tilted and will
be accompanied by strong cold air advection. With such strong
forcing, have trended more aggressive with the snow forecast and
strengthened winds in the cold advection. This does look like a
relatively quick moving trough, so do not anticipate issuing any
advisories or warnings at this point, but will continue to
evaluate potential for heavy snowfall accumulation.

The active weather will continue, as a frontal system then
approaches the Gulf Saturday night. A deep storm out along the
Aleutians will help amplify the pattern, which will ultimately
lead to warmer temperatures as we head through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

Below normal temperatures have ended for now across most of
Southwest Alaska. Snow showers associated with a weak upper level
front will move northeastward with time, and the associated cloud
cover will prevent any radiational cooling that would allow for
continued below normal temperatures. Light snow showers and some
patchy fog in Bristol Bay is likely to continue into tonight. A
new low approaches the Alaska Peninsula late tonight as an upper
level low and associated front move in from the west. The
combination of these two features will cause a deformation band to
develop early Friday morning. A surface low tracking up Shelikof
Strait will pump moisture into Southwest Alaska over the Aleutian
Mountains. Meanwhile, the cold air advancing from the west in
combination with a strong upper level front will add lift to the
atmosphere. As a result, widespread light snow will develop early
Friday morning over Bristol Bay and spread north into the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley by the afternoon. Most areas east of a Dillingham
to Sleetmute line are expected to get about 2 to 4 inches of snow
through Friday night. Higher amounts closer to 6 inches are
possible along the western slopes of the Alaska Range in the lower
Kuskokwim Valley as the mountains add additional lift locally.

In the wake of the upper level low and front, a very cold Arctic
air mass will move into the Kuskokwim Delta early on Friday and
overspread Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley by Friday
night. Assuming calm winds, clearing skies, and a fresh snow cover
will allow temperatures to plummet to around 20 below in interior
areas of Southwest Alaska on Saturday morning. The cold snap will
be very short-lived as a strong front approaches the coast
Saturday evening, bringing another more significant round of snow
with much warmer temperatures to all of Southwest Alaska on
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

Low pressure systems will impact portions of the Bering Sea
through Saturday. The first is a relatively weak low whose center
is tracking south of Dutch Harbor. Behind the low, very cold air
spilling directly out of the Arctic is wrapping around the low
center. A band of heavier snow along the strongest temperature
gradient north and west of the low is moving east. It is expected
to reach Dutch Harbor around midday today and persist into the
evening, as the low is relatively slow moving. Thus, any rain or
mixed precipitation in Dutch Harbor is expected to transition to a
heavy, wet snow that will be blown around in 20 to 30 mph winds.
Thus, expect a significant reduction in visibility in blowing snow
all over Unalaska Island today. The snow will move east overnight,
impacting the Alaska Peninsula, and then will track into Shelikof
Strait during the day on Friday.

Leaving behind the first low, a second much stronger low and
associated front are expected to move into the western Aleutians
starting late tonight. The front will bring warmer air to that
region. The models are still having a hard time pegging down where
the low is and perhaps more importantly, how strong it will be.
For the most part, the models are agreeing that the front will
produce hurricane force winds in the waters around Attu and Shemya
late tonight. The front will weaken somewhat during the day on
Friday. A secondary low will follow behind that front Friday
evening, intensifying as it goes. This will make for a second
round of hurricane force winds, primarily across the waters north
of Shemya and Attu late Friday night through Saturday morning,
followed by slow weakening. Further east, the low will help
advance the initial front across the eastern Aleutians on
Saturday, bringing widespread gale force winds. It will move into
Bristol Bay Saturday night. While the winds will be the most
hazardous aspect of the front, occasionally heavy rain associated
with it is also expected along the entire Aleutian Chain through
into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The forecast period commences with a longwave ridge from the Gulf
Of Alaska to the Brooks Range with a deep upper level trough over
NE Russia and the Western Aleutians. Meanwhile at the surface at
12z Sunday, both the GFS and the ECMWF have a deep low between
Attu and Adak with a post frontal surface trough extending towards
Hokkaido Japan. Where these two models differ at 12z Sunday is
east of the parent low. The GFS has another surface low over
Bristol Bay and the ECMWF simply has weak troughing. Also the
ECMWF has a secondary low feature south of the chain which the
GFS doesn't have at all and then the GFS spins up a low by 18z
south of the ECMWF's position. This does not bode well for the
confidence level with the remainder of the longterm forecast
package since the divergence amplifies as time elapses. There is
good confidence that this will generally be a wet and windy
pattern for the Aleutians, but the timing of the sensible weather
highlights are a function of the precise track of the lows that
develop. This forecast package reflects a blend of operation and
ensemble data from the models.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning: 178.
         Gales: 119 155 172 174 175 176 177 351 352 411 413.
         Heavy Freezing Spray: 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW
LONG TERM...PS