Storm Warning 131, NWS Anchorage, AK

056 
FZAK51 PAFC 080053
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-081345-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 mb low 100 nm southwest of Middleton Island Wed afternoon 
moves to 125 nm southeast of Middleton Island at 1003 mb by Thu 
afternoon and then moves inland 80 nm north of Sitka at 1008 mb 
by Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-081345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Near
the coast, E wind 50 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ120-081345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-081345-
Resurrection Bay-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-081345-
Prince William Sound-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-081345-
Port Valdez-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-081345-
Valdez Narrows-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-081345-
Valdez Arm-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-081345-
Passage Canal-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-081345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-081345-
Barren Islands East-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-081345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-081345-
Chiniak Bay-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-081345-
Marmot Bay-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-081345-
Shelikof Strait-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 6 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-081345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-081345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-081345-
Kachemak Bay-
353 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

647 
FZAK51 PAFC 081235
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-090200-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 997 mb low 95 nm south of Middleton Island moves to 95 nm
northwest of Sitka at 1010 mb with its front moving inland by midday
Fri. A second front enters the western Gulf Thu afternoon and moves 
across the Gulf for Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-090200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ120-090200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ121-090200-
Resurrection Bay-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-090200-
Prince William Sound-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-090200-
Port Valdez-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-090200-
Valdez Narrows-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-090200-
Valdez Arm-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-090200-
Passage Canal-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
40 kt near Whittier in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts 
to 40 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft 
after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-090200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-090200-
Barren Islands East-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ132-090200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-090200-
Chiniak Bay-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-090200-
Marmot Bay-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-090200-
Shelikof Strait-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-090200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-090200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-090200-
Kachemak Bay-
335 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
642 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

UPDATE TO LONGTERM DISCUSSION

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge continues to drift eastward into the Yukon
Territory while behind it, a broad upper level trough positioned
over the Bering is beginning to move over the northwest part of
the state. Anchoring this trough is a 994 mb surface low situated
just west of Norton Sound. In response, southerly onshore flow is
present across most of Southwest Alaska, which is producing
scattered precipitation and low level stratus.

Looking southward, a North Pacific low has advanced into the Gulf
of Alaska. At the surface and ahead of the low, a leading front
with strong southeasterly winds is gradually lifting to the
northeast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement into the latter half of the
week. It is worth noting that the low moving into the Gulf has a
subtropical connection and there will be warming at low levels due
to this. The different models are varying on how warm it should
get around and near the Gulf. The NAM was the preferred model
overall for this low.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and northerly winds no more than 10 kt should
persist into Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A synoptic pattern shift occurs during the next 24 hours, with
the once dominant ridge across the mainland, shoving off to the
east as a progressive trough takes over. This change brings increased
chances for precipitation across the southern mainland along with
challenges in precipitation type and gale force winds for the
Gulf.

The storm system currently south of Kodiak Island moves a front
along the southern gulf to the northern waters late tonight.
The main issue causing difficulty in defining precipitation type,
is that this warm core system stalls along the eastern Kenai while
a colder core system advances from the west. Precipitation types
will be dependent upon the position of the boundary between them.

Wednesday night through Thursday isolated to scattered showers
will move inland as short waves move ahead of the gulf low. Mixed
precipitation will be possible across the diffuse boundary which
is expected to be stretched along the northern Kenai to the
Chugach Range. Even though there is still uncertainty with the
evolution of this system, accumulations are expected to be light.
The highest snow accumulations are expected along higher elevations
of the northern Kenai to Western Prince William Sound, however narrow
bands of precipitation are possible.

By early Thursday morning the colder air mass from the west
settles across the region changing precipitation types over to all
snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A stalled front draped from Dillingham to Sleetmute will continue
to produce areas of light snow across the southwest interior
through the overnight hours. Closer to the coast, any lingering
precipitation will be in the form of rain showers as the warm,
onshore flow behind the front has increased surface temperatures
into the upper 30s. A deformation zone setting up between the
stalled boundary and a low moving north from the western Gulf will
act to enhance precipitation over the southwest interior later
tonight into Wednesday. The precipitation may begin as a mix of
rain and snow, but change over to all snow as the atmosphere
saturates and colder air begins to wrap into the back side of the
low. Light snow accumulations are possible for locations well
inland such as Sparrevohn and Sleetmute. Conditions then trend
colder and drier Wednesday night into early Thursday as the high
crests over Southwest Alaska. Areas of fog are possible overnight
Wednesday into early Thursday as the stable airmass settles
overhead. A second round of strong winds along the coast and areas
of light snow comes Thursday as another front swings through the
region. This front is fast moving and will weaken as it moves
onshore. Nonetheless, light snow accumulations (1 to 2 inches) are
possible for locations such as Dillingham and Bethel for Thursday.
Snow showers will linger through Thursday night before tapering
off on Friday. Behind the front, high surf and areas of coastal
erosion are possible Thursday night through Friday as prolonged
southwesterly flow with gales develops along the coast behind the
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The first of two strong, Bering lows is currently north of Saint
Matthew Island and will continue to track to north-northeast away
from the forecast area. As it does, the gales and high surf
currently along the coast from Toksook Bay north will diminish.
Underneath the low, a cold and unstable airmass will continue to
produce a few scattered showers overnight from the Pribilofs on
north. Upstream, a ridge of high pressure currently building over
the western Bering and Aleutians will slide east, with the ridge
axis reaching the eastern Aleutians Wednesday. This ridge will
continue to track east and move over west coast Wednesday night in
response to the next Kamchatka low and associated front moving
into the western Bering. Southerly gales will develop along the
front as it slides over western Aleutians Wednesday morning. The
front and gales will propagate east over central Bering and
Aleutians Wednesday afternoon and evening and over the eastern
Bering Thursday morning. The Kamchatka low will also strengthen as
it tracks into the western Bering Wednesday night. As it does,
a large area of westerly gales will overspread much of the Bering
with a smaller area of storm-force situated on the southern
periphery the center of circulation. This low will be of similar
strength and take a similar track to the now departing low,
creating a prolonged westerly fetch across the Bering. Given
this, high surf and coastal erosion are possible from the
Kuskokwim Bay north to Hooper Bay late Thursday through Friday as
the center of circulation makes its closest approach.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

An active pattern will be on tap for the Bering, Aleutians and
Southwest AK Friday to Tuesday. The longwave pattern features
trough bisecting the Bering and a high amplitude ridge from SE AK
to the Yukon Territory. At the surface there is a low East of
Kamchatka and another low south of Kodiak. As time elapses, this
energy will shift eastward. In the beginning of the period there
is good clustering between the latest runs of the
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian Regional. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF
have converged compared to the solutions from 24 hrs ago. However,
given the vagaries models past 96 hrs, blending and hedging is
still required. Saturday looks like it will be driest day this
forecast period for the Anchorage metro area.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 411. Gales 119 120 131 132 150 177-179 185 351 352
412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...PS